Grain export prices of January 21, 2020

In January, Kazakhstani wheat gained a new additional value, and the falling dollar exchange rate threw it even higher in the equivalent of world trade.  When going abroad, domestic wheat is no longer competitive.  The general context of the regional wheat and barley market of inland Eurasia, namely Kazakhstan, the Russian Trans-Urals and Siberia, which was not in favor of the Kazakh side, makes import from these regions more preferable.  Grain deliveries from Bashkiria, the Orenburg and Omsk regions, as well as the Altai Territory were recorded.  Consumers of wheat and barley bypass domestic grain holders and import it at more attractive prices, an analyst at KazahZerno.kz notes.  Free access of goods from Russia to Kazakhstan and vice versa only contributes to this.  Kazakh farmers can only rely on revenues in the oil sector.  More on this below in the Kazakhstan section.

A summary table of prices for grain crops and flour in tenge per ton in Kazakhstan as of January 21, 2020, incl.  VAT 12%

Name of the region

wheat, grade 3, with gluten

wheat grade 4

wheat grade 5

Barley

flour

23-24%

27-30%

premium

grade 1

grade 2

 Akmola

78500

84000

63700

56700

52700

135500

120500

103800

 Aktobe

81900

67900

60900

54600

139000

124000

109200

 Almaty

80000

65200

58200

55000

137200

122200

107500

 East Kazakhstan

78800

64900

57400

54300

136000

121000

107300

 Zhambyl

79600

65000

58000

56000

138000

123000

108300

 West Kazakhstan

79400

65200

58200

137700

123700

109000

 Karaganda

80700

86000

66900

59900

53200

136500

121500

106800

 Kyzylorda

81400

66600

60900

137700

122700

109000

 Kostanay

79100

84700

64300

57300

53200

134500

119500

104800

 Pavlodar

79300

65500

57500

53100

135600

120600

105900

 North Kazakhstan

77800

85300

63000

55800

52700

133500

118500

103800

 Turkestan

79700

85800

65100

58100

55200

138100

123100

108400

 ​​Nur-Sultan city

78300

84900

65000

57200

136400

121400

106700

 Almaty city

81100

66600

59600

138600

123600

107900

Export prices for grain crops and flour in dollars per ton, incl.  VAT 0% (ex-elevator) as of January 21, 2020

Station name

wheat, grade 3, with gluten

wheat grade 4

wheat grade 5

Barley

flour

Delivery conditions

23-24%

27-30%

 grade 2

premium

grade 1

grade 2

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

 Petropavlovsk station (South Ural Railway)

225-228

252-255

215-218

147-150

317-322

283-288

258-263

DAP

 station Sary-agash

244-247

271-274

234-237

166-169

336-341

302-307

277-282

DAP

 Lugovaya station

240-243

267-270

230-233

162-165

333-337

298-303

273-278

DAP

 Tobol station

234-237

261-264

224-227

156-159

326-331

292-297

267-272

DAP

 port of Aktau

254-257

281-284

244-247

176-179

346-351

312-317

287-292

FOB

 Bekabad station

268-271

295-298

258-261

190-193

360-365

326-331

301-306

СРТ

 Hairaton Station

298-301

325-328

288-291

220-223

390-395

356-360

331-336

СРТ

 Turgundi station

295-298

322-325

285-288

217-220

387-392

353-358

328-333

СРТ

 station Sarahs

222-225

World market

For the first half of January, wheat quotes on both continents grew in almost equal proportions – from two or more percent.  At the same time, at the junction of the old and the new year, American wheat fell, but then more than restored and exceeded the original cost.  In France, wheat contracts rose all three weeks.  American corn has changed little, except for a slight increase in the range below one tenth of a percent, and soybeans surrendered.  The foreign exchange market did not play any significant role in the pricing of French quotes.  The dollar against the euro remained almost unchanged, but fell slightly.  For the pound, the dollar’s decline was more tangible, but not critical either.

