Grain export prices of April 2, 2020

A summary table of prices for grain crops and flour in tenge per ton in Kazakhstan as of April 2, 2020, incl.  VAT 12%

Name of the region	wheat, grade 3, with gluten		wheat, grade 4	wheat, grade 5	barley	Flour
	23-24%	27-30%				premium	1 grade	2 grade
Akmola	78500	83900	64700	57100	53500	138500	122500	103800
Aktobe	81900	—	68900	61300	55400	142000	126000	109200
Almaty	80000	—	66200	58600	55800	140200	124200	107500
East Kazakhstan	78800	—	65900	57800	55100	139000	123000	107300
Zhambyl	79600	—	66000	58400	56800	141000	125000	108300
West Kazakhstan	79400	—	66200	58600	—	140700	125700	109000
Karaganda	80700	85900	67900	60300	54000	139500	123500	106800
Kyzylorda	81400	—	67600	61300	—	140700	124700	109000
Kostanay	79100	84600	65300	57700	54000	137500	121500	104800
Pavlodar	79300	—	66500	57900	53900	138600	122600	105900
North Kazakhstan	77800	85200	64000	56200	53500	136500	120500	103800
Turkestan	79700	85700	66100	58500	56000	141100	125100	108400
city ​​Nur Sultan	78300	84800	66000	57700	—	139400	123400	106700
Almaty city	81100	—	67600	60000	—	141600	125600	107900

Export prices for grain crops and flour in dollars per ton, incl.  VAT 0% (ex-elevator) as of 02.04.2020

Station name	wheat, grade 3, with gluten		wheat, grade 4	wheat, grade 5	Barley	flour			Delivery conditions
	23-24%	27-30%	—		2 grade	premium	1 grade	2 grade
	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale
Petropavlovsk station (South Ural Railway)	229-232	256-259	219-222	—	149-152	322-328	288-294	263-269	DAP
station Sary-agash	248-251	275-278	238-241	—	168-171	341-347	307-314	282-288	DAP
Lugovaya station	244-249	271-274	234-237	—	164-167	338-344	303-309	278-284	DAP
Tobol station	238-241	265-268	228-231	—	158-161	331-337	297-303	272-278	DAP
port of Aktau	258-261	285-288	248-251	—	178-181	351-357	317-323	292-298	FOB
Bekabad station	272-275	299-302	262-265	—	192-195	365-371	331-337	306-312	СРТ
Hairaton Station	302-305	328-331	292-295	—	222-225	395-401	361-366	336-342	СРТ
Turgundi station	299-303	326-329	289-292	—	225-229	392-398	358-364	333-339	СРТ
station Sarahs	—	—	—	—	230-234	—	—	—	—

Grain reserves in Kazakhstan will preserve food stability

The government considered it inappropriate to maintain a ban on the export of flour.  As a result of the government’s conference call on March 30, it was decided to cancel the ban on shipment of Kazakh flour abroad on March 22.  It was previously introduced before April 15th.  The reason for this was both the appeal of the processors, noting the danger of a ban on the stability of the industry, and the substantial grain reserves so far.  But, in order not to completely lose control over the volume of wheat exported, a system of monthly quotas has been introduced for the export of food wheat.  The restrictions will apply from April 1 to August 31 for soft wheat grades 3 and 4.  Durum wheat and barley they will not be affected – their export is allowed in the same manner.  The government will also establish the mandatory sales volume of food grain by the Food Corporation on the domestic market at a fixed price for mills.  Such a decision can be considered indirect support of the domestic flour milling industry.

 Wheat in Kazakhstan, according to statistics, 5527670 tons without fodder and seed stock.  This will be enough to feed the country to a new harvest, an analyst at KazakhZerno.kz notes.  If we take into account all the food that has been preserved in retail chains and in stocks of the population that have not been taken into account earlier, Kazakhstan will feel good against other countries.  And even allow you to share the grain with other of them.

World market

During March, namely from February 28 to March 27, wheat quotes increased in the USA and Europe, but in different proportions.  In the United States, in March, wheat contracts returned the value of early February with a significant advance.  With great discount, French wheat won back the price.  But in Britain, the March growth in quotes could not cover the February losses.  American corn fell even deeper in March.  This month, soybeans joined the fall after rising the day before.  European rapeseed and corn have advanced in different directions.  Rapeseed declined, and corn rose.  In the foreign exchange market, the dollar rose to the pound most of the month and began to fall to it only at the end of the period.  As a result, over the month, the dollar rose to the pound from 0.7768 pounds per dollar on February 29 to 0.8218 pounds per dollar on March 28.  The trajectory of the dollar against the euro was not so straightforward.  At the beginning of the month, it was decreasing to this currency, then rising, and by the end of the month, it collapsed again.  As a result, the dollar is growing, but to a lesser extent than the pound.

Expert Forecasts

In March, USDA for the 2019-20 season has raised the global forecast for wheat production with 763,951 to 764,493 million tons, the forecast of consumption increased from 754,191 to 754,926 million tonnes, but ending stocks season forecast reduced from 288,032 to 287,138 million tons. The increased volume of world exports of wheat 183,306 to 184,106 million tons.

