Grain export prices of February 12, 2020

The summary table of prices for grain crops and flour in tenge per ton in Kazakhstan as of February 12, 2020, incl. VAT 12%

Name of the region	wheat, grade 3, with gluten		wheat, grade 4	wheat, grade 5	barley	Flour
Name of the region	23-24%	27-30%	wheat, grade 4	wheat, grade 5	barley	premium	1 grade	2 grade
Akmola	79000	84500	64700	57100	53400	135500	120500	103800
Aktobe	82400	—	68900	61300	55300	139000	124000	109200
Almaty	80500	—	66200	58600	55700	137200	122200	107500
East Kazakhstan	79300	—	65900	57800	55000	136000	121000	107300
Zhambyl	80100	—	66000	58400	56700	138000	123000	108300
West Kazakhstan	79900	—	66200	58600	—	137700	123700	109000
Karaganda	81200	86500	67900	60300	53900	136500	121500	106800
Kyzylorda	81900	—	67600	61300	—	137700	122700	109000
Kostanay	79600	85200	65300	57700	53900	134500	119500	104800
Pavlodar	79800	—	66500	57900	53800	135600	120600	105900
North Kazakhstan	78300	85800	64000	56200	53400	133500	118500	103800
Turkestan	80200	86300	66100	58500	55900	138100	123100	108400
city Nur Sultan	78800	85400	66000	57700	—	136400	121400	106700
Almaty city	81600	—	67600	60000	—	138600	123600	107900

Export prices for grain crops and flour in dollars per ton, incl. VAT 0% (ex-elevator) as of 12.02.2020

Station name	wheat, grade 3, with gluten		wheat, grade 4	wheat, grade 5	Barley	Flour			Delivery conditions
	23-24%	27-30%	—		2 grade	premium	1 grade	2 grade
	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale
Petropavlovsk station (South Ural Railway)	224-227	251-254	214-217	—	147-150	316-321	282-287	257-262	DAP
station Sary-agash	243-246	270-273	233-236	—	166-169	335-340	301-306	276-281	DAP
Lugovaya station	239-244	266-269	229-232	—	162-165	332-336	297-302	272-277	DAP
Tobol station	233-236	260-263	223-226	—	156-159	325-330	291-296	266-271	DAP
port of Aktau	253-256	280-283	243-246	—	176-179	345-350	311-316	286-291	FOB
Bekabad station	267-270	294-297	257-260	—	190-193	359-364	325-330	300-305	СРТ
Hairaton Station	297-300	323-326	287-290	—	220-223	389-394	355-359	330-335	СРТ
Turgundi station	294-297	321-324	284-287	—	217-220	386-391	352-357	327-332	СРТ
station Sarahs	—	—	—	—	222-225	—	—	—	—

In this year, the peasants have a choice: either get a good harvest, or go broke

Kazakhstan agricultural producers are on the agenda preparing for the upcoming sowing campaign. Among other concerns, such as retaining moisture in the fields, repairing machinery, and fueling, the farmers are faced with the task of fully filling the barns with seeds for sowing. Harvest in 2019 was not plentiful compared to previous periods. Farmers feel a shortage of grain for its sale, to replenish financial resources, and for the procurement of high-quality seeds. In the coming year, Kazakhstan needs a rich harvest as never before to fall further into the grain deficit pit, which, judging by the available grain reserves, is already outlined, an analyst at KazakhZerno.kz believes. Indeed, by the end of the season after the sowing campaign according to estimates, including by foreign experts, Kazakhstan may remain with record low grain reserves.

Contents

World market
Expert Forecasts
Dynamics of the derivatives market of wheat, corn and soybeans in January
FOB Cash Market in January
Russia
Expert Forecast
Price situation in January
Cash Market FOB
Export, tenders, prices
Kazakhstan
Expert Forecasts
Price dynamics
Grain stocks

World market

In January, despite a rather high volatility during the month, wheat quotes as a result in the United States, and especially in France, changed slightly – fell within half a percent. The exception was British wheat contracts. Here they increased by more than two percent. American corn declined, and soybeans, it can be said, fell down. Rapeseed in Paris lost more than five percent, and corn grew. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar moved all the way to the pound in January, but by the end of the month almost nothing had been won or lost – dropped from 0.7613 pounds per dollar on January 1 to 0.761 pounds per dollar on February 1. This cannot be said in relation to the euro. In this case, the dollar rose significantly from 0.8922 to 0.9071 euros per dollar, respectively.

