Grain export prices of September 25, 2019

A summary table of prices for grain crops and flour in tenge per ton in Kazakhstan as of September 25, 2019, incl. 12% VAT

Name of the field	wheat grade 3, gluten-free		wheat grade 4	wheat grade 5	barley	Flour
Name of the field	23-24%	27-30%	wheat grade 4	wheat grade 5	barley	premium	1 grade	2 grade
Akmola	71700	76200	62700	55700	50000	102500	98000	91500
Aktobe	75500	—	66500	59500	55100	105500	101000	96500
Almaty	73700	—	64700	57700	51500	103200	98700	94200
East Kazakhstan	72300	—	63300	56300	53100	102600	98100	94600
Zhambyl	73200	—	64200	57200	52600	104100	99600	95100
West Kazakhstan	74500	—	65500	58500	—	104200	100700	96200
Karaganda	74700	79000	65700	58700	50100	103500	99000	94500
Kyzylorda	74900	—	65900	58900	—	103700	99200	95700
Kostanay	72300	77800	63300	56300	50300	101500	97000	92500
Pavlodar	74700	—	65700	58700	50800	102300	97800	93300
North Kazakhstan	70800	77300	61800	54800	50000	100500	96000	91500
South Kazakhstan	73400	79700	64400	57400	52300	104100	99600	95100
Astana city	74100	80600	65100	58100	—	103400	98900	94400
Almaty city	74700	—	65700	58700	—	104600	100100	94600

New grain will be difficult and expensive

The focus of the participants of the agricultural market and those who somehow contact it indirectly is now in the area of the harvesting campaign, which is currently at the peak. More than half of the grain fields have already been harvesting, but harvesting has proved difficult and costly. The September rains slowed down the cleaning process, and by the middle of the month its rates had fallen below last year’s level. The farmers fished every fine day to catch up to the snow, hopeless rains and frosts. In some regions, it was just right to declare a state of emergency. But this has not been done. Everything fell on the peasant shoulders, which last week committed, in fact, a labor feat. For a week, from September 14 to 21, North Kazakhstan farmers, for example, threshed more grain than for the entire previous harvesting period. Further, the weather does not promise sunny surprises and a comfortable walk through the fields, an analyst of KazakhZerno.kz notes. The cost of grain is already surpassing the acceptable market rates. Who will remain in profit and who will be in loss – try to guess.

World market

The fall in wheat quotes in August was widespread and deep. British wheat was especially hard hit – almost ten percent. French and American wheat quotes declined almost equally and lost more than five percent of the value. American corn failed almost ten percent. Only soybeans did not join this company, but actually did not increase.

The dollar in the foreign exchange market during the period showed high volatility against the euro and the pound. As a result, it has changed not very significantly. Grew against the euro from 0.8965 on August 1 to 0.9025 euros per dollar on August 31. To the pound, it dropped from 82.25 to 82.14 pounds per dollar, respectively.

The forecast for world production of all types of grain in 2019/20 has been increased since last month, mainly due to an increase in the estimate for US corn, but the prospects for production are still unclear, given the far from ideal conditions during the growing season. The forecast for world consumption has been increasing since last month, as the increase in wheat and sorghum is partly offset by a decrease in corn. Considering the improvement in the estimate of the supply of grain from the previous harvest, as well as a higher level of reserves at the beginning of the year, the prospective estimate of world reserves at the end of the year from last month was increased, however, it is still 27 million tons lower than last year and is a four-year low. The trade indicator actually remained at the level of the last month.

Expert forecasts

On August 29, in its report, the International Grain Council (IGC) raised its forecast for world grain production for the 2019-20 seasons by 11 million tons, from 2148 to 2159 million tons. At the same time, the forecast of consumption rose by 2 million tons, from 2184 to 2186 million tons, and the final balance of the season in the report grew by 13 million tons, from 585 to 598 million tons. Only the grain trade level remained unchanged – 370 million tons. In any case, the production, consumption and trade indicators of the current season exceed last year. But such an important indicator as carry-over will be lower than last season by 27 million tons. In the 2018-19 season – 625 million tons, and in the 2019-20 season – 598 million tons.

Separately, for wheat, in the IGC production report, the forecast is an increase of 1 million tons, from 763 to 764 million tons, in trade a decrease of 1 million tons, from 173 to 172 million tons, in consumption an increase of 3 million tons, from 755 to 758 million tons, and the final reserves growth of 1 million tons, from 270 to 271 million tons.

On corn on August 29, IGC experts gave positive forecasts for production, trade and final stocks, and negative forecasts for consumption. The corn production in the 2019-20 season in the report increased by 8 million tons, from 1,092 to 1,100 million tons, consumption decreased by 2 million tons, from 1,041 to 1,139 million tons. Trade turnover increased by 1 million tons, from 163 to 164 million tons, and carry-over balances increased by 11 million tons, from 273 to 284 million tons.

