Export prices of cereals and flour in dollars per ton, including VAT 0% (Franco-border) on 03.06.2019

Station name

wheat 3 class, gluten

wheat 4 class

wheat 5 class

barley

flour

terms of supply

23-24%

27-30%

2 class

extra class

first-rate

second-rate

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Petropavlovsk (South-Ural Railway)

184-187

201-204

176-179

174-177

278-283

254-259

229-234

DAP

Sary-agash

204-207

224-227

200-203

187-190

290-295

266-271

242-247

DAP

Lugovaya

203-206

221-224

198-201

191-194

288-293

264-269

239-244

DAP

Tobol

196-199

216-219

189-192

177-180

288-293

260-265

237-242

DAP

port of Aktau

216-219

233-236

208-211

203-206

306-311

281-286

258-263

FOB

Bekabad

223-226

241-244

218-221

212-215

314-319

289-294

276-281

СРТ

Hajraton

273-276

293-296

265-208

260-263

348-353

336-341

301-306

СРТ

Turgundi

273-276

291-294

260-263

265-268

298-303

271-276

244-249

СРТ

Sarahs

251-254

To avoid the risks of reducing grain exports, it is necessary to think about its quality

About half of the total grain amount harvested in Kazakhstan is exported. According to the forecasts, in the current 2018-19 FY, exports will be approximately 9.5 million tons. The directions of exports and its amount in individual countries changes every year, depending on market conditions, harvests in importing countries and many other factors.

A special place in Kazakhstan’s grain exports is given to the region of Central Asia, where most of it goes. Uzbekistan takes the largest part of wheat, as flour milling industry grows here. Afghanistan prefers more flour. Tajikistan buys good volumes of grain; China is catching up with it. Russia does not refuse Kazakhstani grain and flour as well, despite its growing harvests. Italy also appreciated Kazakhstani wheat. But, according to experts’ forecasts, in the current year, the climatic conditions (rainfall) will allow receiving a good harvest for farmers in the Asian region, which carries risks for Kazakhstan’s grain exports. This year, according to the analyst of the «Kazakh-Zerno» NA, promises to be just that.

World market

In March, wheat prices on the forward market changed not so unambiguously as in February and in much more moderate dynamics. The volatility of wheat quotes in the United States during the month was high. We recall that in the last week of February on the CBOT wheat contracts fell from $4.9175 to $4.5725/bushel, or 7 percent ($ 168 per ton). And the total fall for February was more than 12 percent. In early March, they fell again, reaching the lows of the season. Then for two weeks the American wheat rose, but by the end of March it decreased again, and as a result it changed insignificantly.

European wheat quotes fluctuated less sharply. As a result, British wheat increased to a small extent, while French wheat fell by more than 3 percent. American corn and soybeans fell in March to a various extent. On the foreign exchange market, during March the US dollar either rose or fell sharply against the pound, but as a result, its exchange rate strengthened over the period against this currency. Against the euro the US dollar had not less deep ups and downs, but with the same result. This further reduced the value of European quotes in the equivalentUS dollars amount. In US dollars per ton, from March 1 to March 29, in London wheat prices rose by 0.4 percent, in Paris they fell by 3.6percent, and in Chicago they rose by 0.1percent. Corn in the USA decreased by 4.4percent and soybeans — by 3percent. In euro equivalent rapeseed in Paris increased by 0.5percent and corn — by 5percent.

The week from March 1 to March 8 turned out to be a period of universal decline in wheat prices in the United States, Britain and France. Quotes of wheat on the SBOT in Chicago broke all past records in the fall of their values, and by the beginning of March they had reached new lower minimums of value in the current 2018-19 MY. But this did not become the lower seasonal limit. Wheat quotes moved actively down during the first week of March as well. American corn and soybeans also fell. Only rapeseed and corn rose in Paris. During the past week, the US dollar in the foreign exchange market strengthened its position against the euro and the pound, pushing European wheat down in its nominal value.

By mid-March, wheat quotes in the United States rose from the bottom of the season, rising by more than 5 percent in the week from March 8 to March 15. We recall that wheat in the United States began to decline sharply from mid-February and this lasted until the first decade of March. However, it has not still got out of the range of $ 5 per bushel upwards. In Europe, there is also a general strengthening of quotes in Britain and in France, after a general fall a week earlier. American corn and soybeans played up their past fall. Last week, in the foreign exchange market, the US dollar strongly fluctuated in different directions against the pound due to the uncertainty with the question of Brexit in Britain, but eventually the US dollar fell. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar rose sharply against the euro, but then went down more definitely and also turned out to be in the red against this currency. Thus, the US dollar supported the American equivalent of European wheat.