Expert Forecasts

The first in this year’s report from the International grains Council (IGC) in the 2019-20 season from January 23 showed higher forecast of world grain production. He rose to the previous forecast in November to 8 million tons from 2162-2170 million tons. But the increase will be at the expense of corn and other crops. Forecast of consumption increased by 6 million tons from 2188 to 2194 million tons. The shortage of world grain balance of grain amounted to 24 million tons. The volume of grain trade has grown in the forecast by 2 million tons from 375 to 377 million tons. End carry-over stocks of the season increased by 5 million tons from 594 to 599 million tons. This season they are below last year’s 25 million tons.

The forecast for wheat production in January decreased by 1 million tons from 762 to 761 million tons. Reduced the forecast of wheat consumption by 2 million tons from 756 to 754 million tons. The forecast of world wheat trade increased by 2 million tons from 173 to 175 million tons. End carry-over stocks of the season increased by 1 million tons from 271 to 272 million tons.

Forecasts for world corn balance sheet are positive in terms of production, consumption and ending balance of the season. For the 2019-20 seasons, the IGC increased the forecast of corn production by 8 million tons from 1103 to 1111 million tons, the forecast of consumption increased by 8 million tons from 1142 to 1150 million tons, and the final residues increased by 4 million tons from 279 to 283 million tons. The level of trade has not changed – 168 million tons.

Forecasts for rice, its production declined 1 million tons from 500 to 499 million tons, the forecast of consumption has not changed, and in the last report, down 1 million tons from 496 to 495 million tons, the forecast ending balances fell by 3 million tons from 180 to 177 million tons. The level of trade fell by 1 million tons from 45 to 44 million tons.

January 10, the US Department of agriculture –USDA has released the first in this year’s report forecast the global grain market and individual countries in the 2019-20 seasons. In the January report forecast world wheat production reduced from 765,411 to 764,391 million tons this year’s performance considerably exceed the estimate of wheat production in the past 2018-19 season 731,448 million tons. But the level of world consumption increased from 753,761 to 754,371 million tons. End carry-over stocks of the season reduced from 289,495 to 288,077 million tons. The volume of trade in wheat increased with 180,471 to 181,731 million tons.

Separately for the main countries producers of wheat the forecast of production increased for the European Union, but reduced for Australia, Brazil and Russia. Export forecast increased for Ukraine and the European Union, but reduced for Russia.

Dynamics of the derivatives market of wheat, corn and soybeans in January

For the first half of January, wheat prices on both continents have increased almost in equal proportion, from two percent. While between the old and the new year, U.S. wheat fell, but then more than recovered and exceeded the initial cost. In France wheat contracts rose for all three weeks. American maize changed little, except for a slight increase within the lower one-tenth of one percent, and soybeans have pulled back. The Forex market is not played in the pricing of French quotations any significant role. The dollar against the Euro is almost unchanged and decreased only slightly. Against the pound the dollar’s decline was more noticeable, but also not critical.

For the second half of January from 17 to 31 the number of quotes on the futures market quotations of wheat, corn, soy and canola all went down in different proportions. Most deeply in the wheat segment sagged contracts in the United States, a little less French quotes, and British wheat has changed slightly. U.S. corn lost more than two percent, but the record in the fall was soy – more than six percent. In the currency market the dollar over the period has increased, but has gone up in the neighborhood. Against the Euro the dollar is another story. The U.S. dollar exchange rate to Euro has grown considerably, and the French quotes lost further value in the American value.

The first in this year’s report from the International grains Council (IGC) of 23 January showed higher forecast of world grain production. He rose to the previous forecast in November to 8 million tons from 2162-2170 million tons. But the increase will be at the expense of corn. The forecast for wheat production, on the contrary, decreased by 1 million tons from 762 to 761 million tons.

In the end, in terms of the dollar in January, in London wheat quotations have risen by 2.1% in Paris fell 0.1 percent, and in Chicago by 0.6%. Corn in the US fell by 2%, and soy by 7.8%. In the denomination of Euro rape in Paris fell by 5.1% and corn increased by 1.5%.

