Grain export prices of October 28, 2019

A summary table of prices for grain crops and flour in tenge per ton in Kazakhstan as of October 28, 2019, incl. 12% VAT

Name of the field	wheat grade 3, gluten-free			wheat grade 4		wheat grade 5		barley		flour
	23-24%	27-30%							premium			1 grade		2 grade
Akmola	79700	84700	66700		59700		51000		132500		118000		101500
Aktobe	84000	—	71000		64000		56100		135500		121000		106500
Almaty	82200	—	69200		62200		52500		133200		118700		104200
East Kazakhstan	80800	—	67800		60800		54100		132600		118100		104600
Zhambyl	81700	—	68700		61700		53600		134100		119600		105100
West Kazakhstan	81500	—	68500		61500		—		134200		120700		106200
Karaganda	82700	87000	69700		62700		51100		133500		119000		104500
Kyzylorda	83400	—	70400		63400		—		133700		119200		105700
Kostanay	80300	85400	67300		60300		51300		131500		117000		102500
Pavlodar	80700	—	68700		60700		51800		132300		117800		103300
North Kazakhstan	79000	86000	66000		58800		51000		130500		116000		101500
Turkestan	81900	87000	68900		61900		53300		134100		119600		105100
Astana city	80100	85700	68100		60200		—		133400		118900		104400
Almaty city	83200	—	70200		63200		—		134600		120100		104600

Export prices for grain crops and flour in dollars per ton, incl. VAT 0% (ex-elevator) as of October 28, 2019

Name of the station	wheat grade 3, gluten-free		wheat grade 4	wheat grade 5	barley	flour			Terms of delivery
	23-24%	27-30%	—		2 class	premium	1 grade	2 grade
	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale
Petropavlovsk station (South Ural Railway)	207-210	224-227	187-190	—	141-144	287-292	263-268	238-243	DAP
station Sary-agash	230-233	250-253	215-218	—	153-156	299-304	275-280	251-256	DAP
Lugovaya station	225-228	243-247	210-213	—	158-161	297-302	273-278	248-253	DAP
Tobol station	217-220	237-240	198-201	—	145-148	298-303	270-275	247-252	DAP
port of Aktau	243-246	260-263	224-227	—	173-176	316-321	291-296	268-273	FOB
Bekabad station	247-250	265-268	230-233	—	179-182	323-328	298-303	285-290	СРТ
Hairaton Station	297-300	317-320	278-281	—	226-229	357-362	345-350	310-315	СРТ
Turgundi station	295-298	313-316	272-275	—	235-238	307-312	280-285	253-258	СРТ
station Sarahs	—	—	—	—	221-224	—	—	—	—

Kazakhstan grain due to crop failure rises in price and loses competitiveness in foreign markets

The current agrarian season presented the peasants of Kazakhstan with one unpleasant surprise after another. Winter was not snowy, summers were arid, and autumn, on the contrary, was abnormally wet. As a result, the crop was much lower than last year. This year, grain harvest, according to experts of KazakhZerno.kz, is much less than officials report. Kazakhstan actually collected 15 million 500 thousand tons of grain, while the Ministry of Agriculture counted 19.5 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture reported on harvesting almost 99.9% of the grain wedge, and according to our regional experts, in the northern regions, farms have not yet removed up to 20% of the grain area. Some farmers tuned to leave the grain on the vine until spring, to harvest in April. RK will purchase about 2.5 million tons from Russia, and 90% will be smuggled into the country to circumvent VAT (Value Added Tax). Already, grain is being transporting to Northern Kazakhstan through field roads. Some farms will raise the crop report by 50%, import it from Russia and hand it over to the elevator as their own. There is no world trend for a rise in price of grain, but in the Republic of Kazakhstan Food Corporation artificially raised prices. Our grain is no longer exportable. So, now our grain costs $ 220, and in the Novorossiysk port on the ship – $ 211

World market

In September, after a deep fall in wheat prices in August, futures turned in a different direction and rose in the US and Europe. In the US, wheat quotes almost won back the value, in France they exceeded it, and in Britain they did not reach the positions of early August. American corn showed weak dynamics in September – only half a percent growth, soybean rose in a larger proportion. In the foreign exchange market in September, the dollar rushed towards the euro, then up or down, but eventually rose to this currency from 0.906 on August 31 to 0.914 euros per dollar on October 1. With the pound, the dollar had the opposite trend. It dropped from 0.8214 to 8125 pounds per dollar, respectively. Thus, the dollar in its equivalent supported the British and lowered French wheat. In September, the International Grain Council (IGC) kept the forecast for production, consumption and trade unchanged, but reversed the final stocks of the 2019-20 seasons.

Expert forecasts

On September 29, in its report, the International Grain Council (IGC) left the forecast for world grain production for the 2019-20 seasons at the same level – 2159 million tons. At the same time, the consumption forecast also did not change – 2186 million tons, and the final balance of the season increased in the report by 3 million tons, from 598 to 601 million tons. Again, the grain trade level has not changed – 370 million tons. Data on production, consumption and trade indicators of the current season exceed last year. Carrying balances will be lower than last season by 27 million tons. In the 2018-19 season – 628 million tons, and in the 2019-20 season – 601 million tons.