During the week from March 15 to March 22, wheat prices in the United States increased again, but not as sharply as a week earlier. In Britain, wheat, on the contrary, slightly increased the dynamics of growth. In France, it fluctuated all week in different directions, but in the end remained at the same level. American corn and soybeans went in different directions. Corn continued to rise, and soybeans went down after growth. The small dynamics of French wheat can be partially explained by the exchange rate last week. The US dollar fell and rose against the euro during the period, but eventually fell from 0.883 to 0.875 euro per 1 US dollar. French wheat, while remaining in place, strengthened its position in the American equivalent. A completely different course of the US dollar took place with a pound. The US dollar rose to against the pound from 0.7507 to 0.7613 pounds per dollar for the week.

The week from March 22 to March 29 on the stock exchanges of the USA and Europe for the quotes of wheat, corn, soybean and rape ended with a negative result. Wheat prices fell to various extent. French wheat for May delivery fell the most, and a week earlier it did not change. Quotes of wheat in the United States and Britain turned down and fell within a percent. Over the period, the US dollar rose significantly against the euro, to a lesser extent against the pound. This weakened the position of European wheat in US equivalent.

From March 1 to March 29, on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), wheat quotes grew from 4.5725 to $ 4.5775 / bushel, or by 1.8 percent ($ 168.2 per ton). Corn decreased from 3.73 to $ 3.565 / bushel, or 5.8percent ($ 140.1 per ton). Soybeans fell from $ 9.11 to $ 8.8425 / bushel, or 2.2 percent ($ 324.9 per ton).

In Europe, from March 1 to March 29, at the LIFFE exchange in London, wheat quotes rose from 160.45 to 163.8 pounds per ton, or 0.3 percent ($ 213.3). Between March 1 and March 29, wheat quotes in May decreased from 191.25 to 186 euros per ton, or 1.6 percent ($ 209.3), futures for September delivery changed daily, but remained at 177.5 euros per ton ($ 198.9)

On the stock exchange in Paris from March 1 to March 29, rapeseed futures increased from 355.5 to 357.25 euros per ton, or $ 400.4 per ton. The futures for June delivery rose from 160 to 168 euros per ton, or $ 188.3 per ton.

Expert forecasts

On March 28, the next report of the International Grains Council for the 2018-19 season was released. In contrast to the dynamics of quotes, it turned out to be positive in terms of production forecast, as well as estimates for consumption and volume of trade. The production forecast was raised from 2,125 to 2,175 million tons, consumption — from 2,170 to 2,204 million tons, trade — from 368 to 369 million tons. However, the forecast for closing grain stocks decreased from 604 to 575 million tons.

Separately, the IGC raised its production forecast for wheat in the 2018–19 MY from 735 to 759 million tons, the volume of trade will likely grow from 171 to 174 million tons, and consumption — from 742 to 752 million tons. Carryover stocks will increase from 264 to 270 million tons.

Corn production forecast was increased from 1,114 to 1,124 million tons, trade volume promise to fall from 161 to 160 million tons, and consumption forecast rose from 1,148 to 1,162 million tons. Carryover stocks sank from 305 to 266 million tons.

Forecasts regarding the rice balance increased in all respects. Production — from 500 to 505 million tons, trade — from 47 to 48 million tons, consumption — from 493 to 499 million tons, and carryover stocks — from 157 to 162 million tons.

Cash market of agricultural crops in March

In March, cash wheat on FOB basis in France, the USA and Russia fell to various extent. In inter-American region, SRW wheat has the least decline. Wheat in the ports of Russia on the basis of the Black Sea fell to the same extent. French wheat and American HRW wheat with a protein content of 11 percent moved down a little further. American HRS wheat with a high protein content of 14 percent lost most of all in the USA.

On the barley market, the situation is somewhat different. During the period, the French barley rose, and the Russian has declined significantly. But French barley dropped significantly earlier in February. Now in March the price difference between French and Russian wheat has grown from 10 to 12 US dollars, and between barley has decreased from 21 to 9 US dollars. American corn grew in March, while Russian corn dropped to about the same extent. Soybeans from the United States and Argentina declined, the first to a lesser and the second to a greater extent.