Expert Forecasts

On January 10, the US Department of Agriculture –USDA issued the first report this year with a forecast for the world grain market and individual countries in the 2019-20 seasons.  In the January report, the forecast for world wheat production was reduced from 765.411 to 764.391 million tons. This year’s indicators significantly exceed the estimate for wheat production in the last 2018-19 season – 731.448 million tons.  But the level of world consumption has been increased from 753.761 to 754.371 million tons.  Final carryover stocks of the season were reduced from 289.495 to 288.077 million tons.  The volume of wheat trade increased from 180.471 to 181.731 million tons.

 Separately, for the main countries producing wheat, the forecast for its production has been raised for the European Union, and lowered for Australia, Brazil and Russia.  The export forecast is increased for Ukraine and the European Union, and reduced for Russia.

Dynamics of the derivatives market of wheat, corn and soybeans in December

January

Week from 27 December to 3 January, which was started in 2019, and ended in the come year 2020, gave a negative result on the dynamics of quotations of wheat in the United States and Europe. But, the final weekly decline in wheat contracts in the United States, France and Britain were not very significant – less than half a percent. American corn together with soybeans fell almost in the same progression. In the currency market the dollar all week was in the fall, strengthening the European quotes in its value.

Quotations of wheat from 3 to 10 January has increased on both continents. In the United States and France, growth was comparable is beyond one and a half percent of Britain’s wheat contracts rose in the least. The U.S. corn for the period swung down, and soybeans increased. By the end of the week the dollar on the foreign exchange market has grown to Euro and pound. European quotes in the American equivalent have lost a certain value. In London quotes wheat rose 0.6 percent in Paris, 1.5 percent, in Chicago by 1.8%. Corn fell 0.2%, and soy rose 0.5 %. Canola and corn in Paris for a week increased.

From 10 to 17 January in the futures market wheat prices rose again, as in the previous week period. Growth dynamics of wheat contracts in the United States from January 10 to 17, in France the proportion of growth were comparable, and in Britain the degree of improvement increased. American corn and soy at this time has changed in one way – upwards. During the week the dollar on the foreign exchange market then fell, then rose against the pound, but eventually dropped for the week the British currency. The same situation exists in relation to the Euro. European quotations thus received the additional cost in the U.S. equivalent.

In the end, in terms of the dollar from 27 December to 17 January, in London wheat quotations have risen on 2,2%, in Paris by 2.4% and in Chicago by 2.4%. Corn in the US rose by just 0.07 percent, while soybeans fell 1.7%. In the denomination of Euro rape in Paris fell 1.5%, while corn rose 4.2%.

The dynamics of quotations of wheat, corn and soybeans on world exchanges from December 27 to January 17 (in dollars per ton)

27.12 03.01 10.01 17.01 27.12-17.01 + — 27.12-17.01 %
Wheat            
SWOT Chicago 204,6 203,7 207,4 209,6 5,0 102,4
LIFFE London 192 193 192,9 196,3 4,3 102,2
MATIF Paris 210,7 211,4 212,5 215,8 5,1 102,4
Corn SWOT 152,9 151,9 151,6         153 0,1 100,07
Soya SWOT 347,6 345,9 347,6 341,6 -6,0 98,3

Rapeseed and maize quotes on MATIF from December 27 to January 17 (in euros per ton)

27.12 03.01 10.01 17.01 27.12-17.01 + — 27.12-17.01 %
Colza, MATIF 413,5 415,75 421,25 407,5 -6,0 98,5
 Corn, MATIF 166 168 171,25 173 7,0 104,2

December

The growth of wheat quotes continued throughout the autumn period.  December was no exception.  This time, the British wheat quotes became the leader in relative growth.  In a smaller proportion rose wheat contracts from France.  Quotes in the United States did not slightly increase three percent growth, but, nevertheless, they crossed upward the limits of $ 200 per ton and confidently consolidated there.  As before, French quotes are ahead of everyone in terms of price absolute denominator.  American corn and soybeans rose after their wheat, the first to a lesser extent, and the second to a greater extent.  In December, in the foreign exchange market, the dollar lost its exchange rate advantages to the pound, and especially to the euro, which it acquired in November and fell to these currencies.  Against the pound, the dollar fell from 0.7747 pounds per dollar on November 30 to 0.7674 pounds per dollar on December 28, and against the euro from 0.9083 to 0.8985 euros per dollar, respectively. 