The forecasts for wheat have not changed much either. Separately, the forecast for the wheat in the IGC production report was the same – 764 million tons, no change in trade – 172 million tons, in consumption reduction by 1 million tons, from 758 to 757 million tons, and increase by one on final stocks million tons, from 271 to 272 million tons.

On 29 September, IGC experts on corn gave a decline in corn production in the 2019-20 seasons by 1 million tons, from 1,100 to 1,099 million tons, consumption remained the same – 1,139 million tons. Trade turnover grew by 1 million tons, from 164 to 165 million tons, and carry-over balances grew by 2 million tons, from 284 to 286 million tons.

According to rice, the production forecast has been reduced by 1 million tons, from 501 to 500 million tons, the previous level of trade is 46 million tons, consumption has not changed – 496 million tons, as well as final carry-over – 178 million tons.

Recall, on August 29, in its report, the International Grain Council (IGC) raised its forecast for world grain production for the 2019-20 seasons by 11 million tons, from 2148 to 2159 million tons. At the same time, the forecast of consumption rose by 2 million tons, from 2184 to 2186 million tons, and the final balance of the season in the report grew by 13 million tons, from 585 to 598 million tons. Only the grain trade level remained unchanged – 370 million tons. In any case, the production, consumption and trade indicators of the current season exceed last year. But such an important indicator as carry-over will be lower than last season by 27 million tons. In the 2018-19 season – 625 million tons, and in the 2019-20 seasons – 598 million tons.

Separately, for wheat, in the IGC production report, the forecast is an increase of 1 million tons, from 763 to 764 million tons, in trade a decrease of 1 million tons, from 173 to 172 million tons, in consumption an increase of 3 million tons, from 755 to 758 million tons and the final reserves of 1 million tons, from 270 to 271 million tons.

On corn on August 29, IGC experts gave positive forecasts for production, trade and final stocks, and negative forecasts for consumption. The corn production in the 2019-20 seasons in the report increased by 8 million tons, from 1,092 to 1,100 million tons, consumption decreased by 2 million tons, from 1,041 to 1,139 million tons. Trade turnover increased by 1 million tons, from 163 to 164 million tons, and carry-over balances increased by 11 million tons, from 273 to 284 million tons.

According to rice, the production forecast is reducing by 2 million tons, from 503 to 501 million tons, trade by 1 million tons, from 47 to 46 million tons, consumption by 2 million tons, from 468 to 496 million tons, and the final balances in the forecast grew by 16 million tons, from 162 to 178 million tons.

Dynamics of the derivatives market of wheat, corn and soybeans in September

September

From August 30 to September 6, wheat quotes on exchanges in the USA, Britain and France ended with different results. Wheat in the USA has risen to a lesser extent, and in Britain to a greater extent, and in France has decreased significantly. American corn and soybeans sank together in different proportions. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar rose sharply until the middle of the week, but then also plummeted. The dollar had the same situation with the pound, but by the end of the week, it remained almost at the same level for the euro, and fell to the pound.

Over the week of September 6–13, US wheat quotes increased significantly. In France, the growth of wheat quotes was less, but more than 2%. Only in Britain, wheat increased slightly – a couple of percent. The growth of American corn surged for 3.5%, and soybeans for 4.5%. In the foreign exchange market this week, the dollar fell against the pound, but remained almost unchanged against the euro. British wheat gained extra value in the American equivalent.

From September 13 to September 20, wheat quotes in the USA were in growth by only a couple fractions of a percent. Wheat quotes in France rose in a larger proportion and in Britain even further. American corn has risen, and soybean has lost value. During the week, on the foreign exchange market, the dollar unambiguously and deeply slid down to the pound, but rose to the euro. Thus, he in his face value supported British wheat and lowered French.

From September 20 to September 27, wheat quotes changed in different directions, but a little more than half a percent increased based on its results. In France and Britain, growth was more dynamic. The dynamics of European quotes added a rising dollar. By the end of the week, he climbed even steeper to the pound from 0.7973 on September 21 to 0.8134 pounds per dollar on September 28 and to the euro from 0.9044 to 0.91.6 euros per dollar, respectively, reducing the value of European quotes in his equivalent. At the same time, the dollar has the highest rate for the euro over the past year. American corn raised a couple of percent in a week, and soybeans did not gain ten tenths of a percent in growth.

As a result, in the dollar equivalent from August 30 to September 27, in London, wheat quotes increased by 6.4%, in Paris by 4.5%, and in Chicago by 5.4%. Corn in the United States grew by 0.5%, and soybeans by 1.6%. In Euro denominations, colza in Paris rose 1.2% and corn 0.8%.