The international grains Council (IGC) in a report dated March 26 for 2019-20 season increased the forecast of grain production and ending stocks and trade. Forecast consumption is reduced, and the forecast of world trade left is on the same level. Forecast of production increased by 3 million tons from 2172 to 2175 million tonnes. But the consumption forecast reduced 1 million tons to 2193 2192 million tonnes. The balance of production and consumption remains negative 17 million tons. Forecast of the world grain trade has not changed — 379 million tons. The forecast of ending stocks of grain increased by 4 million tonnes from 604 to 608 million tonnes. The final remains of grain in the 2019-20 season at 17 million tons less than last year. Perhaps elevated projections of grain production and ending stocks will be an additional incentive of price reductions for cereals.

Separately for wheat the IGC left the previous forecast for all indicators. In February, the IGC raised its forecast for production by 2 million tons from 761 to 763 million tons, has lowered the forecast of consumption of 1 million tons from 754 to 753 million tons, increased its forecasts for trade by 1 million tons from 175 to 176 million tons. Also, as for grain, increased wheat ending stocks season, only 3 million tons from 272 to 275 million tons. This is the highest forecast balances for the last four years.

For the positive corn production and ending stocks. Forecast production is raised 4 million tons from 1112 to 1116 million tons, forecast consumption reduced by 1 million tons from 1151 to 1150 million tons, the forecast for trade has been reduced by 1 million tons from 169 to 168 million tons and the final balances increased by 5 million tons from 284 to 289 million tons. The final residues of maize in the 2019-20 season, in contrast to wheat, the lowest in four years and lower than last year’s 34 million tons.

Rice, in March, the IGC report, as in February, nothing has changed. In the January report forecasts for rice, its production declined 1 million tons from 500 to 499 million tons, the forecast of consumption has not changed — 495 million tons, the forecast ending balances fell by 3 million tons from 180 to 177 million tons. The level of trade fell by 1 million tons from 45 to 44 million tons.

In March, the international grains Council presented the forecast balances for the next 2020-21 season. In General, the grain it stands out optimism and higher. In addition to ending stocks. In 2020-21 season, grain production will total 2223 million tonnes.Consumption will take 2226 million tons.  Trade will increase to 385 million tons, but final stocks will decrease to 605 million tons relative to the current season.

 For wheat, these indicators of the next season exceed the level of the current season in all sections.  768 million tons of wheat will be produced, and 760 million tons spent on consumption.  Trade will increase to 180 million tons, and ending stocks to 283 million tons.

 Corn is also almost universal rise, except for forecasts of finite stocks.  With a production of 1,157 million tons, 1,157 million tons will be spent on corn.  In total, 170 million tons of corn will be sold and bought during the season, and at the end of the next season 274 million tons of corn will remain.

 IGC also sets higher levels for rice in the 2020-21 season.  Production will be at the level of 509 million tons, consumption will be 501 million tons, trade 45 million tons, and final stocks – 185 million tons.  

Dynamics of the derivatives market of wheat, corn and soybeans in March

Wheat prices in the U.S. for the week from 28 February to 27 March continued to decline, approaching the level of $ 5 per bushel. French wheat contracts were down for American quotes. Only British wheat was moving against the General trend and rose by half of one percent. American corn raised position, and soy, are on the contrary reduced. In the past week, the dollar rose against the Euro just one day, all other days fall into the high trajectory. The pound to dollar initially rose, but then collapsed with a negative final result. European quotes was a result of the additional cost in the American denomination.

Wheat prices in the United States during the period from 6 to 13 March down again. Now they came to the value of $ 5 per bushel down even closer – very close. But a further decrease of French wheat contracts, in the proportion of more than three percent. Against this background, the remarkable stability shows British wheat. For a week she has improved, but very slightly. U.S. corn fell more sharply than her compatriot wheat. But especially deeply failed American soy. In the currency market at the end of last week, the degree of increase of the dollar against the pound and Euro has exceeded all averages and eventually grew to Euro less, and the pound to a greater extent.

During the week from 13 to 20 March wheat prices on both continents got an unprecedented growth. Affected prolonged fall before and last week contracts were actively played cost. The growth of wheat contracts exceeded the United States and Britain to six percent, and in France, nine. An additional incentive to the growth of European quotations gave the growing dollar. However, the U.S. corn dropped for the week, while soybeans rose. In the foreign exchange market the European currency for a week has fallen against the dollar. As a result, the value of European quotations American denominations have declined dramatically.

Week from 20 to 27 March, as the previous period have been lifting for the wheat price in the United States and Europe. However, the dynamics of growth decreased significantly, especially of British and French wheat. Wheat contracts in the United States increased the most – by almost six percent. This time, the U.S. corn and soybean presented a United front. Both cultures increased. But in the currency market last week, everything changed. Dollar after single-digit growth, has gone down against the Euro and the pound and by the end of the period lost significant positions. European quotations have increased value in the American value.

In March, the equivalent of a dollar in London wheat quotations have risen on 2,2%, in Paris by 3.5% and in Chicago by 8.8%. Corn in the US fell 6%, and soybeans by 1.2%. In the denomination of Euro rape in Paris fell by 6.5%, and corn rose 1.4%.