Cash FOB agricultural market in January

For the first ten days of the new year on the FOB market in the United States, France, Russia and Argentina, prices for wheat, barley, corn and soybeans for most items increased. An exception to the General trend was the high-protein HRS wheat from the United States, which dropped almost ten dollars per ton. Wheat and SRW wheat, HRW 11% increase, the first in more, and the second to a lesser extent. French and Russian wheat moved up unevenly, French grain scored more dollars to its cost and reduced cost advantage to the Russian wheat from four to two dollars. French and Russian barley were grown in equal measure. Russian barley remains cheaper than the French for seven dollars. American corn added to their price of just a dollar, and Russian corn rose to three dollars. American and Argentine soybeans have increased by a few dollars each. For the period from January 10 to 17 of US wheat has changed ambiguously in different directions. French wheat slightly increased and barley has decreased. Russian wheat has grown more dynamics, and the barley has not changed. Corn in the United States and Russia has increased, and soybean in USA and Argentina sank (for detailed figures see the table below).

From 27 December to 10 January on wheat SRW FOB basis from ports in the United States increased by $ 5 from 250 to 255 USD per ton, and by January 17, another $ 6 to 261 USD per ton. HRW wheat with protein content of 11% for the first 10 days has risen to $ 3 from 235 to 238 dollars per ton, but then fell $ 2 to $ 235 per ton. High protein HRS wheat initially fell to $ 9 from 277 to 268 dollars per ton and remained in place for the next seven days. Corn in the ports of the United States increased by $ 1 from 176 to 177 dollars per ton, and then another $ 1 to $ 178 per ton.

French wheat in the port of Rouen from 27 December to 10 January rose to 4 dollars from 216 to 220 dollars per ton, and a week later lost again, now 1 USD to 221 USD per ton.. Barley from France to 10 January increased 2 per dollar from 191 to 193 dollars per ton, but then fell $ 3 to $ 190 per ton. Russian wheat at Black sea ports grew by $ 2 from 220 to 222 dollars for ton, and then $ 5 from 222 to 227 dollars per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black sea rose to $ 2 with 184 до186 dollars per ton and then not changed. Corn from Russia first rose by $ 3 a 175 to $ 178 per ton, and by 17 January for $ 4 to 182 dollars per ton.

Soybeans from the USA on FOB basis rose to $ 2 from 366 to 368 USD per ton, but subsequently fell by $ 4 to 364 USD per ton Soybeans from Argentina to 10 January rose by $ 2 from 369 to 371 USD per ton, but by December 17 fell by $ 9 from 371 to 362 dollars per ton.

Price dynamics of the FOB cash market from December 27 to January 17 for crops in the USA, France, Russia and Argentina in dollars per ton

Culture Сountry 27.12 03.01 10.01 17.01 27.12-17.01 + —
 Wheat SRW  USA 250 253 255 $261 11
 Wheat HRW 11%  USA 235 232 238 236 1
 Wheat HRS 14%  USA 277 269 268 268 -9
 Wheat  France 216 217 220 221 5
 Wheat  Russia 220 220 222 227 7
 Barley  France 191 192 193 190 -1
 Barley  Russia 184 185 186 186 2
 Corn  USA 176 178 177 178 2
 Corn  Russia 175 177 178 182 7
 Soybean  USA 366 367 368 364 -2
 Soybean  Argentina 369 370 371 362 -7

Russia

For the first half of January in Russia from December 27 to January 17 almost all the main crops except barley increased in different proportions.  At the beginning of the year, there was a relative lull in the market and grain prices in their equivalent were controlled by the falling dollar, but by December 17, ruble prices had revived and crops increased in different dynamics.  Barley fell out of this trend and remained in its former position.  The dollar factor from January 10 to 17 did not play did not play such a prominent role in pricing as the day before.