Dynamics of quotations of wheat, corn and soybeans on world exchanges from August 30 to September 27 (in dollars per ton)

	30.08	06.09	13.09	20.09	27.09	30.08-27.09	30.08-27.09
Wheat						+ —	%
SWOT Chicago	169,9	170,4	177,6	177,9	179	9,1	105,4
LIFFE London	160	165,4	167,7	169,6	170,2	10,2	106,4
MATIF Paris	181,9	175,4	189,2	189,4	190,1	8,2	104,5
Corn SWOT	145,3	139,7	144,9	145,7	146	0,7	100,5
Soya SWOT	319,3	315,1	330,2	324,3	324,4	5,1	101,6

Colza and maize quotes on the MATIF exchange from August 30 to September 27 (in euros per ton)

	30.08	06.09	13.09	20.09	27.09	02.08-30.08 + —	02.08-30.08 %
Colza, MATIF	381,5	382,75	383,5	387,25	386	4,5	101,2
Corn, MATIF	162,75	161	162,75	163,5	164	1,25	100,8

August

The fall in wheat quotes in August was widespread and deep. British wheat was especially hard hit – almost ten percent. French and American wheat quotes declined almost equally and lost more than five percent of the value. American corn failed almost ten percent. Only soybeans did not join this company, but actually did not increase. The dollar in the foreign exchange market during the period showed high volatility against the euro and the pound, but as a result it did not change very much – it increased against the euro from 0.8965 on August 1 to 0.9025 euro per dollar on August 31, and against the pound fell from 82 , 25 to 82.14 pounds per dollar, respectively.

As a result, in the dollar equivalent from August 2 to 30 in London, wheat quotes decreased by 9.9%, in Paris by 5.4%, and in Chicago by 5.8%. Corn in the US fell 9.7%, while soybeans rose 0.09%. In Euro denomination, colza in Paris rose by 2% and corn by 3%.

FOB Cash Market In September

Over the first two weeks of September, the FOB cash market for wheat, corn, barley and soybeans in the ports of the USA, France and Argentina increased in different values. The only exception was Russia. Here, wheat, barley and corn declined, despite a significant strengthening of the ruble against the dollar over the period from 66.7471 rubles per dollar on August 30 to 64.4711 rubles per dollar on September 14. In the USA, SRW wheat grew the most, while HRW wheat gained 11% only a couple of dollars. Wheat in France increased, while in Russia it decreased equally. The price advantage for this grain went to the Russian side. Barley in Russia and France has changed in the same way and the competitor’s price gap has narrowed. Russian corn has lost almost $ 10, while American corn has grown. Soybean in the US and Argentina has increased to varying degrees.

September in its second part was quite controversial in the FOB market for wheat, corn, barley and soy on both continents. The wheat segment in US ports has changed differently depending on the type of wheat. Wheat SRW has not changed, HRW wheat has moderately grown 11%, and HRS wheat has literally soared, apparently due to increased demand for this type of grain or insufficient supply. French wheat remained unchanged in two weeks, while Russian wheat rose. A slight price advantage passed to French wheat. Russian and French barley rose equally. Russian barley has remained more expensive. American corn has grown, and Russian corn has declined. Soybeans in the US and Argentina have fallen.

In total, from August 30 to September 27, SRW wheat on the FOB basis from ports in the USA increased by $ 11 from $ 203 to $ 214 per ton. Wheat HRW with a protein content of 11% rose by $ 7 from 194 to $ 201 per ton. HRS high protein wheat raised $ 41 from $ 230 to $ 271 per ton. Corn in US ports increased by $ 5 from $ 159 to $ 162 per ton.

From August 30 to September 27, French wheat in the port of Rouen rose by $ 4 from $ 184 to $ 188 per ton. Barley from France increased by $ 5 from $ 171 to $ 176 per ton. As a result, Russian wheat in the ports of the Black Sea did not change in a month, first fell, and then increased by $ 4 from $ 185 to $ 189 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose by $ 1 from $ 177 to $ 178 per ton. Corn from Russia dropped by $ 10 from $ 172 to $ 162 per ton. US soybeans on the FOB basis fell $ 1 from $ 336 to $ 335 per ton, and Argentina soybeans fell $ 7 from $ 350 to $ 343 per ton.

Price dynamics of the FOB cash market from August 30 to September 27 for crops in the USA, France, Russia and Argentina, in dollars per ton

Culture	A country	30.08	06.09	13.09	20.09	27.09	30.08-27.09 + —
Wheat SRW	USA	203	207	214	213	214	11
Wheat HRW 11%	USA	194	194	196	201	201	7
Wheat HRS 14%	USA	230	233	237	251	271	41
Wheat	France	184	182	188	186	188	4
Wheat	Russia	189	184	185	186	189	0
Barley	France	171	175	174	173	176	5
Barley	Russia	177	176	176	176	178	1
Corn	USA	159	158	162	165	164	5
Corn	Russia	172	163	163	160	162	-10
Soybean	USA	336	328	341	334	335	-1
Soybean	Argentina	350	342	353	345	343	-7

Russia

September in the cash market of the main Russian crops was marked by an extremely high drop in corn relative to other types of crops and a significant increase in food rye. Within a month, wheat of all kinds moved in different directions, it fell and rose. The wheat segment, namely its food portion of grades 3 and 4, grew in a comparable proportion, within one percent. But compared with August, the growth dynamics in September decreased, and feed wheat even lost a tenth of a percent. Ultimately, the feed barley also threw off the feed barley, which also moved during the period along the curve of the trajectory – up and then down at the beginning of the month.