Dynamics of quotations of wheat, corn and soybeans on world exchanges in January (in dollars per ton)

	27.12	03.01	10.01	17.01	24.01	31.01	27.12-31.01 + —	27.12-31.01 %
Wheat
SWOT Chicago	204,6	203,7	207,4	209,6	210,7	203,4	-0,8	99,4
LIFFE London	192	193	192,9	196,3	201,4	196,2	4,2	102,1
MATIF Paris	210,7	211,4	212,5	215,8	216	210,6	-0,1	99,9
Corn SWOT	152,9	151,9	151,6	153	152,2	149,8	-3,1	98,0
Soybeans SWOT	347,6	345,9	347,6	341,6	331,4	320,6	-27,0	92,2

Rapeseed and maize quotes on the MATIF exchange in January (in euros per ton)

	27.12	03.01	10.01	17.01	24.01	31.01	27.12-31.01 + —	27.12-31.01 %
Rapeseed, MATIF	413,5	415,75	421,25	407,5	406,75	392,25	-21,25	94,9
Corn, MATIF	166	168	171,25	173	172	168,5	2,5	101,5

FOB Cash Market in January

Crops on FOB basis in the ports of the United States, France, Russia and Argentina ended January with different result of price changes. Wheat of various types in the United States was acting contradictory. French wheat and barley increased, but only slightly. The growth of the same crops in Russia was ten times higher. Russian wheat and barley have lost price competitiveness against French grain. Almost the same high growth were the Russian corn, in contrast to the us, which rose slightly. On the soybean market and a significant drop in the US and in Argentina.

For the first ten days of the new year on the FOB market in the United States, France, Russia and Argentina, prices for wheat, barley, corn and soybeans for most items increased. An exception to the General trend was the high-protein HRS wheat from the United States, which dropped almost ten dollars per ton. Wheat and SRW wheat, HRW 11% increase, the first in more, and the second to a lesser extent. French and Russian wheat moved up unevenly, French grain scored more dollars to its cost and reduced cost advantage to the Russian wheat from four to two dollars. French and Russian barley were grown in equal measure. Russian barley remains cheaper than the French for seven dollars. American corn added to their price of just a dollar, and Russian corn rose to three dollars. American and Argentine soybeans have increased by a few dollars each.

10-31st of January for three weeks on the spot market, FOB the American and French wheat was down, and the Russian wheat fell from this trend and increased significantly. Wheat, HRW 11% and HRS wheat 14% in U.S. ports fell in equal measure, and soft wheat SRW decreased less dynamic – three dollars. On the same level fell French wheat. Only in the Black sea ports of the Russian wheat thoroughly grown up and pretty lost price competitiveness before the French wheat. Now the difference is $ 13 per ton. The same situation in the segment barley. Russian barley is increased to the same extent, and wheat and has become more French, which, on the contrary lost in the cost of one dollar. Corn from the United States for three weeks has not changed, and Russian corn was increased. In the market of cash soybeans in the U.S. and Argentina is a complete failure in almost equal degree in the range of twenty-five dollars.

In the end, in January the wheat SRW on FOB basis from ports in the United States increased $ 2 250 to $ 252 per ton. HRW wheat with protein content of 11% dropped to $ 5 from 235 to 230 dollars per ton. High protein HRS wheat fell by $ 17 from 277 to 260 dollars per ton. Corn in US ports increased by $ 1 from $ 176 to $ 177 per ton.

French wheat in the port of Rouen in January rose by $ 1 from $ 216 to $ 217 per ton. Barley from France increased by $ 1 from $ 191 to $ 192 per ton. Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports grew by $ 10 from $ 220 to $ 230 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose by $ 10 from $ 184 to $ 194 per ton. Corn from Russia increased by $ 9 from 175 to $ 184 per ton.

Soybean from the USA on the basis of FOB fell by $ 22 from $ 366 to $ 344 per ton, soybean from Argentina by $ 25 from $ 369 to $ 344 per ton.

Price dynamics of the FOB cash market in January for crops in the USA, France, Russia and Argentina in dollars per ton

Culture	Country	27.12	03.01	10.01	17..01	24.01	31.01	27.12-31.01 + —
Wheat SRW	USA	250	253	255	261	262	252	2
Wheat HRW 11%	USA	235	232	238	236	235	230	-5
Wheat HRS 14%	USA	277	269	268	268	267	260	-17
Wheat	France	216	217	220	221	222	217	1
Wheat	Russia	220	220	222	227	234	230	10
Barley	France	191	192	193	190	192	192	1
Barley	Russia	184	185	186	186	188	194	10
Corn	USA	176	178	177	178	180	177	1
Corn	Russia	175	177	178	182	184	184	9
Soybean	USA	366	367	368	364	355	344	-22
Soybean	Argentina	369	370	371	362	353	344	-25

Russia

In January, all major Russian crops increased without exception. In wheat, the growth dynamics varies significantly, especially between food and feed wheat. In this segment, the highest growth is in wheat of the fourth grade, slightly less in wheat of the third grade. In feed wheat, the increase is an order of magnitude lower. January was marked by explosive growth in food rye. This culture managed to add a thousand rubles per ton to its value in a month. Corn grew slightly less than the growth rate of food wheat, and the lowest growth rates in barley. According to the results of January, the dollar in the foreign exchange market grew against the ruble, and the dynamics of the increase in Russian grain was lower than in rubles.