Expert Forecast

On January 10, the US Department of Agriculture –USDA released the first report this year with a forecast of the world grain market and individual countries in the 2019-20 seasons.  In particular, for Russia, the forecast for wheat production in the 2019-20 seasons is reduced from 74.5 to 73.5 million tons, while the level of consumption and final reserves remained the same – 39 million tons and 8.294 million tons, respectively.  Wheat export reduced from 35 to 34 million tons.

 The forecasts of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation for wheat production and its export are higher than those of the USDA.  Wheat exports this agricultural year will be 36 million tons.  According to preliminary data from Federal State Statistics Service, the wheat crop amounted to 74.3 million tons.

January

At the beginning of the new year in the first ten days of January, the domestic grain market has traditionally stood due to the fall in business activity during the holidays. Wheat segment, namely food wheat 3 and 4 classes, together with the feed wheat has not changed on the ruble. Rose only food rye, so to speak on the wave of positive dynamics and high for December corn, but only slightly. Barley, again a little bit passed back. But, despite the relative stability of the domestic market crops rose significantly in the international equivalent of trade due to the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar. In the currency market for the first two weeks of January the dollar fell 61,7676 rubles per dollar on 27 December to 61,234 rubles per dollar on January 10. It gave the wheat an additional increase from 2.3 to 2.5 dollars per ton.

Russian wheat from 27 December to 10 January on FOB basis in the Black sea ports grew by $ 2 from 220 to 222 dollars for ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black sea rose to $ 2 from 184 to 186 dollars per ton. Corn from Russia increased by $ 3, from 175 to 178 USD per ton. French grain scored more dollars to its cost and reduced cost advantage to the Russian wheat from four to two dollars. French and Russian barley were grown in equal measure. Russian barley remains cheaper than the French for seven dollars. By 17 January, the Russian wheat scored his cost is still $ 5 and got to the level of $ 227 per ton, barley stayed in place – 186 dollars per ton, and corn rose by $ 4 to 182 dollars per ton.

Only from 27 December to 10 January in Russia wheat 3, 4 classes and its feed part has not changed in price. Food rye rose to 355 rubles per ton, or 2.6 percent, barley was down 20 rubles per ton, or 0.2%, while corn increased by 30 roubles per tonne, down 0.2%. Peas grown for 105 rubles per ton, down 0.8%.

By 17 January wheat class 3 increased by 155 rubles per ton, wheat of 4 class in 185 rubles per ton, and feed wheat for 105 rubles per ton. Food rye rose to 145 rubles per ton, barley has not changed, and maize increased by 340 roubles per tonne. The peas grew to 165 rubles per ton.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from December 27 to January 17, rubles / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops 27.12 03.01 10.01 27.12-10.01 + — 27.12-10.01 % 17.01 10.01-17.01 + —
 Wheat, Grade 3 (gluten 23%) 12 315 12 315 12 315 0 100 12 470 155
 Wheat, Grade 4 11 570 11 570 11 570 0 100 11 755 185
 Food rye 13 415 13 415 13 770 355 102,6 13 915 145
 Feed wheat 11 230 11 230 11 230 0 100 11 335 105
 Feed barley 9 930 9 930 9 910 -20 99,8 9 910 0
 Feed corn 9 575 9 575 9 605 30 100,3 9 945 340
 Peas 12 880 12 880 12 985 105 100,8 13 150 165

From December 27 to January 10, in the American equivalent, wheat of the 3rd grade rose by $ 2.5 per ton, by 1.3%, wheat of the 4th grade by $ 2.4 per ton or by 1.3%, feed wheat by 2.3 dollar per ton, 1.3%.  Food rye increased by 8.5 dollars per ton, by 3.9%, barley by 1.7 dollars per ton, by 1.1%, and corn by 2.4 dollars per ton, by 1.6%.  Peas rose 4.4 dollars per ton, or 2.1%.