According to rice, the production forecast is reducing by 2 million tons, from 503 to 501 million tons, trade by 1 million tons, from 47 to 46 million tons, consumption by 2 million tons, from 468 to 496 million tons, and the final balance in the forecast grew by 16 million tons, from 162 to 178 million tons.

Dynamics of the derivatives market of wheat, corn and soybeans in August

In early August, wheat quotes in the United States strengthened their positions, while European wheat declined, in Britain to a small extent, and in France more than a percent growth. American corn and soybeans have grown more progressively than wheat. By the end of the week, after the fall, the dollar rose to the euro and the pound and remains at these levels quite high against these currencies. This accordingly reduced the position of European quotes in the American equivalent.

After a significant failure on the eve, wheat quotes in the USA stabilized and remained almost unchanged during the week of August 16-23. Except for an extremely slight decrease of less than a tenth of a percent. Wheat quotes in Britain moderated the decline, while in France fell to the same extent. American corn, unlike wheat, fell sharply again, by more than 3%, and soybeans by more than 2.5%. Over the period, the dollar fell against the pound, but rose to the euro and thereby raised British wheat in its nominal value and lowered French wheat.

The beginning of the week from August 23 to 30 on Monday was marked by zero dynamics of close wheat contacts in France and Britain. The following December French wheat contracts rose at around half a percent. Wheat quotes in the US on Monday fell. American corn timed out and soybeans rose. On Tuesday, wheat quotes in the United States turned up, and in Europe after the holidays on Monday, went in different directions. In Britain, wheat sank, while in France it declined at approximately the same rate. American corn fell more than soybeans that day. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar again fell to the pound, but turned up to the euro.

In the middle of the week, wheat quotes in the USA continued to rise slowly. In France, the dynamics of wheat quotes has changed from rising to falling. In Britain, quotes remained unchanged. American corn and soybeans went up, the first to a greater and the second to a lesser extent. On Thursday, wheat quotes in the US turned downward. In France, wheat continued to fall, but at a slower rate. In Britain, quotes after downtime the day before also swung down. American corn and soybeans were moving downward, but in a smaller proportion. By the end of the week, wheat quotes in the USA continued to fall and fell beyond 170 tenge per ton. In Britain and France, wheat repeated the trajectory of American wheat, but at a lesser rate. American corn declined along with soy in different proportions.

As a result, in the dollar equivalent from August 2 to 30 in London, wheat quotes decreased by 9.9%, in Paris by 5.4%, and in Chicago by 5.8%. Corn in the US fell 9.7%, while soybeans rose 0.09%. In Euro denomination, rapeseed in Paris rose by 2% and corn by 3%.

Dynamics of quotations of wheat, corn and soybeans on world exchanges from August 2 to 30 (in dollars per ton)

	02.08	09.08	16.08	23.08	30.08	02.08-30.08	02.08-30.08
Wheat						+ –	%
SWOT Chicago	180,3	178,9	175,4	175,5	169,9	-10,4	94,2
LIFFE London	177,5	177,9	167,4	163	160	-17,5	90,1
MATIF Paris	192,2	191,3	187,3	182,7	181,9	-10,3	94,6
Corn SWOT	160,9	162,8	149,6	144,5	145,3	-15,6	90,3
Soya SWOT	319	318,6	323,2	314,7	319,3	0,3	100,09

Rapeseed and maize quotes on the MATIF exchange from August 2 to 30 (in euros per ton)

	02.08	09.08	16.08	23.08	30.08	02.08-30.08 + –	02.08-30.08 %
Colza, MATIF	374	374,5	380	376,25	381,5	7,5	102,0
Corn, MATIF	158	173	168,5	164,5	162,75	4,75	103,0

Dynamics of the derivatives market of wheat, corn and soybeans in July

In July, wheat quotes on both continents were unambiguous and all together failed in a significant proportion. Wheat in the United States gained weight in May and June, but lost 7% in July. In Britain, wheat quotes for all these three months only fell. In France, wheat in May at first held almost the same level in May, but rolled back in June and July. In July, American corn and soybeans mainly followed wheat and fell in almost the same, but slightly less dynamic.

In the foreign exchange market in July, the dollar made a steep path up to the euro from 0.8831 on July 2 to 0.9057 euro per dollar on August 2, and to the pound from 0.7902 to 0.8252 pounds per dollar. This factor has become an additional reason for the decline in European quotes in the American equivalent.

