Grain export prices of Desember 20, 2019

A summary table of prices for grain crops and flour in tenge per ton in Kazakhstan as of December 20, 2019, incl.  12% VAT

Name of region	wheat, grade 3, with gluten		wheat, grade 4	wheat, grade 5	barley	flour
	23-24%	27-30%				premium	1 grade	2 grade
Akmola	78500	83500	64700	57700	51700	134500	12000	103500
Aktobe	82400	—	68900	61900	53400	138000	123500	109000
Almaty	80500	—	66200	59200	53800	136200	121700	107200
East Kazakhstan	79300	—	65900	58400	53100	135000	120500	107000
Zhambyl	80100	—	66000	59000	54800	137000	122500	108000
West Kazakhstan	79900	—	66200	59200	—	136700	123200	108700
Karaganda	81200	85500	67900	60900	52000	135500	121000	106500
Kyzylorda	81900	—	67600	61900	—	136700	122200	108700
Kostanay	79100	84200	65300	58300	52000	133500	119000	104500
Pavlodar	79300	—	66500	58500	52200	134600	120100	105600
North Kazakhstan	77800	84800	64000	56800	51700	132500	118000	103500
Turkestan	80200	85300	66100	59100	54100	137100	122600	108100
Astana city	78800	84400	66000	58200	—	135400	120900	106400
Almaty city	81600	—	67600	60600	—	137600	123100	107600

Export prices for grain crops and flour in dollars per ton, incl.  VAT 0% (ex-elevator) as of December 20, 2019

Station name	wheat, grade 3, with gluten		wheat, grade 4	wheat, grade 5	barley	flour			Delivery conditions
	23-24%	27-30%	—		grade 2	premium	1 grade	2 grade
	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale	Sale
Petropavlovsk station (South Ural Railway)	226-229	253-256	216-219	—	144-147	317-322	283-288	258-263	DAP
station Sary-agash	248-251	278-281	243-246	—	158-161	329-334	295-300	271-276	DAP
Lugovaya station	244-247	272-276	239-242	—	161-164	327-332	293-298	268-273	DAP
Tobol station	235-238	265-268	226-229	—	150-153	328-333	290-295	267-272	DAP
port of Aktau	262-265	289-292	253-256	—	177-180	346-351	311-316	288-293	FOB
Bekabad station	265-268	293-296	258-261	—	183-186	353-358	318-323	305-310	СРТ
Hairaton station	316-319	346-349	307-310	—	230-233	387-392	365-370	330-335	СРТ
Turgundi station	313-316	341-344	300-303	—	240-243	337-342	300-305	273-278	СРТ
station Sarahs	—	—	—	—	225-228	—	—	—	—

This year, exporters of Kazakhstan fell into a situation of shortage of grain resources.  In the current season, much less grain was harvested in Kazakhstan.  This fact, combined with lower initial grain stocks, brought a more meager seasonal grain balance in the 2019-20 marketing year.  Not a very good year will be for mills.  A scarce market for raw materials will make their products more expensive.  In foreign markets, Kazakhstani flour will be partially replaced by another.  Foreign experts from the USDA forecast a record low export of Kazakh crops.  More than 30% lower than last season, and more than 40% lower than the year before last, the analyst of KazakhZerno.kz notes.  The external market conditions can play a cruel joke.  With its favorable combinations, grain will be exported in any case to the detriment of the domestic market.

World market

In November, wheat quotes on the derivatives market advanced even further up.  As in October, wheat contracts in the United States increased in relative proportion the most in November, but this time in slightly less dynamics than a month ago.  British wheat crossed the line by three and a half percent, and French wheat did not reach three.  By absolute price weight in the denominator of the dollar is the French wheat grain.  American corn and soybeans in November could not stand the two-month race up and down, corn to a lesser extent, and soya to a greater extent.  In November, in the foreign exchange market, the dollar strengthened its position against the euro and the pound, in contrast to October.  To a greater extent, this affected the euro.  Nevertheless, a stronger dollar took some value from European quotes in its nominal value.  The dollar rose over the period against the euro from 0.8958 euros per dollar on November 1 to 0.9083 euros per dollar, and against the pound from 0.7724 to 0.7747 pounds per dollar, respectively.