 By January 17, in the American equivalent, wheat of the 3rd grade rose another 1.6 dollars per ton, wheat of the 4th grade increased by 2.2 dollars per ton, feed wheat by 0.9 dollars per ton.  Food rye increased by $ 1.4 per ton, barley decreased by $ 0.7 per ton, and corn rose by $ 4.8 per ton.  Peas rose 1.8 dollars per ton.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from December 27 to January 17, dollars / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops 27.12 03.01 10.01 27.12-10.01 + — 27.12-10.01 % 17.01 10.01-17.01 + —
 Wheat, Grade 3 (gluten 23%) $198,5 $198,9 $201,0 2,5 101,3 $202,7 $1,6
 Wheat, Grade 4 $186,5 $186,9 $188,9 2,4 101,3 $191,0 $2,2
 Food rye $216,3 $216,7 $224,8 8,5 103,9 $226,1 $1,4
 Feed wheat $181,0 $181,4 $183,3 2,3 101,3 $184,2 $0,9
 Feed barley $160,1 $160,4 $161,8 1,7 101,1 $161,1 -$0,7
 Feed corn $154,4 $154,7 $156,8 2,4 101,6 $161,6 $4,8
 Peas $207,6 $208,1 $212,0 4,4 102,1 $213,7 $1,8

The tables used information from the ProZerno agency.

For December food the rye has become a price leader on the Russian grain market among the major crops. In early December, it overtook the absolute price is traditionally the most expensive wheat of 3rd grade, and then within a month only increased the price gap in its favor. By the end of December the price of food rye exceeds the cost of wheat of 3 class for more than a thousand rubles per ton. Wheat segment of the grain market of Russia became more expensive per month in national currency for two and a half percent or more. The greatest way moved up wheat class 4, a lesser proportion of coarse component of wheat. Corn increased approximately in proportion commensurate with the wheat, and had escaped the General trend of growth only barley, he lost a few tenths of a percent, but at the same time, increased in dollar value, due to the strengthening of the ruble to the dollar.

In the foreign exchange market in the first part of December, the dollar fell 64,08 rubles per dollar on 30 November to 62,5544 rubles per dollar on December 14, then in the second half of December the us dollar, now with 62,5544 rubles per dollar on December 14 to 61,7676 rubles per dollar on December 27. This course significantly increased the dynamics of the Russian grain crops in the U.S. currency. The strengthening of the ruble snare up cash export prices of Russian grain crops and reduces their competitiveness on world markets. This is evident in the dynamics of growth of export prices for Russian wheat and corn on FOB basis.

Cash wheat in the Russian Black sea ports on FOB basis in the Black sea ports rose by $ 10 from 210 to 220 dollars per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black sea decreased by 4 dollars from 188 to 184 USD per ton. Corn from Russia increased $ 7 from 170 to 177 USD per ton. By the end of December Russian wheat on the market more FOB French four dollars, but Russian barley is five dollars cheaper than barley from France.

Export, tenders, prices

Since the beginning of the year, the Egyptian grain operator GASC began active purchases of food wheat and during the first part of January held two tenders where it concluded contracts for the supply of Black Sea wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Romania.  On January 8, the first Egyptian tender was held in the new year, and GASC purchased 300 thousand tons of Russian, Romanian and Ukrainian wheat for delivery on February 18-29, 2020.  Russia accounted for 120 thousand tons.  The next tender was held on January 14th.  It was purchased 240 thousand tons of Russian and Romanian wheat with delivery in March 1-10, 2020.  Half of this wheat is of Russian origin.  Average prices compared to the previous tender rose to 236.27 dollars per ton FOB (+4.04 dollars per ton) Black Sea and up to 249.50 dollars per ton C&F (+3.79 dollars per ton).  The average freight rate fell to $ 13.23 per ton.  Since the beginning of the season, GASC has acquired 5.435 million tons of wheat, and the share of Russian grain in these purchases is 53.9%.

Kazakhstan

Dynamics of wheat, barley and flour remains positive and in January of the coming new year. Factors in the increase are external causes, namely the growth of world and regional prices, so internal and, in particular, the lack of available wheat for export works. Lower stocks of grain crops are forcing market participants to sell grain at the best possible price to recoup the grain shortage.