The dynamics of Russian grain in rubles turned out to be much lower than in the equivalent of the dollar. Feed wheat and barley, which fell in rubles, strengthened their position in the dollar. In September, the dollar fell by about 3.3% against the ruble, from 66.5 rubles per dollar on August 31 to 64.3 rubles per dollar on September 27. This further spurred an increase in prices in the American face value.

Harvest campaign

According to the operational data of the agro-industrial complex management bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as of October 28, 2019, in the whole country grain and leguminous crops were threshed from an area of 44.5 million hectares or 95.1% of the sown area (in 2018 – 43.7 million hectares), 121.5 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2018 – 113.1 million tons) with a yield of 27.3 kg / ha (in 2018 – 25.9 kg / ha).

Cereal crops

Of these, wheat is threshed from an area of 27.5 million hectares or 97.9% of the sown area (in 2018 – 26.2 million hectares), 77.5 million tons of grain is threshed (in 2018 – 73.2 million tons) with a yield of 28.2 c / ha (in 2018 – 27.9 c / ha). Barley is threshed from an area of 8.5 million ha or 96.5% of the sown area (in 2018 – 7.8 million ha), 21.5 million tons are threshed (in 2018 – 17.6 million tons) with yield 25.3 kg / ha (in 2018 – 22.4 kg / ha). Corn for grain was threshed from an area of 1.7 million ha or 67% of the sown area, 10.3 million tons were threshed (8.8 million tons in 2018) with a yield of 59.5 kg / ha (in 2018 – 47.6 kg / ha). Rice is threshed from an area of 172.8 thousand hectares or 89% of the sown area (160.9 thousand hectares in 2018), 1.16 million tons are threshed (1.08 million tons in 2018) with yield 67.4 kg / ha (in 2018 – 67.2 kg / ha).

Oilseeds

Long-flax flax was harvested from an area of 43 thousand ha or 85% of the sown area (in 2018 – 41.6 thousand ha). Sunflower is threshed from an area of 6.9 million ha or 81.7% of the sown area (6.6 million ha in 2018), 12.9 million tons are threshed (10.6 million tons in 2018) with yield 18.6 kg / ha (in 2018 – 16 kg / ha). Soybean is threshed from an area of 2.3 million hectares or 77.5% of the sown area (2.2 million hectares in 2018), 4 million tons are threshed (in 2018 – 3.5 million tons) with a yield of 17, 1 kg / ha (in 2018 – 15.8 kg / ha). Rapeseed was threshed from an area of 1.4 million ha or 88.6% of the sown area, 2.2 million tons were threshed (2.1 million tons in 2018) with a yield of 15.7 kg / ha (in 2018 – 14.3 kg / ha).

Vegetable crops

Potatoes in agricultural enterprises and peasant (farm) enterprises were dug from an area of 270.3 thousand ha or 89.4% of the planted area, 6.8 million tons were accumulated (in 2018 – 6.4 million tons) with a yield of 252, 7 kg / ha (in 2018 – 233.1 kg / ha). Vegetables in agricultural enterprises and peasant (farmer) farms were harvested from an area of 145.4 thousand ha, or 78.9% of the cultivated area (in 2018 – 135.2 thousand ha), 4.1 million tons were harvested (in 2018 – 3.2 million tons) with a yield of 282.2 c / ha (in 2018 – 237.9 c / ha). Sugar beets were dug from an area of 924.4 thousand ha or 80.7% of the sown area, 42.2 million tons were accumulated (36.4 million tons in 2018) with a yield of 456.2 c / ha (in 2018 . – 364.4 kg / ha).

Winter crops sowing was carried out on an area of 17.8 million hectares, or 101.6% of the projected area (in 2018 – 17.5 million hectares).

Price situation in September

September began with an increase in the main crops in Russia, but at a much slower pace than in August. The exception was again corn, which threw off more than 1000 rubles per ton. Feed wheat did not join the growth either. But it did not decrease, but remained at the same level. Grade 3 and 4 food wheat rose in almost the same proportion in the first two weeks of September. Barley rose to a lower level, and food rye became the growth leader. While wheat was gaining weight in the domestic market, FOB export prices moved in a different direction. The fading nature of growth suggests that market incentives for the fall, which appeared in August, are ending.

In the foreign exchange market, a significant strengthening of the ruble against the dollar over the period from August 30 to September 13 increased the value of Russian grain in the equivalent of international settlements more than in rubles. The ruble rose from 66.7471 rubles per dollar on August 30 to 64.4711 rubles per dollar on September 14.

From August 30 to September 13, in the FOB cash market, Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports fell $ 4 from $ 189 to $ 185 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea fell by $ 1 from $ 177 to $ 176 per ton. Corn from Russia dropped by $ 9 from $ 172 to $ 163 per ton. Wheat in France increased, while in Russia it decreased equally. The price advantage for this grain went to the Russian side. Barley in Russia and France has changed in the same way and the price gap between competitors has narrowed.

The second half of September was different for Russian crops. In the wheat segment, relative stability. Food wheat moved slightly up, grade 4 to a greater extent, and grade 3 to a lesser extent. Feed wheat also declined slightly. Food rye gave a high mouth, despite the fact that in the first half of September it thoroughly strengthened and was the leader in growth. Barley and corn fodder definitely went down in increasing dynamics. Corn succeeded especially in this. She again failed, as in the first part of September. High forecasts and the already real result of the harvest of 2019, which will surpass last year and slightly, but do not reach the record crop of 2017, given little chance of strengthening grain prices.