Dynamics of quotations of wheat, corn and soybeans on world exchanges in March (in dollars per ton)

	28.02	06.03	13.03	20.03	27.03	28.02-27.03 + —	28.02-27.03 %
Wheat
SWOT Chicago	192,9	189,9	185,9	198,1	209,9	17,0	108,8
LIFFE London	189	191,2	185,8	185,5	193,2	4,2	102,2
MATIF Paris	207,3	206,3	197,6	205,5	214,5	14,2	103,5
Corn SWOT	144,7	147,8	143,7	135	136	-8,7	94,0
Soya SWOT	328	327,8	311,8	309,8	323,9	-4,1	98,8

Rapeseed and maize quotes on the MATIF exchange in February (in euros per ton)

	28.02	06.03	13.03	20.03	27.03	28.02-27.03 + —	28.02-27.03 %
Rapeseed, MATIF	380	377,75	352,5	349,75	355,25	-24,75	93,5
maize, MATIF	165,5	166,75	165	168,5	167,75	2,25	101,4

February

In February, wheat quotes on both continents significantly weakened their position.  The volatility of wheat contracts in the United States was the highest.  The last week of the month lowered American wheat by almost five percent.  This, in the end, determined its significant negative result for the month.  European wheat quotes during the month either rose or decreased, but with the same negative monthly result.  Corn in the US and France declined in different proportions.  European rape fell.  Only soybean increased by more than two percent.  In the foreign exchange market, the dollar against the pound rose during the month, although its way up was not smooth.  There have been failures.  It rose from 0.761 pounds per dollar on February 1, it rose to 0.7768 pounds per dollar on February 29.  The dollar has a different dynamics against the euro.  He zealously rose to the euro twenty days of February, but then over the last ten days of the month he lost almost all his gains.

 In February, the dollar equivalent in London, wheat quotes fell by 3.7%, in Paris fell by 1.6% and in Chicago by 5.2%.  Corn in the US fell 3.4%, while soybeans rose 2.3%.  In Euro denomination, rapeseed in Paris fell by 3.1% and corn by 1.8%.

Cash FOB agricultural market in March

For the first week of March, wheat prices in the market FOB went in different directions. U.S. wheat SRW and HRW 11% fell almost equally, and HRS wheat 14%, on the contrary, moved up. Corn from the US this week gained more than five dollars per ton. French and Russian crops, namely wheat and barley received a completely opposite trend. French wheat and barley has increased, and the Russian grain almost to the same extent fell. Thus, grain – competitors lowered between prices differences nearly zero. Now French wheat is lower for just one dollar, and Russian barley is below the French by the same amount. Russian corn is slightly increased. In the market of cash soybeans also opposite dynamics. Soybeans from the United States strengthened, and the Argentine dropped significantly.

The falling forward market crops with 6 to 13 March inevitably pulled a cash market prices FOB. Week for wheat, corn, barley and soybeans proved to be a failure. Only barley was resistant to price troubles and remained at the same level. American wheat, HRW 11% and decreased from six to nine dollars per ton. Corn from the U.S. has lost over five dollars. French wheat fell sharply Russian. Decreased slightly less than the French barley. Now wheat and barley from France became a more preferred price than Russian crops. Russian corn dropped three dollars. Soybean in USA and Argentina decreased in equal measure. Soybeans from Argentina cheaper than the us.

From 13 to 20 March, the us wheat FOB market rose on all types of wheat by more than ten dollars after increase of quotations on the stock exchange. The greatest way moved up wheat, HRW 11%. SRW wheat and high protein HRS wheat 14% increase in smaller and almost equal measure. Approximately on the same level fall from French wheat. Least of all rose Russian wheat, which is not surprising, as increasing the ruble dollar pulls down Russian wheat in its value. Now wheat from Russia has the most attractive price. Even more controversial is the situation of the Russian and French barley. The first fell and the second got up. The price gap between them in favor of Russia rose to nine dollars. Corn has fallen in the USA to a greater extent and Russia to a lesser. On the soybean, market a General increase in the US and in Argentina.

In the end from 28 February to 20 March SRW wheat on FOB basis from ports in the United States increased by $ 1 from 239 to 240 dollars per ton. HRW wheat with protein content of 11% rose to $ 5 from 222 to 227 dollars per ton. HRS high protein wheat grew $ 5 from $ 256 to $ 261 per ton.  Corn in US ports dropped by $ 7 from $ 172 to $ 165 per ton.

 From February 28 to March 20, French wheat in the port of Rouen rose by $ 4 from $ 209 to $ 213 per ton.  Barley from France increased by $ 7 from $ 180 to $ 187 per ton.  Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports fell by $ 5 from $ 215 to $ 210 per ton.  Russian barley based on the Black Sea fell by $ 7 from $ 185 to $ 178 per ton.  Corn from Russia sank $ 5 from $ 177 to $ 172 per ton.

 Soybeans from the USA and Argentina on the FOB basis fell to varying degrees, in the US by $ 5 from 349 to $ 344 per ton, and in Argentina, $ 24 from 342 to $ 318 per ton.