Cash market for agricultural products

In August, the FOB cash market in the ports of the USA, France and Russia was definitely a failure. Wheat in the USA sank most of all – from 11 to 23 dollars per ton, depending on the species. Least SRW, and HRS at most 14%. French and Russian wheat sank almost equally. Russian wheat remains more expensive than French wheat at $ 5 per ton. The same situation is with barley, although at the beginning of the month Russian grain was cheaper than French. But during the period, French barley decreased significantly, and Russian remained at the same level. American and Russian corn in August lost 20 or more dollars per ton. The soybean market in the United States turned out to be relatively stable, but Argentinean soybean has grown significantly, most likely against the backdrop of increased demand for this crop from China.

In total, in August, SRW wheat on the FOB basis from ports in the United States dropped by $ 11, from $ 214 to $ 203 per ton. Wheat HRW with a protein content of 11% decreased by $ 17, from $ 211 to $ 194 per ton. HRS high protein wheat fell $ 23, from $ 253 to $ 230 a ton. Corn in US ports dropped 23 dollars, from 182 to 159 dollars per ton.

French wheat in the port of Rouen in August fell by $ 8, from $ 192 to $ 184 per ton. Barley from France dropped by $ 9, from $ 180 to $ 171 per ton. Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports fell by $ 7, from $ 196 to $ 189 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea has not changed – $ 177 per ton. Corn from Russia dropped by $ 20, from $ 192 to $ 172 per ton.

US soybeans on the FOB basis fell by $ 1, from $ 337 to $ 336 per ton, and Argentina soybeans grew by $ 18, from $ 332 to $ 350 per ton.

Price dynamics of the FOB cash market in August for crops in the USA, France, Russia and Argentina, in dollars per ton

Culture	A country	02.08	09.08	16.08	23.08	30.08	02-30.08
Wheat SRW	USA	214	221	209	210	203	-11
Wheat HRW 11%	USA	211	211	206	195	194	-17
Wheat HRS 14%	USA	253	248	242	231	230	-23
Wheat	France	192	191	188	185	184	-8
Wheat	Russia	196	196	194	190	189	-7
Barley	France	180	179	174	173	171	-9
Barley	Russia	177	178	180	180	177	0
Corn	USA	182	187	168	162	159	-23
Corn	Russia	192	191	185	185	172	-20
Soybean	USA	337	344	340	338	336	-1
Soybean	Argentina	332	353	349	353	350	18

Russia

On September 11, a working meeting between Russian Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev and President Vladimir Putin took place. During the meeting, the Minister told the Head of State about the state of affairs in the country’s agricultural sector, the progress of the harvesting campaign, sowing of winter crops, the productivity of the fields, and forecasts for the 2019 crop about the situation in animal husbandry.

Dmitry Patrushev began a report at the request of Putin with data on the progress of autumn field work. Harvesting is carrying out in almost all federal districts. We have to harvest from 80 million hectares. The planned forecast for this year, as I previously reported to you, is about 118 million tons. Last year, this figure was 113.3 million tons, this year a little better.

And most importantly, we are increasing wheat harvest by three million tons, which is also positive. Such a volume, as we assume, will allow us to satisfy our domestic demand, realize our export opportunities, and export potential. In general, cleaning takes place as usual.

Harvest campaign

According to the operational data of the agro-industrial complex management bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as of September 13, in the whole country, grain and leguminous crops were threshed from an area of 34.7 million ha or 74.2% of the sown area (in 2018 – 32 million ha), 97.6 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2018 – 87.6 million tons) with a yield of 28.1 c / ha (in 2018 – 27.4 c / ha).

Of these, wheat is threshed from an area of 21.9 million hectares or 78.1% of the sown area (in 2018 – 19.7 million hectares), 67.6 million tons of grain are threshed (in 2018 – 61.6 million tons ) with a yield of 30.8 kg / ha (in 2018 – 31.3 kg / ha). Barley is threshed from an area of 7.5 million ha or 85.6% of the sown area (6.5 million ha in 2018), 19.4 million tons are threshed (15.2 million tons in 2018) with yield 25.8 kg / ha (in 2018 – 23.2 kg / ha). Corn for grain was threshed from an area of 299 thousand ha or 11.6% of the sown area, 1.4 million tons were threshed (in 2018 – 1 million tons) with a yield of 48 kg / ha (in 2018 – 32.9 c / ha). Rice is threshed from an area of 33.4 thousand ha, or 17.2% of the sown area (13.9 thousand ha in 2018), 221.6 thousand tons are threshed (85.8 thousand in 2018). tons) with a yield of 66.4 kg / ha (in 2018 – 61.8 kg / ha).