 The International Grain Council (IGC) on November 21 for the 2019-20 seasons increased the forecast for grain production by 5 million tons, from 2157 to 2162 million tons, and the forecast for consumption by 4 million tons, from 2184 to 2188 million tons.  The seasonal balance of production – grain consumption remains in short supply.  Read more further.

Expert Forecasts

In December, the USDA forecast for world wheat production for the 2019-20 seasons was reduced from 765.55 to 765.41 million tons, consumption was reduced from 755.17 to 753.76 million tons.  The export level was reduced from 180.68 to 179.81 million tons, but the ending carry-over stocks of the season were increased from 288.28 to 289.50 million tons.  The forecast for wheat production among its main exporters has increased for Russia and the European Union, decreased for Argentina, Australia and Canada.  For the United States and Ukraine, the forecast remained the same.

 On November 21, in its report, the International Grain Council (IGC) raised its forecast for world grain production in the 2019-20 seasons by 6 million tons, from 2157 to 2162 million tons, the forecast for consumption increased by 4 million tons, from 2184 to 2188 million tons.  Grain trade volumes are expected at the level of 375 million tons with an increase of 1 million tons by the October forecast.  Final carry-over stocks of the season increased by 2 million tons, from 592 to 594 million tons.  This season they are lower than last year by 16 million tons.

 Separately for wheat, the October forecast for November did not change in all respects.  Wheat production will be 762 million tons, consumption of 756 million tons.  The level of trade is 176 million tons.  Final carry-over reserves – 271 million tons.  This season, the remainder of wheat will exceed the level of last season’s residues by 6 million tons.

 Forecasts on the global balance of corn are optimistic in terms of production, consumption and final balance of the season.  For the 2019-20 season, IGC increased the forecast for corn production by 5 million tons, from 1098 to 1103 million tons, the forecast for consumption increased by 4 million tons, from 1138 to 1142 million tons, and the ending carry-over increased by 1 million tons, from 278 to 279 million tons.  Only the level of trade remained unchanged – 168 million tons.

 The forecasts for rice did not change significantly, but production remained at the same level.  In November, the production forecast was 500 million tons, the consumption forecast decreased by 1 million tons, from 496 to 495 million tons, the forecast of final balances, on the contrary, increased by 1 million tons, from 179 to 180 million tons.  The level of trade fell by 1 million tons, from 46 to 45 million tons. 

Dynamics of the derivatives market of wheat, corn and soybeans in November

November

 During the week from November 1 to November 8, wheat quotes in the USA and Europe went apart.  Contracts in the United States lost more than a percent of the value, in France, wheat gained just over half a percent.  In Britain, the growth of quotations was much steeper – more than three percent.  American corn and soybeans followed their wheat and failed in different proportions.  The US dollar in the foreign exchange market last week rose to the pound, and even higher dynamics against the euro and reduced the value of European quotations in its nominal value.

 From November 8 to November 15, wheat quotes in the USA and Europe changed in different directions, but as a result, on the American continent and in France, wheat contracts decreased and increased in Britain.  At the same time, close contracts in France over the last two days of the week did not change the values ​​of American corn and soybeans diverged during the week – corn rose and soybean fell.  In the foreign exchange market over the period, the dollar fell against the pound, but to a small extent, but rose against the euro.  Thus, he supported the British wheat and corrected down in its face value the French grain.

 From November 15 to November 22, for wheat quotes in the USA, it became a period of recovery; they strengthened their positions to a significant extent.  Wheat quotes in France also rose, but in a smaller relative proportion.  In Britain alone, wheat contracts fell within a percent.  American corn and soybeans have fallen, corn to a lesser extent, and soya to a greater extent.  In the foreign exchange market over the past week, the dollar dipped against the euro in more dynamics than the pound, and supported the French and British quotes to varying degrees.