Price dynamics of the FOB cash market from February 28 to March 20 for crops in the United States, France, Russia and Argentina in dollars per ton

Culture	Country	28.02	06.03	13.03	20.03	28.02-20.03 + —
Wheat SRW	USA	239	235	228	240	1
Wheat HRW 11%	USA	222	219	210	227	5
Wheat HRS 14%	USA	256	257	251	261	5
Wheat	France	209	212	202	213	4
Wheat	Russia	215	213	207	210	-5
Barley	France	180	183	175	187	7
Barley	Russia	185	182	182	178	-7
Corn	USA	172	178	172	165	-7
Corn	Russia	177	178	175	172	-5
Soybean	USA	349	350	335	344	-5
Soybean	Argentina	342	330	315	318	-24

Russia

The grain market of Russia in March, over its three weeks, significantly increased to varying degrees in certain types of grain.  One of the main reasons for this dynamics is the collapse of the ruble.  The depreciation always leads to an increase in the price competitiveness of exported goods, which include fully their crops and their derivatives and food products.  So it happened now.  Manufacturers are trying to raise prices for these products in order to return or reduce the new price imbalance that has arisen.  The wheat segment rose the most, and feed wheat became the growth leader within the segment.  Wheat of the 4th grade increased slightly weaker, and in the least dynamics wheat of the 3rd grade grew.  Barley increased by more than three and a half hundred rubles per ton, and corn did not receive even two hundred rubles per ton.  The most stable was food rye.  Compared to other cultures, it rose weakly, but lost the most in the dollar equivalent.  How it all happened for three weeks.

News from the fields

Experts in Russia note the condition of winter crops higher than last year.  According to the Ministry of Agriculture, this year 18.3 million hectares are sown with winter crops, which is 600 thousand hectares more than a year earlier.  Earlier, the agency reported that 94.5% of the crops are in good and satisfactory condition.  This is above the level of 2019 and long-term average values.  Last week, Minister of Agriculture Dmitry Patrushev said that more than 7 million hectares of winter crops had already been fed, but final conclusions about their condition can only be made after the snow has completely melted.

 Recently, winter crops in Russia have been increasing since their productivity is higher and they are more resistant to diseases and adverse weather conditions.  Winter wheat accounts for most of the total grain harvest.  According to the Federal State Statistics Service, in 2019 the harvest of winter wheat amounted to 53.4 million tons, spring – 21.1 million tons.

Expert Forecasts

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, the gross grain harvest this year will be 125.3 million tons compared to 121.1 million tons in the past.  The analytical center SovEkon estimates the potential gross grain harvest this year at 129.8 million tons, including 84.4 million tons of wheat.  “The main risk for the new crop that we see at the current stage is a moisture deficit in the south, which we will closely monitor,” the center’s analysts say.

 In March, the Rusagrotrans Analytical Center raised its forecast for gross grain harvest by 1.3 million tons to 127.5 million tons, including 81.3 million tons of wheat with an increase of 1 million tons.  The analytical company ProZerno estimates the potential of gross harvest at the level of 128.2 million tons, including 79 million tons of wheat.  The previous forecast was 4.2 million tons less, an adjustment was made because it rained in the main grain-producing regions.  The Institute of Agricultural Market Studies still maintains a forecast of gross grain harvest at the level of 126.7 million tons, including 79.5 million tons of wheat.

Price situation in March

From 28 February to 6 March, the market of grain crops in Russia was relatively stable, and the collapse of the Russian ruble still remained a few days. Some positions, such as 3rd grade wheat and food rye, has not changed at all. As for rye, it’s grown so much in the past years, taking the leadership position in the price ranking of the main grain crops in Russia. Wheat grade 4 rose slightly, and her fodder component in more dynamics. Barley and corn fell together, but to different degrees. However, it’s a dollar a week still increased against the ruble since the 66,9909 to 67,5175 of the ruble to the dollar, which led to the decline of the Russian grain crops in the American equivalent in the range of 1-2 dollars per ton.

The fall of the ruble on 6 and 13 March could not fail to affect the domestic grain market of Russia. Foreign exchange, commodity and stock markets shuddered when he received the news that Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to reduce oil production within the OPEC cartel+. This led to a momentary decrease in the cost of oil prices and shares of many companies. A side effect of this was the fall of the ruble. In the so-called “black Monday”, which was held on 9 March, fell sharply the ruble against the dollar by almost 10%.

Crops instantly fell in dollar terms. The owners of the grain adequately responded to these events and prices began to be adjusted upwards in ruble denomination for the establishment of the previous balance. But, previous balance immediately not easy to achieve, if at all possible. Therefore, the greatest way rose culture for which there is export demand. It’s wheat, to a lesser extent barley. Food rye and maize responded to the fall of the ruble is weaker. Assessment of grain in the U.S. denomination have decreased by an average of ten and more dollars, depending on the grain.

Prices on the principal grain crops in Russia from 13 to 20 March was formed in the same direction as the week before. The value of crops rose in rubles, but fell in terms of the dollar, as the ruble continued to fall to that currency. In addition last week on the growth of the grain market was influenced by the high demand for cereals. As a result, the Rosselkhoznadzor imposed from March 20 a temporary ban on the export of cereals for a period of 10 days and until further notice. Factor in the global pandemic, and as a consequence the restriction of movement and trade also affected the market is not the best way. The dollar this week rose against the ruble since of 73.2 to 78 rubles to the dollar.