Oilseeds

Flax waterable the square of 31.2 thousand hectares or 61.7% of the cultivated area (in 2018 28.4 million ha). Sunflower throughout the areas of 1.1 million hectares or 13% of the cultivated area (in 2018 516,8 thousand ha), harvested 2.6 million tons (in 2018 989,5 thousand tons) with a yield of 23.2 C/ha (in 2018. – 19,1 C/ha). Soybean threshed from the area of 817,7 thousand hectares or 26.9% of the cultivated area (in 2018 551,1 thousand ha), and produced 1.7 million tons (2018 – 1 million tons) with the yield of 20.4 C/ha (in 2018. – 18,3 kg/ha). Rapeseed throughout the areas of 549,6 thousand hectares or 35,2% of the sown area, harvested 1 million tons (2018, 1 million tons) with a yield of 18.8 C/ha (2018 – 16,1 t/ha).

Sowing of winter crops conducted on an area of 8.5 million hectares or 48.8% of the forecasted area (2018 – 8.2 million ha).

Forecasts of experts

In the September report Agricultural Service, USDA wheat production compared to the previous August forecast has been reducing from 73 to 72.5 million tons. Wheat exports from Russia has not changed and amounted to 34 million tons of wheat, domestic consumption of grain fell in the forecast from 40 to 39.5 million tonnes, and the final seasonal balances reduced from 7,463 to 7,305 million tons.

The price situation in August

After the July significant loss of grain crops in Russia, published for some items beyond 10%, in August, began the restoration of their former value. As in July, in August in the list of major grain crops “black sheep” turned out to be corn. In July she grew up amid the decline, and in August dropped to background growth. In the wheat segment in August food wheat 3 and 4 classes has decreased almost in equal measure, falling from the feed side of the segment appeared to be more significant. Barley in August showed them more modestly and rose only to within half a percent, and corn has increased. Food rye scored more than 5%. Wheat almost kept their export prices in dollar terms. This contributed to the situation on the currency market in August.

In the foreign exchange market in August the ruble dropped significantly. For the period he fell against the dollar with 63,4132 rubles to the dollar on August 1 to 66,4897 rubles per dollar on August 31, or 4.6%. This provoked on the one hand, the additional growth of crops in the ruble denomination, and on the other have frozen or even lowered the position of the grain in equivalent U.S. currency, which is Central to the calculations of international trade.

In August, the cash market of the Russian FOB wheat at Black sea ports fell by $ 7, from 196 to 189 USD per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black sea has not changed – 177 dollars per ton. Corn from Russia dropped to $ 20, from 192 to 172 USD per ton. French and Russian wheat dropped almost in equal measure. Russian wheat remains more expensive French $ 5 per ton. Same situation for barley, although in the early months of the Russian grain was cheaper than the French. But during the period of French barley significantly reduced, and Russian has remained at the same level.

From 2 to 30 August in Russia wheat class 3 increased by 270 rubles per ton, or 2.5%, wheat of class 4 for 285 rubles per ton, or 2.9%, and feed wheat at 535 rubles per ton or 6.1%. Food rye rose to 360 rubles per ton, or 5.2%, barley 40 rubles per ton, or 0.4%, and corn dropped to 105 rubles per ton, 1%. The peas grew to 960 rubles per ton, 9.2%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from August 2 to 30, rubles / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	02.08	09.08	16.08	23.08	30.08	02.08-30.08 + –	02.08-30.08 %
Wheat Grade 3 (class 23%)	10 755	10 785	10 860	10 905	11 025	270	102,5
Grade 4 Wheat	9 890	9 980	10 155	10 205	10 175	285	102,9
Food rye	9 120	9 135	9 415	9 480	9 595	360	105,2
Feed wheat	9 235	9 415	9 590	9 790	9 800	535	106,1
Feed barley	9 265	9 275	9 240	9 330	9 305	40	100,4
Feed corn	11 450	11 500	11 465	11 365	11 345	-105	99,0
Peas	10 490	10 435	10 495	11 410	11 450	960	109,2

From August 2 to 30, in the American equivalent, class 3 wheat decreased by $ 0.6 per ton, by 0.4%, grade 4 wheat maintained its previous position, feed wheat rose by $ 4.5 per ton, by 3.1%. Food rye increased by $ 3.2 per ton, by 2.3%, barley decreased by $ 3.4 per ton, by 2.4%, and corn by $ 6.5 per ton, by 3.7%. Peas rose by $ 9.9 per ton or 6%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from August 2 to 30, dollars / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	02.08	09.08	16.08	23.08	30.08	28.05-02.08 + –	28.05-02.08 %
Wheat Grade 3 (class 23%)	$166,4	$165,3	$164,6	$166,2	$165,8	-0,6	99,6
Grade 4 Wheat	$153,0	$152,9	$153,9	$155,6	$153,0	0	100,0
Food rye	$141,1	$140,0	$142,7	$144,5	$144,3	3,2	102,3
Feed wheat	$142,9	$144,3	$145,3	$149,2	$147,4	4,5	103,1
Feed barley	$143,3	$142,1	$140,0	$142,2	$139,9	-3,4	97,6
Feed corn	$177,1	$176,2	$173,7	$173,2	$170,6	-6,5	96,3
Peas	$162,3	$159,9	$159,0	$173,9	$172,2	9,9	106,0

The tables used information from the ProZerno agency.