Expert Forecast

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia, in the 2019-20 seasons, grain exports from Russia may reach 45 million tons, including 36 million tons of wheat. According to the data of the territorial administrations of the Rosselkhoznadzor, on the basis of the issued phytosanitary certificates, from July 1 to December 30, 2019, 26.5 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were shipped abroad without processing products. This is 4 million tons, or 13%, less than for the same period of the previous season.

On January 10, the US Department of Agriculture –USDA issued the first report this year with a forecast for the world grain market and individual countries in the 2019-20 seasons. In particular, for Russia, the forecast for wheat production in the 2019-20 seasons is reduced from 74.5 to 73.5 million tons, while the level of consumption and final reserves remained the same – 39 million tons and 8.294 million tons, respectively. Wheat export reduced from 35 to 34 million tons.

The forecasts of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation for wheat production and its export are higher than those of the USDA. Wheat exports this agricultural year will be 36 million tons. According to preliminary data from Rosstat, the wheat crop amounted to 74.3 million tons.

Price situation in January

At the beginning of the new year in the first ten days of January, the domestic grain market has traditionally stood due to the fall in business activity during the holidays. Wheat segment, namely food wheat of the third and fourth grade together with feed wheat has not changed on the ruble. Rose only food rye, so to speak on the wave of positive dynamics and high for December corn, but only slightly. Barley, again a little bit passed back. But despite the relative stability of the domestic market crops rose significantly in the international equivalent of trade due to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar. In the currency market for the first two weeks of January the dollar fell 61,7676 rubles per dollar on 27 December to 61,234 rubles per dollar on January 10. It gave the wheat an additional increase from 2.3 to 2.5 dollars per ton.

Over the next three weeks of January, all major crops increased in price. In the segment of wheat has raised more dynamics than feed. Wheat 3 grade rose more than four percent and wheat 4 grade by almost five percent. Feed wheat has not held in the growth to three percent. The largest increase in absolute terms, gave food rye. It remains the price leader among the grain crops. High growth rates showed the corn. Barley relative to other crops has increased slightly, and in American terms, it declined as the dollar, this time increased significantly against the ruble.

In January in Russia wheat 3 grades increased to 505 rubles per ton or 4.1%, wheat 4 grade 565 rubles per ton or 4.9%, and feed wheat at 325 rubles per ton, or 2.9%. Food rye rose by 1,000 rubles per ton, or 7.5%, barley rose by 100 rubles per ton or 1%, and corn rose by 500 rubles per ton, 6.2%. Peas rose to 510 rubles per ton, 4%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from December 27 to January 31, rubles / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	27.12	03.01	10.01	17..01	24.01	31.01	10.01-31.01 + —	10.01-31.01 %
Wheat, Grade 3 (gluten 23%)	12 315	12 315	12 315	12 470	12 630	12 820	505	104,1
Wheat, Grade 4	11 570	11 570	11 570	11 755	11 985	12 135	565	104,9
Food rye	13 415	13 415	13 770	13 915	14 190	14 415	1000	107,5
Feed wheat	11 230	11 230	11 230	11 335	11 475	11 555	325	102,9
Feed barley	9 930	9 930	9 910	9 910	9 990	10 030	100	101,0
Feed corn	9 575	9 575	9 605	9 945	10 090	10 175	500	106,2
Peas	12 880	12 880	12 985	13 150	13 250	13 390	510	104,0

In January, in the American equivalent, wheat of the 3rd grade rose by $ 4.5 per ton, by 2.3%, wheat of the 4th grade by 5.7 dollars per ton or by 3%, feed wheat by $ 2 per ton, by 1.1 % Food rye increased by $ 12 per ton, by 5.5%, barley dropped by $ 1.2 per ton, by 0.7%, and corn rose by $ 6.8 per ton, by 4.4%. Peas grew by $ 4.5 per ton or 2.2%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from December 27 to January 31, dollars / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	27.12	03.01	10.01	17..01	24.01	31.01	10.01-31.01 + —	10.01-31.01 %
Wheat, Grade 3 (gluten 23%)	$198,5	$198,9	$201,0	$202,7	$204,4	$203,0	4,5	102,3
Wheat, Grade 4	$186,5	$186,9	$188,9	$191,0	$193,9	$192,2	5,7	103,0
Food rye	$216,3	$216,7	$224,8	$226,1	$229,6	$228,3	12,0	105,5
Feed wheat	$181,0	$181,4	$183,3	$184,2	$185,7	$183,0	2,0	101,1
Feed barley	$160,1	$160,4	$161,8	$161,1	$161,6	$158,9	-1,2	99,3
Feed corn	$154,4	$154,7	$156,8	$161,6	$163,3	$161,2	6,8	104,4
Peas	$207,6	$208,1	$212,0	$213,7	$214,4	$212,1	4,5	102,2

The tables used information from the ProZerno agency.