From 28 February to 20 March in Russia wheat grade 3 increased by 495 rubles per ton, or 3.8%, wheat of grade 4 for 550 rubles per ton or 4.5%, feed wheat at 615 rubles per ton, or 5.2%. Food rye rose by 65 rubles per ton or 0.4%, barley-355 rubles per ton or 3.5% and corn on 175 rubles per ton or 1.7%. Peas grown on 130 roubles per ton or 1%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from February 28 to March 20, rubles / ton based on EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	28.02	06.03	13.03	20.03	28.02-20.03 + —	28.02-20.03 %
Wheat, Grade 3 (gluten 23%)	13 080	13 080	13 360	13 575	495	103,8
Wheat, Grade 4	12 305	12 310	12 580	12 855	550	104,5
Food rye	15 015	15 015	15 060	15 080	65	100,4
Feed wheat	11 780	11 825	12 095	12 395	615	105,2
Feed barley	10 170	10 125	10 315	10 525	355	103,5
Feed corn	10 555	10 525	10 590	10 730	175	101,7
Peas	13 435	13 260	13 515	13 565	130	101,0

From February 28 to March 20, in the American equivalent, grade 3 wheat decreased by $ 21.4 per ton or 11%, grade 4 wheat by $ 19 per ton or 10.3%, feed wheat by $ 17 per ton or 9, 7%.  Food rye fell by $ 30.9 per ton or 13.8%, barley by $ 16.9 per ton or 11.3%, and corn by $ 20.1 per ton or 12.8%.  Peas fell by $ 26.7 per ton, or 13.3%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from February 28 to March 20, dollars / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	28.02	06.03	13.03	20.03	28.02-20.03 + —	28.02-20.03 %
Wheat, Grade 3 (gluten 23%)	$195,3	$193,7	$182,5	$173,9	-21,4	89,0
Wheat, Grade 4	$183,7	$182,3	$171,9	$164,7	-19,0	89,7
Food rye	$224,1	$222,4	$205,8	$193,2	-30,9	86,2
Feed wheat	$175,8	$175,1	$165,3	$158,8	-17,0	90,3
Feed barley	$151,8	$150,0	$140,9	$134,9	-16,9	88,7
Feed corn	$157,6	$155,9	$144,7	$137,5	-20,1	87,2
Peas	$200,5	$196,4	$184,7	$173,8	-26,7	86,7

The tables used information from the ProZerno agency.

In February, Russian grains increased in price, but almost all the growth came in the first half of the month. In the second part of the month, the dynamics of grain prices is almost reduced to zero marks. Despite the increase of the Russian grain crops during the month in the ruble denomination, the equivalent of international trade, that is in dollars, all the cultures decreased, and the dynamics of their prices was negative.

Russian crops have met the Feb new increase in the cost. During the first stage from 31 January to 14 February in the wheat segment is particularly strong moved up the wheat of 3 grade. To lower the growth of grade 4 wheat. Dynamics of feed wheat yields increase 3rd grade, but is ahead in the growth of grade 4. Food rye this time is part of the General course and remains the most expensive cereal. The relative increase in barley corresponds to the rate of increase of grade 4 wheat. But corn on the dynamics of the movement ahead of the rest of culture. Within two weeks, the ruble was walking to the dollar up and down, but the steps down were more significant and the dollar eventually rose to the ruble. In the result of dynamics of the Russian grain crops in rubles was higher than in dollars.

In the second half February 14-28th growth of Russian grain is noticeably faded, and for some items, prices have fallen In the wheat segment, the price dropped from the 3rd grade wheat, and the wheat grade 4 increased slightly. A greater increase in feed wheat, but it did not exceed even fifty rubles per ton. Other forage species the dynamics was different. Barley slightly decreased, and corn increased, but also not very far. Had this trend only food rye, which is in two weeks gained more than four hundred rubles. Despite the weak dynamics in rubles, in terms of the dollar for almost all crops fell by more than five percent. Dollar for the period has strengthened significantly against the ruble and lowered the value of Russian cereals. From 14 to 28 February, the ruble fell against the dollar with 63,6016 to 66,9909 rubles per dollar. Even food rye, which has grown in national currency, the dollar has lost value.

Cash Market FOB

For the first week of March on the market of the Russian FOB wheat at Black sea ports fell by $ 2 from 215 to 213 dollars per ton. Russian barley based on the Black sea decreased by $ 3 from 185 to 182 dollars per ton. Corn from Russia increased by $ 1 from 177 to 178 USD per ton. French and Russian crops, namely wheat and barley received a completely opposite trend. French wheat and barley has increased, and the Russian grain almost to the same extent fell. Thus, grain – competitors lowered between a price difference nearly zero.

Market FOB from 6 to 13 March, the Russian wheat in Black sea ports fell to $ 6 from 213 to 207 dollars per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black sea has not changed, and earlier fell to $ 3 from 185 to 182 dollars per ton. Corn from Russia dropped to $ 3 from 178 to 175 dollars per ton.

Market FOB from 13 to 20 March, the Russian wheat at Black sea ports grew by $ 3 a 207 to $ 210 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black sea decreased by $ 4 from 182 to 178 USD per ton. Corn from Russia dropped to $ 3 from 175 to 172 USD per ton. Now wheat from Russia has the most attractive price. Even more controversial is the situation of the Russian and French barley. The first fell and the second got up. The price gap between them in favor of Russia rose to nine dollars. Corn in Russia fell.

In the end from 28 February to 20 March, the Russian wheat in Black sea ports fell by $ 5 from 215 to $ 210 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black sea decreased by $ 7 from 185 to 178 USD per ton. Corn from Russia dropped to $ 5 from 177 to 172 USD per ton.