 From November 22 to November 29, wheat quotes in the United States grew rapidly.  Weekly growth was almost four and a half percent.  And this is after a serious increase a week earlier.  French wheat has been rising for the second week in a row and its growth proportions are also increasing.  Only British wheat behaves relatively stably.  Her growth did not exceed a percent.  American corn and soybeans diverged in the directions of movement.  The first has grown, the second has fallen.  The dollar / pound exchange rate was stable last week and remained virtually unchanged over the period.  But against the euro, the dollar rose substantially, dropping French quotes in its face value.

 As a result, in the dollar equivalent from November 1 to November 29, wheat quotes in London increased by 3.6%, in Paris by 2.8%, and in Chicago by 5%.  Corn in the US fell 2.1% and soybeans 6.4%.  In Euro denomination, rapeseed in Paris rose by 0.5% and corn by 1.2%.

Dynamics of quotations of wheat, corn and soybeans on world exchanges from November 1 to 29 (in dollars per ton)

	01.11	08.11	15.11	22.11	29.11	01.11-29.11 + —	01.11-29.11 %
Wheat
SWOT Chicago	189,6	187,5	185,9	190,6	199	9,4	105,0
LIFFE London	179	183,1	185,4	184	185,4	6,4	103,6
MATIF Paris	198,5	196,7	195,5	198,7	204,1	5,6	102,8
Corn SWOT	153	148,3	149,6	148,8	149,8	-3,2	97,9
Soya SWOT	344,2	342	337,4	329,6	322,1	-22,1	93,6

The dynamics of quotes for сolza and corn on the MATIF exchange from November 1 to 29 (in euros per ton)

	01.11	08.11	15.11	22.11	29.11	01.11-29.11 + —	01.11-29.11 %
Colza, MATIF	388,5	389,75	388,25	388,75	390,25	1,75	100,5
Corn, MATIF	164	163,25	164	165	166	2,0	101,2

In October, wheat quotes in the USA, France and Britain remained in the September growth trend, and moved even further up.  The most dynamically increased American wheat – by almost six percent.  British wheat rose to a lesser degree, while French grain did not reach a five percent increase.  American corn went up more confidently in October than a month earlier, soybeans grew in even greater proportion.  The currency market in October played to increase French and British quotes in the American face value, so the dollar fell against the euro from 0.914 euros per dollar on October 1 to 0.8958 euros per dollar on November 1, and against the pound from 0.8125 to 0.7724 pounds per dollar, respectively.

 As a result, in the dollar equivalent from September 27 to November 1, in London, wheat quotes increased by 5.2%, in Paris by 4.4%, and in Chicago by 5.9%.  Corn in the United States grew by 4.8% and soybeans by 6.1%.  In Euro denominations,colza  in Paris rose by 0.6%, while corn remained unchanged.

Cash market for agricultural products FOB in November

In the USA, France, and Russia, FOB wheat prices in November have been mixed.  In the USA, different types of wheat had different dynamics.  SRW soft wheat has grown, hard HRW 11%, on the contrary, has fallen, and HRS high protein has barely changed.  Wheat in the ports of France increased, while Russian Black Sea wheat did not change.  Barley is the opposite situation.  French barley rose, and Russian rose.  By the end of the month, Russian wheat reduced the difference from French wheat from $ 8 to $ 2.  The same difference in favor of Russia and barley in the two countries.  Corn in the United States lost a couple of dollars in November, and Russian was surprisingly stable for a month.  Soybean in the United States and Argentina won back to varying degrees, their prices almost equal.

 As a result, from November 1 to 29, SRW wheat on the FOB basis from ports in the United States increased by $ 12 from $ 230 to $ 242 per ton.  Wheat HRW with a protein content of 11% fell by $ 16 from $ 241 to $ 225 per ton.  HRS high protein wheat grew by $ 1 from $ 269 to $ 270 per ton.  Corn in US ports dropped by $ 2 from $ 175 to $ 173 per ton.