Cash Market FOB

In January, wheat from Russia became a record holder in the FOB market. French wheat and barley rose, but only slightly. The growth of these same cultures in Russia was ten times higher. Russian wheat and barley have lost price competitiveness with respect to French grains. Almost the same high growth was in Russian corn, in contrast to American, which grew slightly. Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports grew by $ 10 from $ 220 to $ 230 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose by $ 10 from $ 184 to $ 194 per ton. Corn from Russia increased by $ 9 from 175 to $ 184 per ton. The high growth of Russian wheat affected the results of the last Egyptian tender. French wheat won on it (see below).

Export, tenders, prices

Since the beginning of the year, the Egyptian grain operator GASC began active purchases of food wheat and during the first part of January held two tenders where it concluded contracts for the supply of Black Sea wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Romania. On January 8, the first Egyptian tender was held in the new year, and GASC purchased 300 thousand tons of Russian, Romanian and Ukrainian wheat for delivery on February 18-29, 2020. Russia accounted for 120 thousand tons. The next tender was held on January 14th. It was purchased 240 thousand tons of Russian and Romanian wheat with delivery in March 1-10, 2020. Half of this wheat is of Russian origin. Average prices compared to the previous tender rose to 236.27 dollars per ton FOB (+4.04 dollars per ton) Black Sea and up to 249.50 dollars per ton C&F (+3.79 dollars per ton). The average freight rate fell to $ 13.23 per ton. Since the beginning of the season, GASC has acquired 5.435 million tons of wheat, and the share of Russian grain in these purchases is 53.9%.

On January 30, another Egyptian tender was held, but without the participation of Russian wheat. GASC purchased 180 thousand tons of French wheat with delivery in March 11-25, 2020. Glencore has three vessels of 60 thousand tons of wheat at 231.10 dollars per ton FOB plus freight of 15 dollars per ton. The price at the buyer’s port is 246.10 dollars per ton of C&F. For the first time since November, prices fell from the previous tender to an estimated value of $ 231.10 per ton of FOB (-3.17 $ / t) Black Sea and up to $ 246.10 per ton of C&F (-3.40 dollars per ton). The average freight rate from France is very low. To date, GASC has acquired 5.615 million tons of wheat, and the share of Russian grain in these purchases is 52.2%.

Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan started the preparation for the sowing campaign in 2020. One of the most important components of this preparation – processing of seeds. In the Republic the case with the harvesting of the seeds are going well, and the Ministry of agriculture is showing impressive numbers — 99,7% of planned figures. But in the context of individual regions and for individual crops, there are significant gaps in the following months you have to get a seed Fund. Or will they find new reserves within the country, or resort to import of seeds.

According to the operative data of oblast akimats 30 Jan 2459,2 harvested thousand tons of seeds, representing 99.7% of the planned level. Indicators of seeds of grain crops have exceeded this level and amounted to 1 million 936 thousand tons or 100.1% of the plan, that is not true of oilseeds and other crops. Oilseeds harvested 89,1 thousand tons or 99%, feed – to 15.2 thousand tons of sludge for 91.3%, potatoes – 417,6 thousand tons, or 98.5 percent.

For different types of crops shortage of seeds at the end of January in Aktobe oblast, East Kazakhstan region, Kostanay region, Kyzylorda region, Pavlodar region and West-Kazakhstan region. The greatest failure in the procurement of seeds in Aktobe region – 91,1%, including cereals – 93,1%, seeds of forage crops — 64,7% and potatoes — of 82.1%. In East Kazakhstan harvested 99.3% of. Here the shortfall in oilseeds — was 84.8% and forage crops — 64,3%.

In Kostanay region a General lack of seeds 98%, of which crops — 97,9%. In Kyzylorda region covered 83.8% of the seeds, including oilseeds is 87.7%, and fodder crops – 86,7%. Lack of oilseeds in Pavlodar oblast – 88,8%, and of seeds of forage crops in West Kazakhstan region — 69,6%. Beyond the planned measures of the cereal seeds harvested in Zhambyl region — to 115.2% and in Kyzylorda region — of 105.2%.