Grain exports

According to FTS, export of grain in the current agricultural season as of March 23, 2020 amounted to 32.2 million tons, which is 13.2% lower than the same period last 2018 -19 season, when it was exported abroad, nearly 37 million tons of grain. In the context of individual crops sold as wheat 26.5 million tons, barley – 3 mln tones, corn – 2.4 mln tones.

Kazakhstan

Republic under siege coronavirus

Most of the problems that emerged in social and economic life of the country and around the world in March can be described in one word “coronavirus”. His appearance, and then subsequent pandemic broke the habitual way of life of the people, ruined their plans and many initiatives of enterprises, companies and entire industries. All of this can be multiplied by the collapse of the stock and commodity markets, including in the agricultural sector. Numerous restrictions on the movement of people with radical methods, the closure has led to a reduction in international trade. Moreover, countries have tried to err in these circumstances, and restricted the export of agricultural crops and food products.

Kazakhstan in the framework of state of emergency from March 22 until April 15, also imposed a ban on the export outside the country wheat flour, sunflower seeds and sunflower oil. But on 30 March it was decided to cancel March 22, the ban on shipments abroad of Kazakh flour, as mentioned above.

All these events have caused adverse economic effects. As almost always happens in such cases, many people have been panic and began to prepare for a long siege. In the consumer market has a high demand for food goods storage. As you know, increased demand creates shortages and price increases. Prices soared by almost all types of goods. This sector growth got vitamin products – vegetables and fruits. Almost everywhere has increased the ginger and lemons, which are famous for the curative and preventive properties. Have risen in price a simple potato and onion products for almost daily use. What happens next is difficult to predict. One can only hope for a favorable outcome from this situation.

But, can mess up everything, of course, private ambitions and aspirations. For some narrow clan interests may violate the interests of the state and society. For profit individual structure may be permitted by various exceptions and entered preferences for hotel companies and individuals. But, we believe that these violations will not come.

Expert Forecasts

Kazakhstan will reduce the export of wheat to 5.9 million tons in the current season. In the updated report of International Grains Council (IGC) dated 27 February, wheat production in Kazakhstan in 2019-20 MG is estimated at 11.5 million tons. A month earlier, analysts ‘ expectations were appropriate. Recall that in the 2018-19 season, the harvest amounted to 13.9 million tons. The company informed local farmers have collected from their fields 14.8 million tons of grain of the species.

Initial reserves of wheat in the country this year, according to figures at the end of February and is equal to 1.8 million tons. A year earlier the figure was higher at 1.1 million tons. In the previous report, the assessment was similar. Wheat production in Kazakhstan in this season decreased to 14.3 million tons against last year’s figure of 16.9 million tons.

Export the Outlook for wheat in the 2019-20 season in February was slightly reduced against the expectations of the previous reporting period, to 5.9 million tons. Last season the border was set at 2.8 million tons more. Imports of wheat in the country during the period under review could rise to 1 million tons. The previous season, the procurement volume was 10 times lower. In January, the forecast for imports was appropriate.

Consumption of wheat in Kazakhstan this year, according to the February data of the MRZ, a little reduced in comparison with the previous year to 6.3 million tons. The size of the finite reserves of wheat in the 2019-20 year, according to February data will increase to 2.1 million tons. We will remind, a year earlier, ending stocks of grain of the species in the country was 0.3 million tones lower.

Dynamics of prices

For the three months 2020 prices of grain and flour on the basis of EXW Akmola region has changed in different proportions, as food wheat 3 and 4 grades remained at the same level. Its average value has not changed. In the wheat segment rose only high-protein wheat for 400 tenge per ton with up to 83500 83900 tenge per ton or 0.5%. In contrast, feed wheat grade 5 decreased by 600 tenge per ton with up to 57100 57700 or 1%. The greatest way since the beginning of the year in the relative proportions rose barley – 1800 tenge per ton, with up to 51700 53500 KZT per ton, or 3.5%. In the high dynamics of the increased flour. The growth in higher quality flour, and the lowest at the second-grade flour (see table). 

Price dynamics in Kazakhstan on the EXW basis from December 2019 to April 2020

Type of goods	December 2019	April 2020	April to December + —	April to December %
wheat 27-30%	83500	83900	400	100,5
grade 3 wheat	78500	78500	0	100,0
4th grade wheat	64700	64700	0	100,0
5th grade wheat	57700	57100	-600	99,0
barley	51700	53500	1800	103,5
premium flour	134500	138500	4000	103,0
flour 1 grade	120000	122500	2500	102,0
flour 2 grade	103500	103800	300	100,3

Grain stocks

In February to March 1, grain volumes in Kazakhstan, according to statistics, fell to 9168971 tons.  Again, in February, as in the past, the grain decline is lower than this month a year earlier this time by 502977 tons.  In February 2019, the grain balance decreased by 1589849 tons, and in February 2020 only by 1086872 tons.  The decrease in grain loss this season for two consecutive months can speak only of two factors.  This decrease in this season’s grain consumption for domestic needs and for export and / or replenishment of the grain balance by import.  Most likely, both factors play a role here, but which one is more significant is difficult to determine.  Despite the lower grain costs, on March 1 this year is still less than last year.  As of March 1, 2019, Kazakhstan accounted for 10277759 tons of grain, and as of March 1, 2020, 9168971 tons – a decrease of 1108788 tons or 10.8%.  The combined effect of reducing consumption and imports gradually aligns the grain balance of this season with the level of grain stocks last year.