In February, on the forward market, quotes for wheat, corn, soybeans and rapeseed decreased significantly and everywhere, after the same total growth in January. The fall of wheat in the United States has reached an altitude of 10 percent, while in Europe it remains within this indicator. Compared to wheat, the decline in American corn and soybeans was more moderate. The fall in quotations on the forward market caused a wave of falling prices in the cash market.

In February, wheat and barley on FOB basis collapsed everywhere. In the ports of France, the USA and Russia, wheat lost from $ 17 to $ 21 per ton. The exception was only high-protein HRS wheat from the United States, which has strengthened its positions. Barley also declined significantly: in France — to a greater extent, and in Russia — to a lesser extent. In January, Russian wheat and barley on FOB basis lost their price advantage. In February, the price advantage of French wheat and barley over Russian grain almost did not change, although it changed in its indicators during February.

Russia

Sowing campaign

In July, the dynamics of Russian cereals were contradictory and varied in different directions. But in the end, most cereals finished the month in the minus column. The exception was barley, which persistently moved upwards all month. In the wheat segment, wheat of 4 class fell most, while the feed wheat and wheat of 3 class fell almost equally. In absolute terms, corn lost most of all.

However, unlike domestic prices, the opposite movement was observed in the export market. In the FOB cash market, Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports increased by $34, from $198 to $232 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose $ 30, from $190 to $ 225 per ton. Corn in July fell, then rose by $4 and as a result remained at the level of $186 per ton. In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar rose by August 3 to 63,1358 rubles per U.S dollar and further lowered Russian grain crops in its nominal value.The dynamics of the decline in Russian grain in this currency turned out to be sharper than in rubles.

In total, from June 29 to August 3, in Russia, wheat of 3 class dropped by 150 rubles per ton, or by 1.4 percent, wheat of 4 class — by 190 rubles per ton, or by 1.9 percent, and feed wheat — by 115 rubles per ton, or by 1.3 percent. Food rye decreased by 110 rubles per ton, or by 1.3 percent, barley rose by 460 rubles per ton, or by 5 percent, and corn fell by 200 rubles per ton, or by 2.2 percent. Peas rose by 305 rublesperton, orby 3.4 percent.

From June 1 to June 29, in the American equivalent, wheat of 3 class decreased by $6.9, or by 4 percent, wheat of 4 class — by $8.7 per ton, or 3.4 percent, forage wheat — by $7.3 per ton, or 5 percent. Food rye fell by $3 per ton, or 3 percent, barley increased by $ 3.6 per ton, or 3 percent, while corn fell $5 per ton, or 3.4 percent. Peasroseby$3.8 perton, orby 2.6 percent.

According to recent reports of the administrative bodies of the AIC of the subjects of the Russian Federation, as of August 17, cereals and leguminous crops were threshed on an area of 22.3 million hectares, or 47.9 percent of the acreage (in 2017 — 17.8 million hectares). About 69.4 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2017 — 70.8 million tons), with a yield of 31.2 quintals per hectare, which is 8.6 quintals per hectare less than the same date last year (in 2017 39.8 q / ha). Of these, winter and spring wheat has been threshed on an area of 15.4 million ha, or 56.6 percent of the sown area (in 2017 — 13.0 million hectares), 52.9 million tons of grain have been harvested (in 2017 g — 55.7 million tons), with a yield of 34.3 q / ha (in 2017 — 42.7 q / ha). Winter and spring barley is threshed on an area of 4.1 million hectares, or 49.6 percent of the sown area (in 2017 — 3.3 million hectares), 10.5 million tons are harvested (in 2017 – 10.8 million tons), with a yield of 25.4 q/ ha (in 2017 — 33.3 q / ha).

In the Southern Federal District, cereals and legumes were threshed on an area of 7.3 million hectares, or 80.8 percent of the sown area (in 2017 — 7.1 million hectares), 25.5 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2017 — 30.1 million tons), with a yield of 34.8 q/ ha (in 2017 — 42.2 q/ ha).

In the North Caucasian Federal District 2.5 million hectares were threshed, or 77.5percent of the sown area (2.5 million hectares in 2017), 9.2 million tons of grain were threshed (in 2017 — 10.4 million tons), with a yield of 36.2 q / ha (in 2017 — 41.2 q/ ha).

