Mamytbekov acknowledges existence of grain attribution system in Kazakhstan

“No one is opening America up here. This is Polishinel ‘s secret, “wrote the former head of Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan on his Facebook page.

Ex-minister’s revelations

We remind that in November «» published a study that made it obvious that the reporting on grain harvest in Kazakhstan is regularly distorted. For the last ten years, year after year, officials have given out what they want as real, “adjusting” real volumes of namolot to their personal ambitions. As a result, the accumulated “virtual” volume of grain (which never existed in nature) by 2019 reached 35 million tons!

But we will return to the writing of Asylzhan Mamytbekov. What amount of attribution does he talk about? Oddly enough, he almost fully agrees with the calculations of the expert «»,” speaking about the figure of 20 – 25 million “invented” in ten years of grain. Perhaps this is the first time in the history of our agency that Asyljan Mamytbekov admitted that we caught him by the tail. And, at the end of his repentant spot, the ex-head of the Ministry of Agriculture suddenly sits on a wave of frankness and reports that the country is also credited with the volume of production of other agricultural products – milk, meat and everything else:

“Well to tell? Calculations are approximately correct. Checked “on diagonal” … It turns out that on average about 2.0-2.5 million tons of grain was assigned annually. Most likely, it is. The reasons are written above. But milk is also attributed (for the production of milk per capita we have overtaken Russia, Belarus, many countries of Eastern Europe and catch up with France and Germany) and meat and much more, “- reports Mamytbekov to the reader with such frankness.

In a white coat

At the same time, the analysis of statistical data showed the fact that the wave of attributes began in 2011 – at the time of the arrival of Asylzhan Mamytbekov as Minister of Agriculture of the country.

So, Asylzhan Mamytbekov devoted to “analysis” of publication in «» a number of many-word posts. In them, he acknowledged the existence of a system of attribution. But he tried to remove responsibility for its appearance by shifting to grass-roots lines of reporting. Including, not only local a, but also… farmers!

“How do we collect data on the area of sowing and the volume of production of a crop culture, and data on any other type of agricultural production (including livestock production) in our country? Do you think we have an army of civil servants – landowners and accounting officers with land circulars, with scales and other measuring instruments, and they walk all over the country measuring the area of crops, the resulting harvest, weighing tired milk, clogged carcasses and they “draw” the necessary figures?

No! These data are collected through statistical reporting by the producers themselves. Is there any influence of officials on them? Is there a home there? I think yes is. But it ‘s not the influence of the Ministry of Agriculture. At least that was not the case in my life and in the aftermath. Why? Because there are no motives for it! “- tried to assure his readers that he alone stands here in a white coat ex-minister. It is generally the style of Mamytbekov himself, and many other mountain leaders – all to fall on peasants. “The strong is always powerless to blame,” Krylov once made very clear in his fable.

Political points

Without going far from the topic, we will ask Asylzhan Sarybayevich: what are the motives of farmers themselves to “virtualize” reporting? Any district employee of the administration will tell you that the interest of peasants is the opposite – they rather lower the collection indicators to then quietly sell “left,” without papers, “excess grain.” They have no reason to overestimate the volume!

But officials – have it. And first of all, the Ministry of Agriculture itself. And what are the motives (the absence of which is so sharply declared by Mamytbekov) to everyone is obvious: in earning points in the eyes of the head of state. After all, the principle of the former head of the Ministry the Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan already mentioned by us has the opposite side – all merit to attribute to itself. I mean, no vegetables in the country? Farmers who do not introduce modern irrigation systems are to blame. But when the grains were established – it is a merit of the Ministry of Agriculture, which created conditions and provided state support.

And this principle in the case of Mamytbekov worked! Otherwise, how can one explain the fact that, year after year, he was criticized from all sides – both from the mouth of Yelbasy, who described the outcome of Asylzhan Sarybaevich’s activity with the biting phrase “The mountain gave birth to a mouse”, as well as the members of parliament. Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan was shaken by corruption scandals, right up to the arrest and conviction of Vice Minister Umiryaev – Mamytbekov always came out of the water dry. Maksut Baktibaev, the current “partner” of Mamytbekov, in the leadership of the Meat Union, also flew from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan (from the position of director of the department of livestock) on a corruption-related item – the chair was not shaken under Mamytbekov. And all because he could say to any criticism: but I ensured the production of grain in abundance.

And this manipulative move worked. The misfire occurred in 2016, when it became apparent that Mamytbekov had not fulfilled the indicator for the export of beef – and he immediately flew out from the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan. So, it is easy to assume that if Mamytbekov hadn’t had “indulgences” in the form of ascribed multimillion-dollar grain records, he would not have sat in his post for five years. Here’s the motive for “working” with the regions and twisting the hands of the district administration with the goal of “ensuring“ virtual ”crops. It is no coincidence that Aidarbek Saparov, the well-known specialist in record-breaking “drawing” records, is now the First Deputy Minister of Agriculture. Such people are needed by any minister! And most likely his merit is that the current dry year “suddenly” on paper turned out to be basically non-chemical (yield – 19.7 million tons). Peasants laugh at this figure and point to empty elevators. In reality, experts say that at least a third of this volume is attributed.