 From November 1 to 29, French wheat in the port of Rouen rose by $ 6 from $ 202 to $ 208 per ton.  Barley from France for the month has not changed, but over the past period it increased by $ 14, from $ 176 to $ 190 per ton.  Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports remained at the same level, and in October rose by 21 dollars, from 189 to 210 dollars per ton.  Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose by $ 2, from $ 186 to $ 188 per ton.  Corn from Russia did not change throughout November, and by the beginning it increased by $ 6, from $ 162 to $ 168 per ton.

 US soybeans on the FOB basis fell $ 12, from $ 361 to $ 349 a ton, and Argentina soybeans fell $ 6, from $ 356 to $ 350 a ton.

Price dynamics of the FOB cash market from November 1 to November 29 for crops in the USA, France, Russia and Argentina, in dollars per ton

Culture	Country	01.11	08.11	15.11	22.11	29.11	01.11-29.11 + —
Wheat SRW	USA	230	228	227	237	242	12
Wheat HRW 11%	USA	241	226	208	214	225	-16
Wheat HRS 14%	USA	269	264	266	267	270	1
Wheat	France	202	201	201	203	208	6
Wheat	Russia	210	206	208	208	210	0
Barley	France	190	186	185	186	190	0
Barley	Russia	186	185	186	186	188	2
Corn	USA	175	173	174	172	173	-2
Corn	Russia	168	168	168	168	168	0
Soybean	USA	361	362	362	354	349	-12
Soybean	Argentina	356	355	355	353	350	-6

Russia

In November, Russian cereals, as well as in October, grew, but in a much smaller proportion than a month earlier.  Corn, which was previously knocked out of the general trend and declined, proceeded to growth.  Grade 3 and 4 food wheat gradually increased over the entire period, but the relative dynamics in grade 4 was higher.  This time, feed wheat rose stronger; in October, it was also a growth leader in the wheat segment.  Food rye slowed down significantly, although it remained the first in absolute growth among other crops in November.  The least barley and corn increased – less than 100 rubles per ton additionally.

 In November, not all grain areas were harvested in Russia.  As of December 6, 126.7 million tons of grain and leguminous crops were threshed.  More details below.

 Harvest 2019

 According to the operational data of the agro-industrial complex management bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, as of December 6, 2019, in the whole country, grain and leguminous crops were threshed from an area of ​​45.3 million hectares, or 96.8% of the sown area (in 2018 – 44,  5 million ha), 126.7 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2018 – 116.6 million tons) with a yield of 28 kg / ha (in 2018 – 26.2 kg / ha).

 Cereal crops

 Of these, wheat was threshed from an area of ​​27.5 million hectares, or 98.1% of the sown area (in 2018 – 26.4 million hectares), 77.9 million tons of grain were threshed (in 2018 – 73.4 million tons) with a yield of 28.3 c / ha (in 2018 – 27.9 c / ha).  Barley is threshed from an area of ​​8.5 million hectares, or 96.6% of the sown area (in 2018 – 7.9 million hectares), 21.6 million tons are threshed (in 2018 – 17.7 million tons) with  yields of 25.4 kg / ha (in 2018 – 22.4 kg / ha).  Corn for grain was threshed from an area of ​​2.4 million hectares, or 92.7% of the sown area (in 2018 – 2.2 million hectares), 14.5 million tons were threshed (in 2018 – 11.1 million tons) with a yield of 60.3 c / ha (in 2018 – 49.4 c / ha).  Rice is threshed from an area of ​​191.7 thousand ha, or 98.8% of the cultivated area (in 2018 – 175.1 thousand ha), 1.2 million tons are threshed (in 2018 – 1.1 million tons) with a yield of 64.9 c / ha (in 2018 – 64.5 c / ha).

 Oilseeds

 Long-flax was harvested from an area of ​​44.9 thousand ha, or 88.8% of the sown area (in 2018 – 41.8 thousand ha).  Sunflower is threshed from an area of ​​8.3 million hectares, or 97.2% of the sown area (in 2018 – 7.8 million hectares), 15.3 million tons are threshed (in 2018 – 12.5 million tons) with yields of 18.5 kg / ha (in 2018 – 16 kg / ha).  Soybean threshed from an area of ​​2.7 million hectares, or 90.2% of the sown area (in 2018 – 2.6 million hectares), 4.5 million tons were threshed (in 2018 – 4 million tons) with a yield of 16, 4 kg / ha (in 2018 – 15.3 kg / ha).  Colza was threshed from an area of ​​1.44 million hectares, or 92.1% of the sown area, 2.2 million tons were threshed (2.1 million tons in 2018) with a yield of 15.6 kg / ha (in 2018 – 14.3 c / ha).