The Central Federal District 5.9 million hectares were threshed, or 73.8 percent of the sown area (in 2017 — 4.1 million hectares), 21.7 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2017 — 18, 8 million hectares), with a yield of 36.9 q/ ha (in 2017 — 45.3 q/ ha).

In the Volga Federal District, 6.1 million hectares, or 46.5 percent of the sown area, were threshed (3.3 million hectares in 2017), 12.1 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2017 – 10.1 million tons), with a yield of 19.9 q/ ha (in 2017 — 30.1 q/ ha).

In the North-West Federal District, 103.6 thousand hectares were threshed, or 33.8 percent of the sown area (23.2 thousand ha in 2017), 311.9 thousand tons of grain were harvested (in 2017 — 107.5 thousand tons), with a yield of 30.1 q/ ha (in 2017 — 46.3 q/ ha).

About 77.2 thousand hectares were threshed in the Far Eastern Federal District, or 23.6 percnet of the area under cultivation (115.4 thousand ha in 2017), 150.8 thousand tons of grain were harvested (in 2017 – 244.2 thousand tons), with a yield of 19.5 q / ha (in 2017 — 21.2 q/ ha).

In the Siberian Federal District, 205.1 thousand hectares were threshed, or 2.3 percent of the sown area (in 2017 — 451.9 thousand hectares), 440.2 thousand tons of grain were harvested (in 2017 – 951.7 thousand tons), with a yield of 21.5 q/ha (in 2017 — 21.1 q/ ha).

In the Urals Federal District, 37.8 thousand hectares, or 1.1 percent of the sown area (in 2017 — 76.6 thousand hectares) were threshed, 81.9 thousand tons of grain were harvested (in 2017 — 210, 1 thousand tons), with a yield of 21.7 q/ ha (in 2017 — 27.4 q / ha).

Rapeseed is threshed on an area of 213.0 thousand hectares, or 13.5 percent of the sown area (in 2017 — 145.8 thousand hectares). 411.0 thousand tons were harvested (in 2017 – 320.3 thousand tons), with a yield of 19.3 q/ ha (in 2017 – 22.0 q/ ha). Fiber flax was harvested on an area of 10.9 thousand hectares or 24.5 percent of the sown area (in 2017, 5.6 q/ ha). Soybeans in the Krasnodar Territory is threshed on an area of 10.7 thousand hectares or 5 percent of the sown area (in 2017 — 6,000 hectares). 12.6 thousand tons were harvested (9,0 q/ ha in 2017), with a yield of 11,8 q / ha (in 2017 — 19,8 q / ha).

The sowing of winter crops for the harvest- 2019 was carried out on an area of 390.9 thousand hectares, or 2.3 percent of the forecasted area (in 2017 — 96.5 thousand hectares).

Expert Forecasts

In the July report of the International Grains Council (IGC) in 2017 — 18 MY, the grain balance for Russia looked as follows. With opening stocks of 17.8 million tons, the production forecast amounted to 127.5 million tons of grain, import — 0.4 million tons, total annual grain supply — 145.6 million tons. Consumption for food, feed and industrial purposeswas at the level of 72.3 million tons, and exports — 53.9 million tons. Closing stocks at the end of the season are determined at 19.4 million tons.

For the 2018-19 MY IGC estimated the opening at the level of 19.4 million tons. The production forecast has been reduced from 111.9 to 103.9 million tons, while imports remained the same — 0.5 million tons. The total supply has been adjusted downwards from 131.8 to 123.7 million tons. Domestic consumption has been reduced from 71.6 to 70.6 million tons and exports — from 44.8 to 39.8 million tons. The closing stocks of the season are reduced from 15.3 to 13.4 million tons.

Separately for wheat in Russia in 2017 — 18 MY, IGC determined opening stocks at the level of 15.2 million tons, production — 84.9 million tons with an import of 0.3 million tons. The total wheat supply was increased from 98.7 to 100.4 million tons, domestic consumption was reduced from 41.7 to 41.6 million tons, and exports were increased from 39.2 to 42.2 million tons. Closing stocks of the season have been reduced from 17.9 to 16.7 million tons.

For the 2018-19 MY, in July, the opening wheat stocks were reduced from 17.9 to 16.7 million tons. Production decreased from 70.9 to 66 million tons, imports — 0.3 million tons. The total seasonal wheat supply has been reduced from 87.7 to 83 million tons. Consumption decreased to 41.3 million tons, exports decreased from 33.7 to 30.3 million tons. Closing stocks of the season are reduced from 12.8 to 11.4 million tons.