As for oilseeds, the Northern regions of Kazakhstan they were formed in the following way. Len is 157-161 thousand tenge depending on the quality of the Elevator. Rapeseed is estimated at 155-160, thousand tenge safflower 150-157 thousand tenge, and the sunflower 125-131 thousand tenge.

This time the main theme of our review will be the price situation in Kazakhstan, regional and global markets. With the beginning of the year tenge along with the ruble rose to the equivalent of world trade – the dollar. Therefore, the price of Kazakhstan grain and flour in us dollar terms increased more in the dynamics than in the national currency. In the FX market tenge strengthened with 382,92 tenge per dollar at the beginning of the year to 376,11 tenge per dollar on January 21. For example, wheat of 3 class in the center of the grain belt of Kazakhstan have added to its value on the basis of the EXW is about five dollars per ton 203,7 to 208,7 dollars per ton.

On the General Russian-the Kazakhstan market, wheat class 3 from Kazakhstan lost its pricing competitiveness. Compared to the same wheat in the European part of Russia it is more expensive at $ 6 per ton. For other types of wheat and barley of Kazakhstan still retains a price advantage to the Russian grain from European Russia. Wheat class 4 11.6 dollars per ton, for feed wheat 26.4 dollars per ton, and barley at $ 20 per ton.

But the highest differences in the price of wheat flour of all varieties. In Kazakhstan it is much more expensive on the basis of its producers in the Northern grain belt of the Republic. Flour is more expensive, than in Russia is 50.5 dollars per ton, first-grade flour 25.1 dollars per ton, and flour of the 2 grade at $ 1.8 per ton. As can be seen from the table, the higher the grade of flour than this difference was most evident in absolute and relative terms.

If you compare the price of Kazakh wheat and barley with more intimate and Siberian regions of Russia, the price advantage of average prices of Russian grain crops is observed in all of them. This was one of the reasons for the strengthening of the Russian import of wheat in Kazakhstan from such Siberian regions as Omsk oblast Altai Krai and some regions of the Urals (see table below).

For example, in Bashkiria for the first two weeks of January, the competent services have issued documents to export to Kazakhstan ten shipments of barley destined for food purposes. In General, during the first half of January, the Kazakh buyers have been sent more than 7 thousand tons of Bashkir grain. Last year Kazakhstan also purchased the barley in Bashkiria. Total volume amounted to almost 44 thousand tons. Kazakhstan topped the list of importers of the Orenburg grain. According to the regional Department of the Rosselkhoznadzor, in the structure of import of grain from the Orenburg region, the share of the Republic of Kazakhstan by the end of 2019, accounting for more than 60%. The Kazakh Company bought last year in the neighboring Russian region of more than 154 thousand tons of grain.

Almost 50% of exports from Altai grain accounted for Kazakhstan. According to the data of regional office of Rosselkhoznadzor, last year the region exported over one million tons of grain. In second place for the procurement of Altai grain after Kazakhstan – China. It is about 176 thousand tons. The main range of the grain exports are wheat.

From the Omsk region Kazakhstan imports not only crops, but also food. According Omsk Ministry of agriculture, January-November 2019 regional farmers to foreign customers in the amount of almost 165 million dollars. This is 14% more than in the same period of the previous year. In total local production is sent to 45 countries in the world. As noted in the agricultural Department, more than half of all exports go to the countries of the CIS. In particular, in Kazakhstan almost 58 million dollars, accounting for 35% of total exports.