In the foreign exchange market, the volatility of the ruble against the dollar for the period from September 13 to 27 was quite high. The ruble fell and rose to the dollar, but in the end, these currencies did not change much to each other. Therefore, the dynamics of changes in crops almost coincides.

From September 13 to September 27, in the FOB cash market, Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports grew by $ 4 from $ 185 to $ 189 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose by $ 2 from $ 176 to $ 178 per ton. Corn from Russia dropped by $ 1 from $ 163 to $ 162 per ton. A slight price advantage passed to French wheat. Russian and French barley rose equally. Russian barley has remained more expensive.

In total, from August 30 to September 27 in Russia, grade 3 wheat increased by 100 rubles per ton or 0.9%, grade 4 wheat by 115 rubles per ton or 1.1%, and feed wheat decreased by 10 rubles per ton or by 0.1%. Food rye rose by 795 rubles per ton or 8.3%, barley dropped by 50 rubles per ton or 0.5%, and corn decreased by 1820 rubles per ton, by 16%. Peas fell by 15 rubles per ton, by 0.1%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from August 30 to September 27, rubles / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	30.08	06.09	13.09	20.09	27.09	30.08-27.09 + —	30.08-27.09 %
Wheat Grade 3 (class 23%)	11 025	11 095	11 115	11 110	11 125	100	100,9
Grade 4 Wheat	10 175	10 275	10 260	10 265	10 290	115	101,1
Food rye	9 595	9 675	9 830	10 390	10 390	795	108,3
Feed wheat	9 800	9 815	9 800	9 775	9 790	-10	99,9
Feed barley	9 305	9 390	9 355	9 295	9 255	-50	99,5
Feed corn	11 345	10 675	10 330	9 900	9 525	-1820	84,0
Peas	11 450	11 455	11 460	11 420	11 435	-15	99,9

From August 30 to September 27, in the American equivalent, class 3 wheat increased by $ 6.9 per ton, by 4.2%, grade 4 wheat by $ 6.7 per ton or 4.4%, feed wheat by $ 4.6 per ton, by 3.1%. Food rye increased by $ 17 per ton, by 11.8%, barley by $ 3.8 per ton, by 2.7%, and corn decreased by $ 22.7 per ton, by 13.3%. Peas rose by 0.3 dollars per ton, or 3%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from August 30 to September 27, dollars / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	30.08	06.09	13.09	20.09	27.09	30.08-27.09 + —	30.08-27.09 %
Wheat Grade 3 (class 23%)	$165,8	$168,1	$172,4	$174,0	$172,7	6,9	104,2
Grade 4 Wheat	$153,0	$155,7	$159,1	$160,8	$159,7	6,7	104,4
Food rye	$144,3	$146,6	$152,5	$162,7	$161,3	17,0	111,8
Feed wheat	$147,4	$148,7	$152,0	$153,1	$152,0	4,6	103,1
Feed barley	$139,9	$142,3	$145,1	$145,6	$143,7	3,8	102,7
Feed corn	$170,6	$161,7	$160,2	$155,1	$147,9	-22,7	86,7
Peas	$172,2	$173,6	$177,8	$178,9	$177,5	0,3	103,0

The tables used information from the ProZerno agency.

Cash Market FOB

As a result, Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports on the FOB basis did not change in a month, first fell, and then grew by $ 4, from $ 185 to $ 189 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose by $ 1, from $ 177 to $ 178 per ton. Corn from Russia dropped by $ 10, from $ 172 to $ 162 per ton. By the end of the month, the difference in the price of Russian and French wheat was minimal in favor of France, for wheat for one dollar, and for barley for two.

Grain Export

According to the FCS, grain exports in the current agricultural season as of October 21, 2019 amounted to 16 million tons, which is almost 12.3% lower than the same indicator of the last 2018-2019 season, when 18.3 million tons of grain were exported. Including sold wheat – 14 million tons, barley – 1.5 million tons, corn – 0.6 million tons.

A subsidy for grain transportation to the Far East may be introducing in November.

“There is an instruction of the President of the Russian Federation on the construction of a grain terminal in the port of Zarubino in the Far East with a transshipment capacity of 4 million tons with expansion options up to 10 million tons. In fact, under the work of this port, we are changing the 406th regulation, where we introduce subsidies to the eastern direction for transportation. We really hope that the government will support and adopt this decision in November”, the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia reported.

Kazakhstan

Market participants doubt the official data on the volume of grain harvested in Kazakhstan, since grain is actively imported to Kazakhstan from Russia and may be considering as a local crop-2019. Omsk colleagues say that grain is exported to Kazakhstan in large quantities, and bread prices in the neighboring Russian region will soon rise. Only in recent months, 40 thousand tons of Omsk wheat have been exported to Kazakhstan. According to IGC experts, Kazakhstan imports about 1.1 million tons of grain this year. For Kazakhstan, this is a very high figure, exceeding last year’s levels of imports by several times. How much grain is already importing in Kazakhstan’s grain stocks is still unknown. Kazakhstan grain, due to crop failure, rises in price and loses competitiveness in foreign markets. On October 25, the price of wheat on the basis of the FOB Black Sea was fixed at $ 210 per ton. Kazakh wheat surpasses this indicator.