In July, crops in Russia declined as well as in June. But the exception was corn, which rose slightly in ruble denomination, but fell in dollar terms. The direction of price dynamics during the month was different. All cultures actively fell the first two decades of the month. The wheat segment, namely wheat of the 3rd, 4th grade and its fodder part, moved down almost parallel. Then the decline slowed down, and in the last week of the period, all crops grew to one degree or another, and corn especially sharply.

The ruble against the dollar in July formed in a negative direction, and this further reduced the value of Russian grain in the American equivalent. The ruble lowered from 63.0541 rubles per dollar on July 2 to 63,834 rubles per dollar on August 2. All crops in dollars declined more rapidly than in rubles.

In the FOB cash market, in July from June 28 to August 2, Russia lost an obvious price for wheat in relation to French grain. Although Russian wheat had a weak fall – only two dollars per ton from 198 to 196 dollars per ton, French wheat declined much more sharply during this period – by 23 dollars per ton from 215 to 192 dollars per ton. Russian barley in July increased and remains more competitive – $ 177 per ton, and French barley – $ 180 per ton. Although the price difference has decreasing significantly. Russian corn at FOB basis at the end of the month was estimating at $ 192 per ton

In total, from June 28 to August 2 in Russia, grade 3 wheat dropped by 1,405 rubles per ton or 11.5%, wheat grade 4 by 1,435 rubles per ton or 12.7%, and feed wheat by 1,305 rubles per ton or 12.4%. Food rye decreased by 775 rubles per ton or by 7.8%, barley by 720 rubles per ton or by 7.2%, and corn rose by 50 rubles per ton, by 0.4%. Peas fell by 895 rubles per ton, by 7.9%.

From June 28 to August 2, in the American equivalent, class 3 wheat decreased by $ 28.4 per ton, by 13.7%, grade 4 wheat by $ 26.5 per ton, by 14.8%, feed wheat by 24.2 dollars per ton, up 14.5%. Food rye fell by $ 15.8 per ton, by 10.1%, barley decreased by $ 15 per ton, by 9.5%, and corn by $ 3.6 per ton, by 1.2%. Peas fell $ 8.2 per ton, or 10.1%.

Grain export

According to the FCS, grain exports in the current agricultural season as of September 9 amounted to 10.1 million tons, which is almost 14% lower than the same indicator of the last 2018/2019 agricultural year, when 11.8 million tons of grain were exported. Including sold: wheat – 8.7 million tons, barley – 1.1 million tons, corn – 0.3 million tons.

Kazakhstan

Harvesting campaign in July and August

The first record according to harvesting data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan appeared on July 17. At this moment, only four regions participated in the harvesting campaign – Almaty, Zhambyl, Kyzylorda and Turkestan. By this date, they threshed 436 thousand tons of grain with an average yield of 19.7 centners per hectare. This indicator turned out to be higher than last year both in threshing and yield. In July, as a result of the harvesting campaign of winter grain crops in the southern regions of the country, according to operational information from the regions, 1171.4 tons of grain were harvested with a yield of 20.3 centners per hectare.

During the August harvesting campaign, another 4,312.4 thousand tons of new grain were filled up in the bins. By mid-August, on the 15th, seven regions had already taken part in the harvesting campaign. The East Kazakhstan, West Kazakhstan and Pavlodar region started cleaning. In total, 947.7 thousand hectares of fields were threshed on this date and 1877.8 thousand tons of grain were obtained. Average yield slightly increased to 19.8 centners per hectare. And by August 20, the harvesting campaign began in the Karaganda and Kostanai regions, and then in the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions.

A total of 4782.4 thousand hectares, or 31.4%, were threshed during August and July on September 2 and 5483.8 thousand tons of grain with a yield of 11.5 centners per hectare were obtained. This year, at the end of August, the harvesting rate exceeded last year, more grain was obtained, but the average yield was lower than in the previous year. In 2018, at the end of August, 1862.6 thousand hectares or 12.4% of the harvested area with grain grinding of 2678.1 thousand tons were harvested with an average yield of 14.4 centners per hectare.