Market situation in March

In June, the trend of Russian grain crops has changed and almost all major crops fell down, except food rye. In the wheat segment, wheat of 4 class dropped the most. Feed wheat fell less sharply, and wheat of 3 class even less. Barley and corn fell almost in equal measure. The change in dynamics for a recession may have a seasonal character in view of the fast arrival of new grain to the market. However, in Russia, forecasts for the crop-2018 fall due to drought in some areas in the south of Russia and, apparently, this year there will not be such an abundant harvest as last year. But this factor does not affect positively the price conjuncture.

The dynamics of the U.S. dollar against the ruble was multidirectional during the month, but in the end, the U.S. dollar rose during the period and further shifted Russian wheat down in its nominal value. In the FOB cash market, Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports fell by $ 10, from $208 to $198 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea fell by $12, from $202 to $190 per ton. Corn fell by $7, from $193 to $186 per ton.

In total, from June 1 to June 29 in Russia, wheat of 3 class dropped by 105 rubles per ton, or by 1 percent, wheat of 4 class — by 315 rubles per ton, or by 3.1 percent, and feed wheat — by 210 rubles per ton, or by 2.4 percent. Food rye rose by 40 rubles per ton, or 0.6 percent, barley decreased by 180 rubles per ton, or 2 percent, and corn by 150 rubles per ton, or by 1.6 percent. Peas rose by 595 rubles per ton, or by 6.9 percent.

From June 1 to June 29, in the American equivalent, wheat of 3 class fell by $3.2, or 1.8 percent, wheat of 4 class — by $6.5 per ton, or 4 percent, feed wheat — by $4.8 per ton, or by 3.3 percent. Food rye fell by $0.2 per ton, or 0.2 percent, barley — by $3.9 per ton, or 2.8 percent, and corn — by $3.8 per ton, or 2.5 percent. Peas rose by $8.2 per ton, or 6 percent.

Export market

On August 17, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia held a meeting with the largest grain exporters. During the meeting, the forecast grain balance was discussed, taking into account the grain production estimates for the current year, carryover stocks as of July 1, 2013, domestic consumption volumes, and export plans corresponding to the general market situation.

Exporters preliminarily expressed their intention to purchase and sell grain until the end of 2018 and for the entire marketing year 2018/2019. The relevant information will be sent to the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia on a weekly basis.

The Ministry is confident that further dialogue with market participants will prove to be no less productive. It was decided to hold similar meetings on a monthly basis.

At present, the situation in the grain market is stable and predictable. According to recent reports of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, as of August 15, 2018, in the current 2018/2019 MY, 6,798 thousand tons of grain were exported, which is 46.1 percent more than in the same period last season (4,653 thousand tons).

According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, as of August 16, 2018, the average price for wheat of 3 class was 9,323 rubles / ton (+ 2 percent per week), for wheat of 4 class – 8,383 rubles / ton (+ 2 percent per week), for wheat of 5 class – 7,570 rubles / ton (+ 2percent per week), for forage barley – 7,859 rubles per ton (+ 4 percent per week).

Kazakhstan

Sown areas in the 2018-19 MY

According to the Committee on Statistics of the Ministry of Economy of Kazakhstan, the sown area of crops (preliminary) in 2018 amounted to 22 million hectares, including 13.2 million hectares for agricultural enterprises, 8.6 million hectares for individual entrepreneurs and peasant or private farms, households — 0.2 million hectares.

About 15.1 million hectares, or 68.8 percent, of the total sowing area are sown with grains and legumes, 3.4 million hectares, or 15.6 percent — with forage crops, 2.8 million hectares, or 12.9 percent with vegetables and melons, root crops and tubers — 0.5 million hectares, or 2.1 percent. The majority of cereals and legumes is in Akmola region — 4.3 million hectares, or 28.5 percent, Kostanay — 4.1 million hectares, or 26.8 percent, the North Kazakhstan — 2.8 million hectares, or 18.5 percent. The major part of forage crops accounts for Kostanay region — 0.6 million hectares (18.5 percent), the North Kazakhstan region — 0.4 million hectares (12 percent), Akmola region — 0.4 million hectares (10.7 percent), the East Kazakhstan — 0.3 million hectares (8.4 percent). Oil-bearing crops are mainly concentrated in the North-Kazakhstan regiont — 1 million hectares (34.4 percent), in Kostanay — 0.4 million hectares (15.1 percent) and the East Kazakhstan region — 0.4 million hectares (15.8 percent).