Nevertheless, we publish official data on the volume of harvest in 2019.

According to the oblast agricultural departments, 15,249.2 thousand ha or 99.8% of all harvested areas were harvested, 19534.4 thousand tons were threshed, the average yield was 12.8 c / ha. In the grain belt of Kazakhstan in three regions at this date, the harvesting campaign is completed. The highest indicators for harvested areas and threshing grain gave Akmola region. But in terms of grain yield, this region lost the North Kazakhstan region, which has the second result in grain collection and the third in harvested areas. The third position in terms of yield and grain grinding and the second in harvested areas near the Kostanay region, which suffered most from drought.

As of October 30, 4,379.6 thousand ha were harvested in the Akmola region, 5124.1 thousand tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 11.7 centners per hectare. In the Kostanay region this year, 3968.6 thousand ha were threshed, 3002.7 thousand tons of grain were obtained with an average yield of 7.6 centners per hectare. 2861.5 thousand hectares were harvested in the North Kazakhstan region, 4794.3 thousand tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 16.8 centners per hectare. In all areas, the yield decreased to varying degrees compared to last year.

In the remaining nine regions, the situation with the crop is different. Somewhere it is below last year’s level, and somewhere above. More than 1 million tons of grain were received in the Almaty region – 1267 thousand tons with a yield of 28.9 c / ha.

From 800 thousand tons and above, the yield in the East Kazakhstan region is 937.2 thousand tons, 17 kg / ha, in the Karaganda region – 880.4 thousand tons, 10.5 kg / ha, in the Zhambyl region – 851, 3 thousand tons, 24.5 kg / ha and in the Pavlodar region – 822.8 thousand tons, 10.5 kg / ha. Over 500 thousand tons in the Turkestan region -676.7 thousand tons, 24.3 t / ha and Kyzylorda region – 548.9 thousand tons, 56.3 t / ha.

In the Aktobe region and West Kazakhstan regions, the yield is below this level – 380 thousand tons with a yield of 8.3 c / ha and 249 thousand tons with a yield of 10.2 c / ha, respectively. In three regions of Almaty, Zhambyl and Turkestan cleaning is not yet completing.

Expert forecasts

In the October USDA Agricultural Service report for Kazakhstan in the 2019-20 seasons, data on wheat production and export remained the same. Recall that in the September USDA Agricultural Service report, wheat production was reducing from 13 to 11.5 million tons in relation to the previous August forecast. This is the lowest production rate of this grain in six years. In the last 2019-20 season, production amounted to 13.947 million tons. Wheat export from Kazakhstan was reducing from 6.5 to 5.2 million tons of wheat. Last season, according to this expert group, wheat exports were at the level of 8.3 million tons.

In the latest report of the International Grain Council (IGC), published on October 24, the forecast for grain production in Kazakhstan for 2019-20 MY was left unchanged at 16.8 million tons. Meanwhile, in the 2018-19 seasons, the harvest was 2.4 million tons more. A year earlier, local farmers collected 19.3 million tons from their fields.

The initial reserves of grain crops in the country this year, according to October data, are 2.3 million tons. A year earlier, this indicator was higher by 0.9 million tons. In a previous report, analysts gave a similar estimate for initial reserves.

Grain supply in Kazakhstan during the period under review also decreased to 20.2 million tons. The previous report promised even more modest supply volume – 19.2 million tons. Last year, this indicator was equal to 22.5 million tons.

Grain imports in the country during the period under review will increase to 1.1 million tons. A season earlier, the volume of purchases amounted to only 0.2 million tons. In September, IGC experts predicted grain imports of 0.1 million tons.

Meanwhile, grain exports for 2019-20 MY in the October IGC report are projected at 8.1 million tons. Last season, 2.5 million tons of grain were delivered abroad. Meanwhile, the September expert assessment was 0.5 million tons lower than current expectations.

The forecast for grain consumption in Kazakhstan in the current season, according to IGC at the end of October, is 9.8 million tons. A month earlier, analysts gave an appropriate assessment. A year earlier, the volume of use was lower by 0.2 million tons.

The final grain reserves in 2019-20, according to the latest data, may be reduced to 2.3 million tons. In September, the forecast was more pessimistic by 0.5 million tons. Last season carryover stocks were in line with the estimate for this season.

Dynamics of grain stocks

This year, in the midst of autumn, Kazakhstan turned out to have much less grain than last year, almost 3 million tons. Firstly, this is due to the unsuccessful September grain harvest, which was filling with rains, which made it difficult to carry out the harvesting campaign. Therefore, in September, farmers harvested less grain than this month last year. Secondly, last year the volumes of the final remains of old grain at the beginning of the season were significantly higher than this year, more than 1 million tons of grain. In 2018, on July 1, there were 5190837 in Kazakhstan, and this year only 3991767, less, if more precisely, 1199070 tons.

As of October 1, 2019, according to the Statistics Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 12654519 tons of grain were recorded. Last 2018, the republic had 15639739 tons of grain. This year’s grain stocks decreased by 2985220 tons or 19.1% compared to last year.