Comparative table of Russian and Kazakh EXW prices for wheat, barley and flour, per ton

Kazakhstan

European Russia

Russia.  Siberia

Type of goods

tenge

dollars

rubles

dollars

rubles

dollars

 Wheat, Grade 3

78500

208,7

12470

202,7

11500

187

 Wheat, Grade 4

63700

169,4

11755

191

10100

164,3

 Feed wheat

56700

158,8

11335

184,2

9300

151,3

 Barley

52700

140,1

9910

161,1

8500

138,3

 Flour, premium

135500

360,3

19065

309,8

 Flour, grade 1

120500

320,4

18170

295,3

 Flour, grade 2

103800

276

16875

274,2

Export prices

As for export prices at export crossings in Kazakhstan, this season they do not look the best competitive way against the regional and global background.  In the Kazakhstan port of Aktau, FOB wheat (Grade 3) exceeds the price of Russian wheat (Grade 3) FOB with access to the Black Sea by $ 30 per ton.  With such price indicators at the border, Kazakhstani wheat (Grade 3), it is almost impossible to get to seaports, taking into account logistics costs.

Comparative table of Russian, Kazakh and world prices at border crossings DAP, FOB, CPT for wheat and barley, per ton in dollars

Type of goods Petropavlovsk Sary-Agash Lugovaya Tobol Aktau Russia / Black Sea / France / port of Rouen / USA / Gulf of Mexico
 Wheat, Grade 3 228 247 243 237 257 227 221 261
 Barley 150 169 165 159 179 186 190  

Expert Forecasts        

In the December USDA Agricultural Service report for Kazakhstan in the 2019-20 seasons, the data on wheat production and export remained the same.  According to the USDA Agricultural Service, wheat production was last reduced from 13 to 11.5 million tons.  This is the lowest production rate of this grain for six.  In the last 2018-19 season, production amounted to 13.947 million tons.  Wheat export from Kazakhstan was reduced from 6.5 to 5.2 million tons of wheat.  Last season, according to this expert group, wheat exports were at the level of 8.3 million tons.  And in the 2017-18 marketing year, exports amounted to 9 million tons.  The end stocks of the current season are projected to be extremely low – only 1.44 million tons.  In the January USDA January 10 report for Kazakhstan in the 2019-20 seasons, the forecast for wheat has not changed.

Grain stocks

Recall that in December 2019, grain stocks in Kazakhstan are formed in a much lower volume than in previous years.  As of December 1, 2017, grain stocks in Kazakhstan were at the level of 20008473 tons and are reduced by 2297992 tons, or by 11.5% per month.  As of December 1, 2018, grain stocks in Kazakhstan reach the level of 15794352 tons with a decrease of 2707983 tons, or by 14.6%.  By December 1, 2019, statistics took into account 13172139 tons of grain with a decrease in November by 2428494 tons, or by 15.6%.  Thus, in December 2019, there are 6836334 tons less grain than in 2017, and 2622213 tons less than in 2018.

Cereal stocks in 2017-19 on December 1, in tons

  2017 2018 2019 2019 к 2018 + —
Grain stocks 20008473 15794352 13172139 -2622213

As previously reported, at the end of November, all grain-growing regions of Kazakhstan showed a 100 percent harvesting campaign result.  According to the regional agricultural departments, as of November 29, 15,274.2 thousand ha were harvested and 19,727.4 thousand tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 12.9 c / ha.  Last year, 15073.7 thousand hectares were harvested and 22844.1 thousand tons with a yield of 15.2 c / ha were harvested.

Currently, the following domestic prices:

At the moment in the capital of the Republic, Nur-Sultan, 3 class wheat sold at 78300 tenge per ton. Flour of 1st grade in the capital sold at 121400 tenge per ton, the highest grade — at 136400 tenge per ton. Second grade flour on the markets is 106700 tenge per ton.

In Akmola region a ton of wheat of 3 class for sell 78500 tenge, and wheat above 27% gluten free for 84000 tenge per ton, barley of 2 class is 52700 tenge per ton. Flour is now being implemented in 135500 tenge, the flour 1 and 2 varieties offer 120500 tenge and at 103800 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is sold at 77800 tenge, wheat above 27% of gluten for 85300 tenge. Barley in North Kazakhstan region at the moment sell 52700 tenge per ton. The flour people sell 133500 tenge per ton, and 1st grade — at 118500 tenge per ton. Flour of the 2nd grade takes 103800 tenge per ton.