Expert Forecasts

In the January USDA report of January 10, for Kazakhstan in the 2019-20 seasons, the forecast for wheat did not change. Recall. In the December USDA Agricultural Service report for Kazakhstan in the 2019-20 seasons, the data on wheat production and export remained the same. According to the USDA Agricultural Service, wheat production was last reduced from 13 to 11.5 million tons. This is the lowest production rate of this grain for six. In the last 2018-19 season, production amounted to 13.947 million tons. Wheat export from Kazakhstan was reduced from 6.5 to 5.2 million tons of wheat. Last season, according to this expert group, wheat exports were at the level of 8.3 million tons. And in the 2017-18 marketing year, exports amounted to 9 million tons. The end stocks of the current season are projected to be extremely low – only 1.44 million tons.

Price dynamics

For the period from the end of December last to the first decade of February 2020, prices in Kazakhstan on the basis of EXW increased for most types of wheat, barley and flour. The exception was grade 4 and 5 wheat, apparently due to insufficient demand for this crop. Grade 4 wheat remained in place, and Grade 5 grain declined.

The highest growth in relative and absolute proportions for barley, high-protein wheat and high-grade flour increased by 1000 tenge per ton, wheat of the third grade and first grade flour increased by 500 tenge per ton, and second-grade flour added 300 tenge per ton.

Price dynamics in Kazakhstan on the EXW basis from December 2019 to February 2020

Type of goods	December	February	February to December + —	February to December %
wheat 27-30%	83500	84500	1000	101,2
wheat, grade 3	78500	79000	500	100,6
wheat, grade 4	64700	64700	0	100
wheat, grade 5	57700	57100	-600	99,0
barley	51700	53400	1700	103,4
premium flour	134500	135500	1000	100,7
flour 1 grade	120000	120500	500	100,4
flour 2 grade	103500	103800	300	100,3

Grain stocks

Throughout 2019, grain stocks in Kazakhstan lagged behind in 2018. At the same time, by the end of the year, this gap only increased by almost 1 million tons. On January 1, 2019, Kazakhstan met with grain reserves of 14465559 tons, and a year earlier on January 1, the republic had 16174007 tons of grain, or 1708448 tons more.

As of October 1, 2019, grain reserves in relation to 2018 decreased by almost 3 million tons, and the difference fell only to December to 2622213 tons. By the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, by January 1, the grain lag amounted to 2692203 tons. It is possible that the imbalance in grain stock between annual periods was reduced by import of grain from Russia.

Dynamics of grain stocks in Kazakhstan in 2018-19 on the 1st day of the month, in tons

	January	February	March	April	May	June
2019	14465559	11867608	10277759	9234499	7840581	5294464
2018	16174007	14207779	12096356	10649775	9461947	7022541
Difference 2019 to 2018 + —	-1708448	-2340171	-1818597	-1415276	-1621366	-1728077

	July	August	September	October	November	December	January
2019	3991767	3468869	5106469	12654519	15600633	13172139	11773356
2018	5190837	4378471	5571662	15639739	18502335	15794352	14465559
Difference 2019 to 2018 + —	-1199070	-909602	-465193	-2985220	-2901702	-2622213	-2692203

By January 1, grain stocks were reduced, but to a lesser extent than in November and almost in the same amount as last year – 1328793 tons for December 2018 and 1398783 tons for December 2019. In relative terms, feed grain decreased more rapidly than food grain. In December, the seed fund was replenished and exceeded 1.5 million tons.

By the beginning of the 2019-20 seasons, 3991767 tons were recorded in Kazakhstan with a decrease of 1302697 tons or 24.6%. In July, grain stocks in Kazakhstan decreased from 3991767 to 3468869 tons, by 522898 tons or 13.1%. In August, the volume of grain increased from 3468869 to 5106469.5 tons, by 1637600.5 tons or 47.2%. In September to October 1, the amount of grain increased from 5106469 to 12654519 tons and increased by 7548049 tons or 2.45 times. During October, grain grew by another 2946114 tons to 15600633 tons, or 23.3%. By December 1, statistics took into account 13172139 tons of grain with a decrease in November by 2428494 tons or 15.6%. By the beginning of 2020, as of January 1, 11773356 tons of grain were recorded, volumes decreased in December by 1398783 tons or 10.6%.

In December, by January 1, the volume of food grain decreased from 9446763 tons as of December 1 to 8375122 tons as of January 1, by 1071641 tons or by 11.3%. Grain for seeds increased from 1431380 to 1514796 tons, 83,416 tons or 5.8%, the amount of feed grain decreased from 2293996 to 1883438 tons, 410558 tons or 17.9%.