Harvesting campaign

As of August 22, Kazakhstan harvested 2 million tons of grain, the gross harvest is expected to exceed 20 million tons. This was reported by Deputy Prime Minister, Agriculture Minister UmirzakShukeyev at a government meeting. «The harvesting of grain crops continues in the republic. On August 22, harvesting operations of cereals were almost completed in Zhambyl, Turkestan regions – 95 percent and 96 percent. The yield in these regions averaged 21 q/ ha. Harvesting continues in Aktobe, Almaty, the West Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, Kyzylorda, the East Kazakhstan region. Harvested area of grain crops of these regions is 3 million hectares. Of these, 1.1 million hectares have been harvested, which is 36.3 percent, «the head of the ministry said. «About 2 million tons have been harvested with an average yield of 18.1 quintals per hectare. In general, the gross grain harvest is projected at the level of more than 20 million tons, which is a good result in the harsh conditions of the current season,» Shukeyev added. Condition of cereals. Storage In the northern regions of Kazakhstan there is a high humidity of crops. Taking into account the climate, there is not much time to complete the harvesting operations. At the same time, in spite of weather conditions, harvesting in the regions should be carried out at the proper level. In this regard, akims of the regions are instructed to take the necessary organizational measures for the timely conduct of harvesting operations. Particular attention is given to the technical equipment of grain elevators and vegetable stores for the reception and processing of this year’s harvest. The provision of the necessary equipment during the ongoing work is entrusted to be taken on special control. As it was noted with regard to the availability of grain storage capacity: the total capacity in the republic is 26.7 million tons, including 13.7 million tons at grain receiving enterprises, 13 million tons for agricultural producers. The specified capacity is sufficient to store the forecast yield, taking into account the remnants of previous years. Expert Forecasts In August, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised the forecast for grain production for Kazakhstan in the 2018-19 MY. Now it is comparable to last year’s harvest and lower by only 0.7 million tons. Last year, with the opening stocks of 3.7 million tons, production amounted to 19.3 and with low import, the total supply of the 2017-18 MY amounted to 23 million tons. For the current season, with the opening stocks of 3.2 million tons, grain production increased from 17.8 to 18.6 million tons, imports remained the same — 0.1 million tons, seasonal balance was increased from 21.2 to 22 million tons. Domestic consumption increased from 9.8 to 10 million tons, exports rose from 8.7 to 9.2 million tons and closing stocks from 2.7 to 2.8 million tons. Last season, consumption and exports were comparable — 10.2 and 9.7 million tons. IGC forecasts for wheat are almost identical with the USDA forecasts for production, which indicates a high probability of their implementation in reality. The forecast of wheat production is increased, although it is at a lower level than last year. With beginning wheat stocks of 2.9 million tons, production increased from 13.7 to 14.2 million tons, the total supply — from 16.7 to 17.2 million tons. The level of domestic consumption remained the same — 6.5 million tons, and exports rose from 7.8 to 8.3 million tons. Closing stocks of the season will be at the level of 2.4 million tons. Compared with last year, the opening stocks this year will be lower — 3.2 million tons in 2017-18 MY, wheat production — 14.8 million tons, total supply — 18 million tons, consumption — 6.9 million tons. However, exports remained at the level of the previous year — 8.3 million tons, from which the closing stocks this season will be reduced by 0.5 million tons. The USDA in the August survey increased the forecast for wheat production in Kazakhstan from 14 million to 14.5 million tons in 2018/19 MY (July 2018-June 2019). The estimation of Kazakhstani wheat export in comparison with July did not change and amounted to 8.5 million tons. The forecast of import of wheat is also kept at the level of 60 thousand tons. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the gross harvest of grain of the current year is expected at the level of 21-22 million tons. In 2017, gross wheat harvest amounted to 14.8 million tons, which is only 1.2 percent inferior to the indicator a year earlier. At the same time, the average yield of Kazakhstani wheat in 2017 reached 12.4 q / ha, exceeding by 16 percent the average for the last 5 years. Grain stocks The cost of grain in Kazakhstan for the first month of the new season (July) has become lower than in previous periods, although the volumes of seeds also decreased, but in much smaller amounts. As previously reported, in June, sowing in the northern regions of Kazakhstan continued and seed use accounted for 36 percent of the total grain loss. But seed use in June was lower than in May. Moreover, during the sowing campaign in Kazakhstan, 13,506 tons of grain seeds were left unused, or 8 percent, which were fixed in balances as of July 1, at the beginning of a new marketing season. The May sowing campaign in Kazakhstan raked more than 50 percent of grain seeds from barns. According to the Committee on Statistics of Kazakhstan, as of May 1, 1,689,832 tons of grain was procured for seeds to the large sowing campaign in grain-growing regions. According to the Committee on Statistics, by June 1, 7,022,541 tons of grain were registered in the republic. On July 1, the statisticians counted 5,190,837 tons of grain in barns, with a decrease from June 1 to July 1 at 1,831,704 tons, or 26.1 percent to the level of May. In the relative ratio, the amount of grain for seeds fell the most. By August 1, the volume of grain decreased by 812,366 tons to 4,378,471 tons, or by 15.7 percent. The amount of food grain has decreased by 695,729 tons, from 4,475,501 to 3,779,772 tons, or 15.5 percent. Seed fund of grain decreased by 41,741 tons, from 135,096 to 93,355 tons, or by 30.9 percent. The volume of feed grain decreased by 74,896 tons, from 580,239 to 505,343 tons, or by 13 percent. This year, the grain volume has decreased more than in the past. In 2017, for July, grain reserves in Kazakhstan decreased by 595,137 tons, or by 12.5 percent. Grain market condition In Kazakhstan, wheat has risen in price sharply, and the price for it will continue to grow — the Ministry of Agriculture forecasts. Already, a ton of wheat of 3 class costs 48-49 thousand tenge. This is 13 thousand tenge more than last year, the department notes. In Kazakhstan, the price of wheat is expected to increase. «If last year wheat was sold at the level of 35 thousand tenge per ton, then today the wheat of 3class costs already 48-49 thousand tenge. We expect further price increases,» the Minister of Agriculture informed. He noted that today preparatory work is being carried out to export grain of the new crop so that the last year’s situation with a shortage of grain carriers will not repeat. In the regular mode, work is being done both to reduce high tariffs for the transportation of Kazakhstani goods through transit countries, and to search for alternative routes. Together with government agencies, work is being done to timely address logistics issues. Exchange trade of grain In July, compared with June in the section of agricultural products at the ETS, the volume of wheat sales increased significantly, although the number of transactions decreased by one. Sales in tons increased 1.68 times, and in monetary terms 1.79 times. Excess of growth in tenge over growth in tons shows higher price capacity of wheat in July. All sold wheat belongs to 3 class. The bases of sale in the unequal share are DAP and EXW. In total, for July, from June 29 to August 3, 22 deals were implemented with the sale of 150,375 tons of wheat of 3 class, amounting to 7,428,093,250 tenge. On the export basisof DAP, 5 deals were made and 11,000 tons were sold, amounting to 525,978,000 tenge, and on the EXW basis 17 deals with the sale of 139,375 tons, amounting to 6,902,115,250 tenge.