 By the beginning of 2020, on January 1, according to the Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 11773356 tons of grain were recorded in Kazakhstan, volumes decreased in December by 1398783 tons or 10.6%.  By February 1, grain in the republic became 10255843 tons and its volume decreased by 1517513 tons or 12.9%.  As of March 1, the amount of grain in Kazakhstan decreased to 9168971 tons, by 1086872 tons or 10.6%.

 In February, the volume of food grain in Kazakhstan’s reserves decreased by 798490 tons from 7194342 tons on February 1 to 6395852 tons on March 1, or 11.1%.  6095 tons were left from the seed stock of grain and it decreased from 1509824 to 1503729 tons or by 0.4%.  The amount of feed grain decreased by 282289 tons from 1551678 to 1269389 tons or by 18.2%.

Grain stocks in Kazakhstan on March 1, 2019

	On February 1	On March 1	March to February+ —	March to February, %
Total crops	10 255 843	9 168 971	-1086872	89,4
for food	7 194 342	6 395 852	-798490	88,9
for seeds	1 509 824	1 503 729	-6095	99,6
on fodder	1 551 678	1 269 389	-282289	81,8

In February, we reduced the volume of all major crops. By 1 March compared to the previous period, the greatest relative decrease was in rye and rice by more than twenty percent. A mixture of grains, buckwheat, barley, millet, oats has decreased in greater proportion than the average across the grain. The smallest relative decline for February in maize and wheat. Compared to the previous year by 1 March this year, less wheat 1094292 tons of rye at 2349 tons, oat 14838 tons, buckwheat, less than half on 31865 tons. On the contrary, this year on that date at the stocks of grain of Kazakhstan, more corn, rice, barley, millet and mixtures of cereals.

In the context of individual cultures, the decline in grain in February. Wheat volumes fell by 740765 tons 7894532 to 7153767 tons or 9.4%, corn on 8236 with 124318 to 116082 or 6.6%, rice 63971 with 283626 to 219655 or 22.6%.

The amount of barley in Kazakhstan decreased by 213643 with 1561009 to 1347366 or 13.7%, rye at 2609 from 10912 to 8303 or 24%, oat 18216 with 169640 to 151424 or 10.7%.

Stocks of buckwheat decreased by 5555 30002 with up to 24447, or 18.5%, of millet in 1774 with 14261 until 12487 or 12.4%, and the mixture of grains with at 7295 30954 38249 to or 19.1%.

The cost of grain for domestic consumption and exports were considerably reduced. Still, as in January, the largest grain donor remains in North Kazakhstan region. In two other areas of the grain belt grain costs are much lower. The cost of grain from 30 to 70 thousand tons in the four areas in four of 10 thousand tons and two of less. Enriched grain reserves in the Turkestan region and the city of Shymkent.

More than 30 thousand tons, in addition to areas of the grain belt of the Kazakhstan grain stocks declined in four regions. It is created for 64414 ton 278530 to 214116 tons, East Kazakhstan oblast – 55238 tons 578403 to 523165 tons, in Pavlodar oblast – 32606 tons 455593 to 422987 tons and Almaty oblast – 31863 ton 211461 to 179598 tons.

The largest grain regions of Kazakhstan decline in the grain, compared to the previous month decreased significantly. In February, the same as for the previous month the bulk of the cost of grain in North Kazakhstan region. From the North Kazakhstan region this month 331876 spent tons of grain, and stocks fell from 2518397 tons on February 1 to 2186521 tons on March 1 of Akmola region left 281657 tons of grain from 3226403 to 2944746 tons, and of Kostanay region 227055 tons 1927644 to 1700589 tons. In Akmola region the share of national grain rose to 32.1%, in Kostanay fell 18.5% and in the North-Kazakhstan region decreased to 23.8%.In all, in three regions of the grain belt, grain reserves decreased by 840588 tons from 7672444 to 6831856 tons, or 11.2%.  The share of grain in these areas was 74.4%.  As of January 1, 257,326 tons of grain were stored in farms and farms in the North Kazakhstan region.  In the Kostanay region, 431064 tons and in the Akmola region 288899 tons.

The dynamics of the grain balance in Kazakhstan from February 1 to March 1, 2020 by regions in tons

	On February 1	On March 1	Including in peasant and farm enterprises on March 1	March to February+ —
All Kazakhstan	10 255 843	9 168 971	1 511 835	-1086872
Akmola	3 226 403	2 944 746	288 899	-281657
Aktobe	215 901	192 882	50 179	-23019
Almaty	211 461	179 598	22 165	-31863
Atyrau	102	41	—	-61
West Kazakhstan	144 288	124 756	34 569	-19532
Zhambyl	45 894	41 470	22 562	-4424
Karaganda	508 067	485 353	129 806	-22714
Kostanay	1 927 644	1 700 589	431 064	-227055
Kyzylorda	278 530	214 116	60 064	-64414
Mangistau	942	х	—	942
Pavlodar	455 593	422 987	106 720	-32606
North Kazakhstan	2 518 397	2 186 521	257 326	-331876
Turkestan	33 131	45 062	4 890	11931
East Kazakhstan	578 403	523 165	102 103	-55238
Nur Sultan	48 237	38 161	—	-10076
Almaty	1 056	х	—	1 056
Shymkent	61 795	68 648	1 488	6853

Grain export

At the moment, the following domestic prices have developed:

Now in the capital of the Republic, Nur-Sultan, 3 grade wheat sold at 84800 tenge per ton. Flour of 1st grade in the capital sold at 123400 tenge per tonne, the highest grade — on 139400 tenge per ton. Second grade flour on the markets is 106700 tenge per ton.