Grain stocks in Kazakhstan on January 1, 2019

	December 1st	January 1st	December to November + —	December to November %
Total crops	13 172 139	11 773 356	_-1398783	_89,4
for food	9 446 763	8 375 122	_-1071641	_88,7
for seeds	1 431 380	1 514 796	₈₃₄₁₆	_105,8
on fodder	2 293 996	1 883 438	_-410558	_82,1

For the last month of the last year crops dropped in almost all major types of rice. Rice reserves for December increased by 15662 tons. Perhaps there is a need to replenish stocks of this culture and it was brought from abroad, as in November, the rice has lost nearly thirty percent of its volume. Again in December at the fastest pace subsided corn. In November, its stock has decreased by one third, and in December, another more than 36%. Last season’s December cost of corn amounted to 16382 tons, but this year it 78436 tons. Cost increases 4.8 times. If it will decrease at the same rate it until the spring may not remain. In addition to corn in a higher proportion than the average for the Republic spent buckwheat, millet, rye and barley.

For the last month of 2019 to January 1, the amount of wheat decreased by 887255 tons 9873017 to 8985762 tons, or 9%, corn 78436 tons 214052 to 135616 tons, or 36.6%, while rice has increased by 15662 ton 318797 to 334459 tons or 4.9%.

Barley in the amount decreased by 377040 tons 2253374 to 1876334 tons or 17.7%, rye at 2837 tons 14667 to 11830 tons, or 19.3%, oats at 16825 tons from 196 to 620 179795 tons or 8.6%. Stocks of buckwheat decreased by 8630 tons 42481 before 33851 ton or 20.3%, of millet on 3892 tons from 19222 to 15330 tons or by 20.2%, and the mixture of grains on 9765 tons with 56911 till 47146 tons or by 17.2%.

For December to the beginning of the new year in Kazakhstan with a total loss of grain stocks replenished in three areas and in three cities of Republican subordination. In Shymkent by 41318 tons in Kyzylorda oblast at 23737 tons, Nur-Sultan 11378 tons, in the Turkestan region to 2592 tons, in Almaty on 1142 tons, and the Atyrau region 61 a ton. In other regions, the stocks of grain declined in a different measure. The high cost of grain, traditionally in the grain belt of Kazakhstan in Akmola and North Kazakhstan region. The exception was the Kostanay region. Hence the grain departed to be extremely low – less than 100 thousand tons. Why consumers of grain took him so little, is not exactly clear. Perhaps because of the low quality of grain, perhaps the grains in the area were imported, and the total decline was insignificant.

Reserves in three regions decreased by more than 100 thousand tons. This is the East Kazakhstan region – by 139887 tons from 784829 to 644942 tons, the Karaganda region – by 122813 tons from 666131 to 543318 tons and the Almaty region – by 110297 tons from 349826 to 239529 tons.

The two largest cereal regions have the highest grain decline. Again, as in November, the exception was the Kostanay region, as we discussed above. Almost equal amounts of grain were left from the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions. 449,461 tons from the Akmola region from 4,069,371 tons of December to 3,5574761 tons of January or 11.2% went down, from the North Kazakhstan region 445,518 tons from 3508,834 to 306,331 tons or 12.7%, and from Kostanay region by 86986 tons from 2297958 to 2210972 tons or 3.8%. In Akmola oblast, the share of republican grain dropped to 30.2%, in Kostanai oblast it increased to 18.8%, and in North Kazakhstan oblast it fell to 26%.

In total, in three regions of the grain belt, grain stocks decreased by 981965 tons from 9813729 to 8831764 tons or by 9.2%. The share of grain in these areas was 75%. As of January 1, 350,520 tons of grain was stored in farms and farms in the North Kazakhstan region. There are 548149 tons in the Kostanay region and 341168 tons in the Akmola region.

At the moment, the following domestic prices have developed:

Currently, in the capital of the republic, the city of Nur-Sultan, grade 3 wheat is sold at 78,800 tenge per ton. Flour of the first grade in the capital is sold at 121400 tenge per ton, premium grade – at 136400 tenge per ton. The second grade of flour in the markets costs 106700 tenge per ton.