Center Fault

However, there was no consistency in the reasoning of Asylzhan Mamytbekov. In one post, having recused himself from the “merit” of the central authorities in the formation of the system of attribution, in another he acknowledged that it was not the regional authorities and the farmers themselves, but the government. However, again “brought” from the strike of the native Ministry of Agriculture, and put all the blame on the Ministry of National Economy! It seems that Asylzhan Sarybayevich, finding these posts on his iPhone, feverishly sought the extreme. Although, the hat was burning on his own head.

So, to quote this sample of resourcefulness and Jesuit logic:

“The underlying causes (paradoxically) go to the top. Firstly, they are drawn into the system that “take it out and put it down,” or rather, show growth, growth in everything. Growth in the index of physical volume, increase in yield, milk yield, weight gain. Indicators for evaluating their activities are built in such a way that they are forced to constantly demonstrate positive dynamics. Regardless of reality.

Secondly, what lies behind the meetings and meetings in the ministries and the Government, especially in the last days of the quarter and the reporting year on the adoption of measures for economic growth. These meetings in the administration are perceived as a clear signal “for appropriate work” with the business. Then these requests appear to increase milk yield, weight gain, and yield.

Accordingly, these rules of the game are formed not in the regions, but in the center. Therefore, to make extreme, to demonize the administration in the issue of distortion of statistics is wrong. Well, the fact that there are employees who can tear down their heads when they are told to just cut their hair, it has always been. And the fact that they are beginning to arrange races among themselves along the way, this can also be attributed to human weaknesses. Well, excitement, what can I do, he’s not used to falling behind, even in this matter.

“Where did the Ministry of agriculture look then” – you ask? The Ministry of agriculture, and all other ministries, are also involved in this “routine” and how the squirrels in the wheel should always run, where? No matter. Run and show growth and good numbers.

I will open the veil, the rules of the game are formed by the super-ministry – the Ministry of National Economy. Of course, they are influenced by PA, various analytical structures under it (such as the Center for Strategic Development and Analysis, etc., “- Mamytbekov wrote.

These revelations are followed by smitten stories of how the Ministry of Agriculture, under the leadership of Asyljan Sarybayevich, heroic fought the vicious practice of rooted “in the top” and “bottom.” But he failed in an unequal fight. Moreover, the ex-minister complained that the attempt to clear the accounts from the attributes to him came out sideways, because on the papers everything looked so that under it the volumes of production decreased.

Mercenary interest

But we are not so naive, and Mamytbekova will never believe in altruism. And especially, I study the topic of attributes, we will not reduce everything to the political benefits that Asylzhan Mamytbekov tried to achieve in his post. Knowing his “entrepreneurship,” you need to look for what he could earn on using inflated reporting?

And here it is time to remember that Mamytbekov is one of the ideologists of the creation of the holding KazAgro. And speaking of grain. Let us focus on only one board of the holding – “Production Corporation.” It is obvious that she was the main beneficiary from the attributes. How? Now we will explain.

“Procorporation,” given the volume of its purchase, has a powerful influence on pricing in the domestic grain market of Kazakhstan. Only in the last few years, due to the high grain production in neighboring Russia, has the factor of cross-border flows become important. And under Mamytbekov everything was simple – “Production Corporation” announces the price of purchase in its resources, and it becomes a reference for the whole market.

So, the price of the purchase is directly tied to the crop volume. The higher the gross fee, the lower the cost of grain is the axiom. The very “Production Corporation” obviously benefits from the low price of purchase. Because having loaded its elevators on cheap in autumn, in spring this structure sells the same grain 50 – 100% more expensive! That is, “Production Corporation” simply maximized its profit, using access to grain harvest! Here is the vested interest of officials who control the activities in general “KazAgro” and “Production Corporation” in particular. And this is first of all – it is Asylzhan Mamytbekov.

Conclusion to the future

This year all Kazakhstanis on themselves (through an explosive increase in prices) experienced the consequences of the fact that our elevators were empty, while on papers in them had to store sufficient volume of reserve grain. We dealt with the reasons and the guilty and brought them to clean water. Further reaction is no longer in our power – let the competent authorities understand.

But we ‘re interested in what happens next season? Will this vicious practice continue. And to whom, like not Asylzhan Mamytbekov, give us an accurate forecast of this! Listen to the pessimistic prediction of the founding father of the circuit curve.

“I ‘m far from thinking that the problem with air numbers is solved. They have been, continue and are likely to continue. There ‘s a lot more to be done to curb this problem. For example, in the tax sphere. Since the Single Land Tax regime, which is enjoyed by many KFKh, does not discourage the ownership of farmers for various reasons, including at the “urgent request” of local akims. If growth in yields, respectively in incomes, had a proportional effect on its increase in tax spending, many farmers would have had to think hard and deny these requests. Well, who will want to ruin the relationship with the local authority?… ”

Yury Volfovich Pominov

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