At the moment, the following domestic prices are formed:

***

Сurrently, you can buy wheat of 3 class from new harvest in Astana for 42,800 tenge per ton. First-rate flour in the capital of our country costs 79,000 tenge per ton. Second-rate flour is sold at 77,000 tenge per ton. Flour of extra-class costs 80,500 tenge per ton.

A ton of wheat of 3 class can be purchased for 42,900 tenge, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent – for 47,900 tenge per ton, barley of a 2 class now costs 39,600 tenge per ton in Akmola region. Flour of extra class costs 80,500 tenge, first- and second-rate flour is offered at 79,000 tenge and 77,000 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is sold by 40,500 tenge per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent — by 44,100 tenge. The current price of barley is 38,100 tenge per ton. In the North Kazakhstan the price of flour of extra class is 76,500 tenge per ton; first-rate flour costs 74,500 tenge and second-rate flour costs 72,500 tenge per ton.

In Kostanay region the price of wheat of 3 class rose to the level of 41,300 tenge per ton. Wheat with gluten content above 27 percent is sold at 45,900 tenge. The price of barley of 2 class is 39,300 tenge per ton. The market price of flour of all classes went down: extra class – to 78,300 tenge per ton, first-rate – to 76,800 tenge and second-rate flour to 74,800 tenge per ton.