The harvesting campaign in September

The harvesting campaign in Kazakhstan started in optimal conditions and from the beginning showed a high rate. But in September, weather conditions made their negative adjustments. The pace of the harvesting campaign in Kazakhstan began to fall and by the end of last week dropped to the level below last year’s values. The reason for the unfavorable harvesting weather, expressed in the rains that covered the grain regions of Kazakhstan – Akmola, North Kazakhstan and Kostanay region. In the work of combine operators there were forced delays, and the rate of harvest has decreased. The September rains stopped the harvesting. But in the gaps between rains, farmers were making up for lost time. The declining rate of harvest in these areas has negatively affected Kazakhstan’s indicators.

On 9 September in all regions of Kazakhstan this year was threshed 5357,8 thousand hectares, and last year 3597,9 thousand hectares, or almost a third, 32.8%. By 13 September, the ratio has changed. On this date last year removed more than this season, although only slightly – 5871,4 and 5837,1 thousand, respectively, or by 34.3 thousand ha.

The greatest way the pace of the harvest is lost in the Northern regions. In Akmola region on 9 September this year, the rate of harvest exceeds last year’s in two and more times, but on September 13 we see the backlog by 14%. In Kostanay and North Kazakhstan regions, a similar situation. In Kostanay region the rate of harvest with growth of September 9 fell by 13 September of the previous year by 22.4%, while in North Kazakhstan region – 14.5%.

Observed decline of the harvest the previous year and in other areas. In West Kazakhstan and Turkestan region. In other grain producing regions, the rate of harvesting of grain crops was higher in different proportions.

By 14 September among the three regions of the grain belt level threshing harvesting areas in North Kazakhstan region are still lagging. But the higher productivity per hectare region among these regions received the largest volume of grain – 1140 thousand tons. Slightly less than obtained in Akmola region – 1121,6 tons with a yield of 10.4 quintals per hectare, and in the Kostanay – less than 1 million tons 928,8 thousand tons with an average yield of 5.5 quintals per hectare.

Kazakhstan on 14 September, according to the regional departments of agriculture removed 6205,6 thousand ha, or 40.8% of harvesting areas, and produced 7097,0 thousand tons with an average yield of 11.4 t/ha. For September 18 in four days farmers have moved to clean another 2164,1 thousand hectares was threshed 8369,7 thousand hectares or 55% of the grain area. Harvested 9293 thousand tons of grain. The average yield decreased to 11.1 kg/ha, and the rates of harvest are still behind last year’s level. In the Turkestan region, it has already finished, and in Kyzylorda oblast mowed only 39,1% of the area. The highest amount of threshing of grain in Akmola region – 1819,9 thousand tons, and the best yield in Kyzylorda region – 42,1 kg/ha. in five regions the yields are above average and the rest below this level.

The risks that the cleaning will be delayed compared to last year, remain high, but there is still time, but increased in recent years, the productivity and skill of the operators suggested that it was not yet so critical.

Dynamics of grain stocks

In August to September 1, as a result of the widespread harvesting campaign, grain stocks began to be replenished with new crop grain in much larger volumes than in July. Recall that in July the dynamics of the grain balance of Kazakhstan began to unfold in a positive direction in view of the receipt of new grain, but so far the decrease that month exceeded the new income. For some crops, for example, for corn and barley, grain was even increased, and the largest expenses were for food wheat. The volume of feed grain increased, including due to its relatively low use in the summer.

Separately by region, most of the grain was added in the North Kazakhstan region, more than in the other two regions of the grain belt combined – in the Akmola and Kostanai regions.

In other grain-sowing areas, the level of grain input is much lower. In three other regions, grain stocks increased within more than 100 thousand tons. This is Almaty – by 149771 tons, Zhambyl – by 128826 tons and East Kazakhstan – by 115933 tons. But grain stocks did not increase in all areas. In three regions they decreased – in Atyrau, Kyzylorda regions and the city of republican subordination to Shymkent.

Grain stocks at the beginning of the year were at the level of 14465559 tons and decreased during the month by 1328793 tons, or by 8.4%. As of February 1 of this year, 11,867,608 tons of grain were recorded in Kazakhstan, while stocks decreased by 2,597,951 tons, or 18%. By March 1, grain stocks amounted to 10,277,759 tons and decreased in February by 1,589,849 tons, or by 13.4%. As of April 1, the amount of grain decreased to 9234499, by 1043260 tons, or by 10.2%. As of May 1, statistics took into account 7840581 in the republic with a decrease of 1393918 tons, or 15.1%.

By June 1, grain stocks decreased by another 2546117 tons to 5294464 tons or 32.5%. By the beginning of the new season in Kazakhstan, 3991767 tons were recorded with a decrease of 1302697 tons or 24.6%. In July, grain stocks in Kazakhstan decreased from 3991767 to 3468869 tons, by 522898 tons or 13.1%. In August, the volume of grain increased from 3468869 to 5106469.5 tons, by 1,637,600.5 tons, or 47.2%.