In the Akmola region, a ton of wheat of 3 grade is sold at 79,000 tenge, and wheat above 27% gluten – for 84,500 tenge per ton, barley of 2 grade costs 53,400 tenge per ton. The highest grade of flour is currently sold at 135500 tenge, flour of the 1st and 2nd grades is offered at 120500 tenge and 103800 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region, 3 grade of wheat are sold at 78,300 tenge, wheat above 27% gluten – for 85,800 tenge. Barley in the North-Kazakhstan region is currently being sold at 53,400 tenge per ton. North-Kazakhstan residents sell premium flour at 133500 tenge per ton, and 1st grade – at 118500 tenge per ton. Flour of the 2nd grade leaves at 103,800 tenge per ton.

In the Kostanay region, the price of grade 3 wheat reached 79,600 tenge per ton, wheat above 27% gluten costs 85,200 tenge. Barley 2 grade Kostanay farmers offer 53,900 tenge per ton. The market value of flour of all varieties: the highest – at 134500 tenge, the first grade in the region is traded at 119500 tenge. Flour of the 2nd grade in the Kostanay region costs 104800 tenge per ton.

In Pavlodar region a ton of wheat of 3 grade is sold for 79800 tenge, barley – at 53800 tenge per ton. Flour prices in Pavlodar region were as follows: top grade – 135600 tenge per ton, 1 grade – 120600 tenge per ton, 2 grade – 105900 tenge per ton.

In the Karaganda region, a ton of grade 3 wheat costs 81,200 tenge, wheat above 27% gluten – 86,500 tenge per ton. Barley – 53900 tenge per ton. The highest grade of flour is traded at 136500 tenge per ton, flour of the 1st and 2nd grades is sold at 121500 tenge and 106800 tenge per ton.

Grade 3 wheat in the East Kazakhstan region is sold at 79,300 tenge per ton, barley – 55,000 tenge per ton. Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades in East Kazakhstan is sold at 136,000, 121,000 and 107,300 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the West Kazakhstan region, the price of wheat of 3 grade is at the level of 79900 tenge per ton. Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades in WKO is sold at 137700, 123700, 109000 tenge, respectively.

At the moment, in the Almaty region, 3 grade of wheat are offered at 80,500 tenge per ton. Barley – at 55,700 tenge per ton. Top grade flour costs about 137200 tenge per ton, 1 grade – 122200 tenge per ton. Flour of the 2nd grade is sold at 107,500 tenge per ton.

Grade 3 wheat in the Zhambyl region is currently sold at 80,000 tenge per ton, and barley of the second grade at 56,700 tenge per ton. Top grade flour in the region is sold at 138,000 tenge, 1 grade is traded in the region of 123,000 tenge, 2 grade – 108300 tenge per ton.

In the Turkestan region wheat of 3 grade is sold at 80200 tenge per ton, and barley — 55900 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of highest, 1st and 2nd grade at the moment is fixed at the level of 138100, 123100 and 108400 tenge per ton.

In Aktobe region wheat of 3 grade costs 82400, flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades sold at 139000, 124000 and 109200 tenge per ton.

In Kyzylorda region wheat of 3 grade costs 81900 tenge per ton. Flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades sold at 137700, 122700 and 109000 tenge per ton.

In the southern capital, Almaty city, 3 grade wheat sold at 81600 tenge per ton. Flour to Almaty is 138600 tenge per ton, 1st and 2nd grade goes to the markets 123600 and 107900 tenge per ton, respectively.

Wheat 3 grade with gluten content of 23% based on DAP with St. Lugovaya (Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan) to implement the (hereinafter dollars per ton) at $239-244, wheat with gluten content of 27-30% — 266-269, barley – 162-165, flour, 1st and 2nd grade should 332-336, 297-302, 272-277 dollars per ton.

3 grade wheat from the elevators of the South Ural railway currently sell for $224-227, wheat above 27% of gluten — $251-254, barley for $147-150, flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades — at $316-321, $282-287 and $257-262, respectively.

At the station Sary-Agash (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan, DAP) grade 3 wheat is worth $243-246, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 270-273, barley, 166-169, flour, 1st and 2nd grade is 335-340, 301-306, 276-281 dollars per ton.

On the station Tobol (DAP) grade 3 wheat is worth $233-236, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 260-263, barley – 156-159, flour, 1st and 2nd grade is 325-330, 291-296, 266-271 dollars per ton.

At the station Hairatan (Uzbekistan-Afghanistan CPT) the price of wheat of 3 grade is $297-300, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 324-327, barley, 220-223, flour, 1st and 2nd grade – 389-394, 355-359, 330 to 335 dollars per ton.

In the port of Aktau on FOB conditions wheat is sold at $253-256, with gluten content above 27 percent — $280-283, barley — $176-179. Flour highest, first and second grade can be bought for $345-350, $311 to 316 and $286-291 per ton.

Alimbek Gabitov