In Pavlodar region the price of wheat of 3 class is 42,500 tenge per ton. The price of barley is 39,300 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class costs 79,500 tenge per ton, first-rate flour costs 78,000 tenge per ton, second-rate flour costs 76,000 tenge per ton.

In Karaganda region wheat of 3 class costs 42,200 tenge per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent costs 45,900 tenge per ton. The price of barley is 40,100 tenge per ton. In Karaganda, traders sell flour of all rates at the following prices: first-rate – 78,300 tenge per ton, second-rate –76,300 tenge per ton and extra class –79,800 tenge per ton.

Wheat prices grew in the East and west Kazakhstan regions over the past period. In the East Kazakhstan region of the country the price of wheat of 3 class fixed at 39,400 tenge per ton, barley – 40,600 tenge per ton. In the West of the country wheat of 3 class costs 43,900 tenge. The cost of first-rate flour in East Kazakhstan is 81,600 tenge per ton, second-rate flour costs 79,700 tenge, per ton, and flour of extra class – 83,100 tenge per ton. In the West Kazakhstan prices for flour are as follows: extra class costs 82,200 tenge, first-rate –80,700 tenge, second-rate-78,700 tenge, respectively.

In Almaty region the price of wheat of 3 class for today is offered by 48,900 tenge per ton. Barley of 2 class is sold at 42,000 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 84,500 tenge per ton, first-rate – 83,000 tenge per ton, second-rate – 81,000 tenge per ton.

In Zhambyl region the price of wheat of 3 class for today costs 48,500 tenge per ton, barley of 2 class is sold by 42,100 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 85,600 tenge per ton, first-rate –84,100 tenge per ton, second-rate – 82,100 tenge per ton.

In the South Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is offered by 50,600 tenge per ton, barley – by 40,800 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 87,300 tenge per ton, first-rate – 85,800 tenge per ton, second-rate –83,800 tenge per ton.

In Aktobe region wheat of 3 class is offered by 48,000 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class can be purchased for 84,700 per ton, first-rate – 83,200 tenge per ton, second-rate – 81,200 tenge per ton.

In Kyzylorda region wheat of 3 class is sold currently at 50,200 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class is 85,400 tenge per ton, first-rate – 83,900 tenge per ton and second-rate – 81,900 tenge per ton.

In the south capital, Almaty, you can buy wheat of 3 class by 48,900 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class costs in Almaty 84,500 tenge per ton, first-rate – 83,000, and second-rate – 81,000 tenge per ton, respectively.

Export

The cost of wheat of 3 class with gluten content of 23 percent on DAP terms at the station Lugovaya (Kazakhstan – Kyrgyzstan) is $142-147per ton, with gluten content of 27-30 percent — $149-154 per ton. Barley costs $162-167 per ton. Flour of extra class is sold at $261-266; the cost of first-rate flour is $237-242 and the second-rate -$ 212-217 per ton.

At the elevators of the South Ural railway the current cost of wheat of 3 class is $127-132 per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent — $132-137. The price of barley there is $143-148 per ton. Flour of extra class can be bought by $253-258; first-rate flour is $229-234 and the second-rate — $204-209 per ton, respectively.

At the station Sary-Agash (Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan, DAP) wheat of 3 class costs $149-154, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent – $155-160. The price of barley there is $166-171. Flour of extra class can be bought by $264-269, first-rate flour is $240-245 and the second-rate -$216-221 per ton.

At the station Tobol (DAP) wheat of 3 class costs $136-141, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent – $142-147. Barley is sold by $155-160 per ton. Flour of extra class can be bought by $262-267, first-rate flour is $234-239 and the second-rate -$211-216 per ton.

The average price of wheat of 3 class at the station Hajraton (Uzbekistan – Tajikistan, CPT) is $209-214 per ton; wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent is sold at $218-223 per ton. Barley can be bought by $231-237 per ton. Flour of extra class is offered by $322-327, first-rate flour is $310-315 and the second-rate — $275-280 per ton.

In the port of Aktau on FOB conditions wheat is sold at $153-158, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent is sold at $160-165, barley — $173-178. Flour of extra class is sold at $279-284, first-rate flour – by $254-259 and second-rate — by $231-236 per ton.

Reference: $1 = 379 tenge; 1 euro = 429 tenge; 1 ruble = 5.93 tenge

Alimbek Gabitov

Оцените статью
Kazakhzerno
Добавить комментарий