By appointment of grain. The main reduction in stocks occurred in the food grain segment – 98% of the total reduction. This year, food grain inventories decreased from 12420216 to 9493556 tons, or 2926660 tons, or 23.6%. Compared to food grain, the availability of feed grain is quite comparable to last year’s level. This year it became the least by 0.6% and decreased from 2402796 to 2387298 tons, by 15498 tons. Seed grain this year is also less by 43,062 tons, or 5.3%. Last year it was 816727 tons, and in the current 773665 tons.

Grain stocks in Kazakhstan on October 1, 2018 and 2019, in tons

	As of October 1, 2018	As of October 1, 2019	2019 to 2018,+ —	2019 to 2018, %
Total crops	15 639 739	12 654 519	-2985220	80,9
for food	12 420 216	9 493 556	-2926660	76,4
for seeds	816 727	773 665	-43062	94,7
on fodder	2 402 796	2 387 298	-15498	99,4

In the context of individual crops, their volumes in relation to last year are in most cases lower than last year’s level. This year, on October 1, grain in Kazakhstan is almost 20% less than last year. As of October 1, 2019, according to the Statistics Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 12654519 tons of grain was recording. Last 2018, the republic had 15639739 tons of grain. This year’s grain stocks decreased by 2985220 tons or 19.1% compared to last year.

In absolute terms, wheat turned out to be the least. Its reserves this year as of October 1 were reduced by 2676600 tons from 11645 072 in 2018 to 8968472 tons in 2019. More than 100 thousand tons of barley lost in reserves. Its quantity decreased by 128130 tons from 2756827 to 2628697 tons. This year, stocks of oats, buckwheat, rye and millet decreased in different volumes.

But there are exceptions. Stocks of corn and rice increased this year. Rice increased by 62642 tons from 223588 to 286230 tons, and corn by 34169 tons from 214523 to 248692 tons.

In relative percentages compared to last year, the picture is somewhat different. Almost half the amount of buckwheat decreased – 53% compared to the previous year, rye – 59.6%, millet – 67.6%, and wheat 77%.

During the September harvesting campaign, the grain balance was significantly replenished with the grain of the new crop, and its volumes increased in many regions by two or more times compared to last month. The amount of grain has increased in most regions. In the grain belt areas of more than one million tons in each of the three. In four regions more than 300 thousand tons, in two regions more than 100 thousand tons, in three regions and two cities less than that. But the volume of grain has not increased everywhere. In two regions and in one city of republican subordination, the amount of grain decreased.

Grain reserves at the beginning of the year were at the level of 14465559 tons and decreased by 1328793 tons or by 8.4% during the month. As of February 1 of this year, Kazakhstan recorded 11867608 tons of grain, and stocks decreased by 2597951 tons or 18%. By March 1, grain stocks amounted to 10,277,759 tons and decreased in February by 1,589,849 tons or by 13.4%. As of April 1, the amount of grain decreased to 9234499, by 1043260 tons or 10.2%. As of May 1, statistics took into account 7840581 in the republic with a decrease of 1393918 tons or 15.1%.

By June 1, grain stocks decreased by another 2546117 tons to 5294464 tons or 32.5%. By the beginning of the new season in Kazakhstan, 3991767 tons were recording with a decrease of 1302697 tons or 24.6%. In July, grain stocks in Kazakhstan decreased from 3991767 to 3468869 tons, by 522898 tons or 13.1%. In August, the volume of grain increased from 3468869 to 5106469.5 tons, by 1,637,600.5 tons, or 47.2%. In September to October 1, the amount of grain increased from 5106469 to 12654519 and increased by 7548049 tons or 2.45 times.

More than 300 thousand tons of grain became more in four regions. These are Karaganda region – by 505460 tons from 209950 to 715410 tons, East Kazakhstan region – by 405236 tons from 312211 to 717447 tons, Pavlodar region – by 376200 tons from 119030 to 495230 tons and Almaty region – by 317870 tons from 228638 to 546508 tons. Grains decreased in September in the Zhambyl region by 2014 tons, in the city of Almaty by 267 tons and in the Atyrau region by 107 tons.

In the three largest grain regions of Kazakhstan in September, grain volumes increased by two or more times. In the Akmola region, the amount of grain increased by 2245684 tons from 1274363 to 3520047 tons, or 2.76 times, in the North Kazakhstan region – by 2185358 tons from 1470138 to 3655496 tons, or 2.49 times, and in the Kostanay region by 1059918 tons from 778549 to 1838467 tons or 2.36 times. Each region changed the share of grain in total republican stocks. In the Akmola region, it increased to 27.8%, in the Kostanay region it decreased to 14.5%, but in the North Kazakhstan region it rose to 28.9%.

In just three-grain regions, grain volumes increased by 5490960 from 3523050 to 9014010 tons, or 2.54 times. The share of grain in these areas was 71.2%. As of October 1, 63061 tons of grain was stored in farms and farms in the North Kazakhstan region. In the Kostanay region 381724 tons and in Akmola 380744 tons.