In Akmola region a ton of wheat of 3 grade for sell 78500 tenge, and wheat up 27% of gluten — 83900 for tenge per ton, barley of 2 grade is 53500 KZT per ton. Flour is now being implemented at the 138500 tenge, the flour 1 and 2 varieties offer 122500 tenge and at 103800 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 grade is sold at 77800 tenge, wheat above 27% of gluten — 85200 for tenge. Barley SKO currently sell at 53500 KZT per ton. The flour people sell 136500 tenge per ton, and 1-St grade — by 120500 tenge per ton. Flour of the 2nd grade takes 103800 tenge per ton.

In Kostanai region the price of wheat of 3 grade reached the mark 79100 tenge per ton, wheat is higher than 27% of gluten is 84600 tenge. Barley 2 grade Kostanay agrarians propose to 54,000 tenge per ton. The market value of all types of flour: higher in tenge 137500, 1st grade in the region is trading at 121500 tenge. Flour of the 2nd grade in Kostanay region is 104800 tenge per ton.

In Pavlodar region a ton of wheat of 3 grade for sell 79300 tenge, barley — at 53900 tenge per ton. The prices of wheat in the Pavlodar region was as follows: high grade — 138600 tenge per ton, 1st grade — 122600 tenge per ton, 2nd grade — 105900 tenge per ton.

In Karaganda region a ton of wheat of 3 grade costs 80700 tenge, wheat above 27% of gluten – 85900 tenge per ton. Barley — 54000 tenge per ton. Flour is trading at 139500 tenge per ton, flour 1 and 2 grades sold at 123500 tenge and at 106800 tenge per ton.

3 grade wheat in the Eastern Kazakhstan region sell at 78800 tenge per ton, barley – 55100 tenge per ton. Flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades in Eastern Kazakhstan are sold at 139000, 123000 107300 and tenge per ton, respectively.

In West Kazakhstan region the price of wheat of 3 grade — level 79400 tenge per ton. Flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades in WKO sold at 140700, 125700, 109000 tenge, respectively.

Currently in Almaty region wheat of 3 grade is offered at 80000 tenge per ton. Barley — at 55800 tenge per ton. Flour costs about 140200 tenge per ton, 1st grade — 124200 tenge per ton. For 107500 tenge per ton sold flour of the 2nd grade.

Wheat 3 grade in Zhambyl region today has at 79600 tenge per ton, and barley the second year 56800 tenge per ton. The flour in the area sell at 141000 tenge, 1st grade traded at around 125000 tenge, 2nd grade — 108300 tenge per ton.

In the Turkestan region wheat of 3 grade is sold at 79700 tenge per ton, and barley — the 56,000 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of highest, 1st and 2nd grade at the moment is fixed at around 141100, 125100, and 108400 tenge per ton.

In Aktobe region wheat of 3 grade costs 81900, flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades sold at 142000, 126000 and 109200 tenge per ton.

In Kyzylorda region wheat of 3 grade costs 81400 tenge per ton. Flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades sold at 140700, 124700 and 109000 tenge per ton.

In the southern capital, Almaty, 3 grade wheat sold at 81100 tenge per ton. Flour to Almaty is 141600 tenge per ton, 1st and 2nd grade goes to the markets 125600 and 107900 tenge per ton, respectively.

Wheat 3 grade with gluten content of 23% based on DAP with St. Lugovaya (Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan) to implement the (hereinafter dollars per ton) at $244-249, wheat with gluten content of 27-30% —271-274, barley – 164-167, flour, 1st and 2nd grade is 338-344, 303-309, 278-284 dollars per ton.

3 grade wheat from the elevators of the South Ural railway currently sell for $229-232, wheat above 27% of gluten — $256-259, barley for $149-152, flour, 1-St and 2-nd grades — at $322-328, $288-294 and $263-269, respectively.

At the station Sary-Agash (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan, DAP) grade 3 wheat is worth $248-251, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 275-278, barley — 168 to 171, flour, 1st and 2nd grade is 341-347, 307-314, 282-288 dollars per ton.

On the station Tobol (DAP) grade 3 wheat is worth $238 and 241, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 265-268, barley, 158-161, flour, 1st and 2nd grade should 331-337, 297-303, 272-278 dollars per ton.

At the station Hairatan (Uzbekistan-Afghanistan CPT) the price of wheat of 3 grade is $302-305, wheat with gluten 27-30% — 328-331, barley — 292-295, flour, 1st and 2nd grade – 395-401, 361-366, 336-342 dollars per ton.

In the port of Aktau on FOB conditions wheat is sold at $258-261, with gluten content above 27% — $285-288, barley — $178-181. Flour highest, first and second grade can be bought for $351-357, $317-323 and $292-298 per ton.

Alimbek Gabitov