In August, in the regions of the grain belt, grain volumes increased the most, but most of all in the North Kazakhstan region – by 581845 tons from 888293 to 1470138 tons, or 65.5%, in the Akmola region the amount of grain increased by 246174 tons, from 1028189 to 1274363 tons, and in the Kostanay region – to 226075 tons, from 552474 to 778549 tons. The share of grain in three regions in the total republican reserves has changed. In the Akmola region it decreased to 25%, in the Kostanai region – to 15.2%, but in the North Kazakhstan region it increased to 28.8%.

A total of three areas of grain increased by 1054094 tons of grain, from 2468956 to 3523050 tons, or 43.4%. The grain share in these areas was 69%. As of July 1, 1127866 tons of grain were stored in farms and farms in the North Kazakhstan region, 523256 tons in the Kostanai region and 625226 tons in Akmola.

Dynamics of the grain balance in Kazakhstan from August 1 to September 1 by region, in tons

	Total for August 1	Total for September 1	August to July + –	New grain was harvested for September 2, thousand tons
All Kazakhstan	3 468 869	5 106 469,5	_1637600,5	5483,8
Akmola	1 028 189	1 274 363,0	246174	1010,5
Aktobe	58 237	175 928,0	59454	64,0
Almaty	78 867	228 638,0	149771	643,2
Atyrau	319	204,0	-115
West Kazakhstan	62 135	151 061,0	88926	169,9
Zhambyl	81 622	210 448,0	128826	763,2
Karaganda	169 088	209 950,5	40862,5	229,7
Kostanay	552 474	778 549,0	226075	621,3
Kyzylorda	60 357	39 644,0	-20713	14,7
Mangistau	х	1 410,0	1 410,0
Pavlodar	94 553	119 030,0	24477	238,6
North Kazakhstan	888 293	1 470 138,0	581845	898,2
Turkestan	86 109	102 350,0	16241	468,2
East Kazakhstan	196 278	312 211,0	115933	362,3
Nur Sultan	42 856
Almaty	х	412,0
Shymkent	68 894	32 133,0	-36761

In the regions of the grain belt in July, grain volumes decreased to varying degrees in absolute and relative terms. Once again, the largest amount of grain left the Akmola region 267,403 tons, from 1295592 to 1028189 tons, or 20.6%. 173481 tons from Kostanay region, from 725955 to 552474 tons, or 23.9%, and from the North Kazakhstan region 166765 tons, from 1015058 to 888293 tons, or 12.5%. The share of grain in general in three regions in the republican stocks decreased significantly. In the Akmola region up to 29.6%, in Kostanay up to 15.9%, but in the North Kazakhstan region it increased slightly – up to 25.6%.

In total, 607649 tons of grain went down from the regions of the grain belt, from 3036605 to 2468956 tons, or 19%. The share of grain in these areas was 71.1%. As of July 1, 36378 tons of grain were stored in farms and farms in the North Kazakhstan region, 73485 tons in the Kostanay region and 53,064 tons in Akmola.

Expert forecasts

In the September USDA Agricultural Service report for Kazakhstan in the 2019-20 season, wheat production in relation to the last August forecast was reduced from 13 to 11.5 million tons. This is the lowest production rate of this grain in six years. In the last 2019-20 season, production amounted to 13.947 million tons. Wheat export from Kazakhstan was reduced from 6.5 to 5.2 million tons. Last season, according to this expert group, wheat exports were 8.3 million tons.

For the three major grain regions of Kazakhstan, production forecasts can be made tentatively so far. If the average yield is maintained at the current level, the North Kazakhstan region will be able to reach a total yield of more than 4 million tons of grain, the Akmola region can get more than 4.5 million tons, and the Kostanay region may reach 2 million tons.

Currently, the following domestic prices:

At the moment, in the capital of the republic, Astana, grade 3 wheat is sold at 74,100 tenge per ton. Flour of the 1st grade in the capital is sold at 98900 tenge per ton, premium grade – at 103400 tenge per ton. The second grade of flour in the markets costs 94,400 tenge per ton.

In the Akmola region, a ton of class 3 wheat can be sold at 71,700 tenge, and wheat above 27% gluten – for 76,200 tenge per ton, barley of the 2nd class costs 50,000 tenge per ton. The highest grade of flour is currently sold at 102500 tenge, flour of the 1st and 2nd grades is offered at 98000 tenge and 91500 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region, 3 classes of wheat are sold at 70,800 tenge, wheat above 27% gluten – for 77300 tenge. Barley in North-Kazakhstan region is currently sold at 50,000 tenge per ton. North-Kazakhstan residents sell premium flour at 100,500 tenge per ton, and 1st grade – at 96,000 tenge per ton. Flour of the 2nd grade goes to 91500 tenge per ton.