In Kostanai region the price of wheat of 3 class reached the mark 79100 tenge per ton, wheat is higher than 27% of gluten is 84700 tenge. Barley 2 class Kostanay farmers offer 53200 tenge per ton. The market value of all types of flour: higher in tenge 134500, 1st grade in the region is trading at 119500 tenge. Flour of the 2nd grade in Kostanay region is 104800 tenge per ton.

In Pavlodar region a ton of wheat of 3 class for sell 79300 tenge, barley — at 53100 tenge per ton. The prices of wheat in the Pavlodar region was as follows: high grade — 135600 tenge per ton, 1st grade — 120600 tenge per ton, 2nd grade — 105900 tenge per ton.

In Karaganda region a ton of wheat of 3 class costs 80700 tenge, wheat above 27% of gluten – 86000 KZT per ton. Barley — 53200 tenge per ton. Flour is trading at 136500 tenge per ton, flour 1 and 2 grades sold at 121500 tenge and at 106800 tenge per ton.

3 class wheat in the Eastern Kazakhstan region sell at 78800 tenge per ton, barley – 54300 tenge per ton. Flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades in Eastern Kazakhstan are sold at 136000, 121000 and 107300 tenge per ton, respectively.

In West Kazakhstan region the price of wheat of 3 class — level 79400 tenge per ton. Flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades in WKR sold 137700, 123700, 109000 tenge, respectively.

Currently in Almaty region wheat of 3 class is offered at 80000 tenge per ton. Barley — at the 55,000 tenge per ton. Flour costs about 137200 tenge per ton, 1st grade — 122200 tenge per ton. For 107500 tenge per ton sold flour of the 2nd grade.

Wheat 3 class in Zhambyl region today has at 79600 tenge per ton, and barley the second year of 56,000 tenge per ton. The flour in the area are selling at 138000 tenge, 1st grade traded at around 123000 tenge, 2nd grade — 108300 tenge per ton.

In the Turkestan region wheat of 3 class is sold at 79700 tenge per ton, and barley — 55200 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of highest, 1st and 2nd grade at the moment is fixed at the level of 138100, 123100 and 108400 tenge per ton.

In Aktobe region wheat of 3 class costs 81900, flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades sold at 139000, 124000 and 109200 tenge per ton.

In Kyzylorda region wheat of 3 class costs 81400 tenge per ton. Flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades sold at 137700, 122700 and 109000 tenge per ton.

In the southern capital, Almaty city, 3 class wheat sold at 81100 tenge per ton. Flour to Almaty is 138600 tenge per ton, 1st and 2nd grade goes to the markets 123600 and 107900 tenge per ton, respectively.

Wheat 3 class with gluten content of 23% under the DAP from the Lugovaya station (Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan) to implement the (hereinafter dollars per ton) at $240-243, wheat with gluten content of 27-30% — 267-270, barley – 162-165, flour, 1st and 2nd grade is 333-337, 298-303, 273-278 dollars per ton.

3 class wheat from the elevators of the South Ural railway currently sell for $225-228, wheat above 27% of gluten — $252-255, barley for $147-150, flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades — at $317-322, $283-288 and $258-263, respectively.

At the station Sary-Agash (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan, DAP) class 3 wheat is worth $244-247, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 271-274, barley, 166-169, flour, 1st and 2nd grade is 336-341, 302-307, 277-282 dollars per ton.

On the station Tobol (DAP) class 3 wheat is worth $234-237, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 261-264, barley – 156-159, flour, 1st and 2nd grade is 326-331, 292-297, 267-272 dollars per ton.

At the station Hairatan (Uzbekistan-Afghanistan CPT) the price of wheat of 3 class is $298-301, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 325-328, barley, 220-223, flour, 1st and 2nd grade – 390-395, 356-360, 331-336 dollars per ton.

In the port of Aktau on FOB conditions wheat is sold at $254-257, with gluten content above 27% — $281-284, barley — $176-179. Flour highest, first and second grade can be bought for $346-351, $312-317 and $287-292 per ton.    

Alimbek Gabitov

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