Currently, the following domestic prices:

At the moment, in the capital of the republic, Astana, grade 3 wheat is sold at 80,000 tenge per ton. Flour of the 1st grade in the capital is sold at 118900 tenge per ton, premium grade – at 133400 tenge per ton. The second grade of flour in the markets costs 104400 tenge per ton.

In the Akmola region, a ton of class 3 wheat can be sold at 79,700 tenge, and wheat above 27% gluten – for 84,400 tenge per ton, barley of the 2nd class costs 51,000 tenge per ton. The highest grade of flour is currently sold at 132500 tenge, flour of the 1st and 2nd grades is offered at 118,000 tenge and 101500 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region, 3 classes of wheat are sold at 79,000 tenge, wheat above 27% gluten for 86,000 tenge. Barley in North-Kazakhstan region is currently sold at 51,000 tenge per ton. North-Kazakhstan residents sell premium flour at 130,500 tenge per ton, and 1st grade – at 116,000 tenge per ton. Flour of the 2nd grade goes to 101500 tenge per ton.

In the Kostanay region, the price of class 3 wheat reached 80300 tenge per ton, wheat above 27% gluten costs 85400 tenge. Grade 2 barley Kostanay farmers offer 51300 tenge per ton. The market value of flour of all varieties: the highest – at 131,500 tenge, the first grade in the region is trading at 117,000 tenge. Flour of the 2nd grade in the Kostanay region costs 102500 tenge per ton.

In Pavlodar region a ton of wheat of 3 classes is sold for 80,700 tenge, barley – at 51,800 tenge per ton. Flour prices in Pavlodar region were as follows: top grade – 132300 tenge per ton, 1 grade – 117800 tenge per ton, 2 grade – 103,300 tenge per ton.

In the Karaganda region, a ton of grade 3 wheat costs 82,700 tenge, wheat above 27% gluten – 87,000 tenge per ton. Barley – 51100 tenge per ton. The highest grade of flour is traded at 133500 tenge per ton, flour of the 1st and 2nd grades is sold at 119,000 tenge and 104500 tenge per ton.

Grade 3 wheat in the East Kazakhstan region is sold at 80,800 tenge per ton, barley – 54,100 tenge per ton. Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades in East Kazakhstan is sold at 132600, 118100 and 104600 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the West Kazakhstan region, the price of wheat of 3 classes is at the level of 81500 tenge per ton. Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades in WKO is sold at 134200, 120700, 106200 tenge respectively.

Currently, in the Almaty region 3 classes of wheat are offered at 82,200 tenge per ton. Barley – at 52500 tenge per ton. Top grade flour costs about 133200 tenge per ton, 1 grade – 118700 tenge per ton. Flour of the 2nd grade is sold at 104200 tenge per ton.

Grade 3 wheat in the Zhambyl region is currently sold at 87,700 tenge per ton, and second-class barley – at 53,600 tenge per ton. Top-grade flour in the region is sold at 134100 tenge, 1 grade is traded in the region of 119600 tenge, 2 grade – 105100 tenge per ton.

In the Turkestan region, wheat of the third class is sold at 81,900 tenge per ton, and barley – 53,300 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade in South Kazakhstan is currently fixing at 134100, 119600 and 105100 tenge per ton.

In the Aktobe region, wheat of the 3rd class costs 84,000, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades is sold at 135500, 121000 and 106500 tenge per ton.

In the Kyzylorda region wheat of the 3rd class costs 83,400 tenge per ton. Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades are sold at 133700, 119200 and 105700 tenge per ton.

In the southern capital, Almaty, grade 3 wheat is sold at 83,200 tenge per ton. The highest grade of flour in Almaty costs 134600 tenge per ton, the 1st and 2nd grade leaves the markets for 120 100 and 104600 tenge per ton, respectively.

Export

Grade 3 wheat with a gluten content of 23% on DAP conditions from the Lugovaya station (Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan) is sold (hereinafter dollars per ton) at $ 225-228, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 243-247, barley – 158-161 , flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs 297-302, 273-278, 248-253 dollars per ton.

Grade 3 wheat from elevators of the South Ural Railway is currently sold at $ 207-210, wheat above 27% gluten – $ 224-227, barley – for $ 141-144, flour, 1st, 2nd and 2nd grades – at $ 287 -292, $ 263-268 and $ 238-243, respectively.

At the Sary-Agash station (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan, DAP) the 3rd class of wheat costs $ 230-233, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 250-253, barley – 153-156, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs 299-304, 275-280, 251-256 dollars per ton.

At the Tobol station (DAP), the 3rd class of wheat costs $ 217-220, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 237-240, barley – 145-148, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs 298-303, 270- 275, 247-252 dollars per ton.

At Khairaton station (Uzbekistan-Afghanistan, CPT), the price of wheat of the 3rd class is $ 297-300, for wheat with gluten 27-30% – 317-320, barley – 226-229, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade – 357-362, 345-350, 310-315 dollars per ton.

In the port of Aktau, on FOB terms, wheat is sold at $ 243-246 with gluten above 27% – $ 260-263, barley – $ 173-176. Premium, first and second grade flour can be bought for $ 316-321, $ 291-296 and $ 268-273 per ton.

Reference: 1 dollar = 388 tg, 1 euro = 432 tg, 1 ruble = 6.1 tg.

Alimbek Gabitov