In the Kostanay region, the price of wheat of the 3rd class reached 72300 tenge per ton, wheat above 27% gluten costs 77800 tenge. Barley 2 classes Kostanay farmers offer 50300 tenge per ton. The market value of flour of all varieties: the highest – at 101500 tenge, the first grade in the region is traded at 97000 tenge. Flour of the 2nd grade in the Kostanay region costs 92500 tenge per ton.

In Pavlodar region, a ton of wheat of 3 classes is sold for 74,700 tenge, barley – at 50,800 tenge per ton. Flour prices in the Pavlodar region were as follows: top grade – 102300 tenge per ton, 1 grade – 97800 tenge per ton, 2 grade – 93,300 tenge per ton.

In the Karaganda region, a ton of class 3 wheat costs 74,700 tenge, wheat above 27% gluten – 79,000 tenge per ton. Barley – 50100 tenge per ton. The highest grade of flour is traded at 103,500 tenge per ton, flour of the 1st and 2nd grades is sold at 99,000 tenge and 94500 tenge per ton.

Grade 3 wheat in the East Kazakhstan region is sold at 72,300 tenge per ton, barley – 53,100 tenge per ton. Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades in East Kazakhstan is sold at 102600, 98100 and 964600 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the West Kazakhstan region, the price of wheat of 3 classes is at the level of 74,400 tenge per ton. Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades in WKO is sold at 104200, 100700, 96200 tenge respectively.

At present, in the Almaty region, wheat of 3 classes is offered at 73,700 tenge per ton. Barley – at 51500 tenge per ton. Top grade flour costs about 103200 tenge per ton, 1 grade – 98700 tenge per ton. Flour of the 2nd grade is sold at 94200 tenge per ton.

Grade 3 wheat in the Zhambyl region is currently sold at 73,200 tenge per ton, and barley of the second class at 52,600 tenge per ton. Top grade flour in the region is sold at 104100 tenge, 1 grade is traded in the region of 99600 tenge, 2 grade – 95100 tenge per ton.

In the South Kazakhstan region, class 3 wheat is sold at 73400 tenge per ton, and barley – 52,300 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade in South Kazakhstan is currently fixing at 104100, 99600 and 95100 tenge per ton.

In the Aktobe region, wheat of the 3rd class costs 75,500, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades is sold at 105,500, 101,000 and 96,500 tenge per ton.

In the Kyzylorda region, wheat of the 3-rd class costs 74,900 tenge per ton. Flour of the highest, 1-st and 2nd grades are sold at 103,700, 99,200 and 95,700 tenge per ton.

In the southern capital, Almaty, grade 3 wheat is sold at 74,700 tenge per ton. The highest grade of flour in Almaty costs 104600 tenge per ton, the 1st and 2nd grade leaves the markets for 100100 and 94600 tenge per ton, respectively.

Grade 3 wheat with a gluten content of 23% on DAP conditions from Art. Lugovaya (Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan) is sold (hereinafter dollars per ton) at $ 213-216, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 231-234, barley – 158-161, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs 288-293, 264-269, 239-244 dollars per ton.

Grade 3 wheat from elevators of the South Ural Railway is currently sold at $ 194-197, wheat above 27% gluten – $ 211-214, barley – for $ 141-144, flour, 1st, 2nd and 2nd grades – at $ 278 -283, $ 254-259 and $ 229-234, respectively.

On Art. Sary-Agash (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan, DAP) 3 class wheat costs $ 216-219, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 236-239, barley – 153-156, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs 290- 295, 266-271 and 242-247 dollars per ton.

At the Tobol station (DAP), the 3rd class of wheat costs $ 207-210, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 227-230, barley – 145-148, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs 288-293, 260- 265 and 237-242 dollars per ton.

On Art. Hairaton (Uzbekistan-Afghanistan, CPT) the price for wheat of the 3rd class is $ 283-286, for wheat with gluten 27-30% – 301-306, barley – 226-229, flour of the first, 1st and 2nd grade – 348 -353, 336-341 and 301-306 dollars per ton.

In the port of Aktau, on FOB terms, wheat is sold at $ 228-231 with gluten above 27% – $ 245-248, barley – $ 173-176. Premium, first and second grade flour can be bought for $ 306-311, $ 281-286 and $ 258-263 per ton.

Reference: 1 dollar = 385 tg, 1 euro = 424 tg, 1 ruble = 6 tg.

Alimbek Gabitov