Vegetables

 Sugar beets were dug from an area of ​​1.1 million hectares, or 98.3% of the cultivated area (1.1 million hectares in 2018), 53.3 million tons were accumulated (in 2018 – 41.3 million tons)  with a yield of 473.9 kg / ha (in 2018 – 375.8 kg / ha).

 Potatoes in agricultural enterprises and peasant (farm) enterprises were dug from an area of ​​283.8 thousand ha, or 93.9% of the planted area (in 2018 – 282.6 thousand ha), 7.3 million tons were accumulated (in  2018 – 6.7 million tons) with a yield of 256.7 kg / ha (in 2018 – 237.8 kg / ha).

 Vegetables in agricultural enterprises and peasant (farmer) enterprises were harvested from an area of ​​181.5 thousand ha, or 98.6% of the cultivated area (in 2018 – 147.5 thousand ha), 5.2 million tons were harvested (in  2018 – 4.2 million tons) with a yield of 288.1 kg / ha (in 2018 – 283.5 kg / ha).

 Winter crops were sown on an area of ​​18.2 million hectares, or 104.2% of the projected area (in 2018 – 17.6 million hectares).

 Dynamics of prices for Russian crops in November

 In November, the growth of Russian crops in the US denomination was lower than in rubles, due to the depreciation of the Russian currency against the dollar.  In November, the ruble exchange rate fell from 63.77 rubles per dollar on November 1 to 64.08 rubles per dollar on November 30.  This slightly reduced the dynamics of Russian crops in the US currency.

 Cash in Russian grain in the Black Sea ports on the FOB basis in November did not change in two positions, but increased in one.  Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports remained at the same level, and in October rose by 21 dollars, from 189 to 210 dollars per ton.  Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose by $ 2, from $ 186 to $ 188 per ton.  Corn from Russia did not change throughout November, and by the beginning it increased by $ 6, from $ 162 to $ 168 per ton.

 From November 1 to November 29, in Russia, grade 3 wheat increased by 155 rubles per ton, or 1.3%, grade 4 wheat by 200 rubles per ton, or 1.8%, and feed wheat by 230 rubles per ton,  or 2.2%.  Food rye rose by 460 rubles per ton, or 4%, barley by 90 rubles per ton, or 0.9%, and corn by 50 rubles per ton, by 0.5%.  Peas grew by 195 rubles per ton, by 1.6%.

Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from November 1 to 29, rubles / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	01.11	08.11	15.11	22.11	29.11	01.11-29.11 + —	01.11-29.11 %
Wheat, Grade 3 (gluten 23%)	11 850	11 930	11 965	11 995	12 005	155	101,3
Wheat, Grade 4	11 015	11 060	11 160	11 200	11 215	200	101,8
Food rye	11 400	11 650	11 665	11 860	11 860	460	104,0
Feed wheat	10 555	10 650	10 720	10 755	10 785	230	102,2
Feed barley	9 875	9 925	9 955	9 960	9 965	90	100,9
Feed corn	9 195	9 135	9 135	9 205	9 245	50	100,5
Peas	12 000	12 055	12 195	12 195	12 195	195	101,6

From November 1 to November 29, in the American equivalent, wheat of the 3rd class rose by $ 2.2 per ton, by 1.2%, wheat of the 4th grade – by $ 3 per ton, or 1.7%, feed wheat – by 3.5 dollar per ton, 2.1%.  Food rye increased by 7.1 dollars per ton, by 4%, barley – by 1.3 dollars per ton, by 0.8%, and corn – by 0.7 dollars per ton, by 0.5%.  Peas rose $ 2.9 per ton, or 1.5%.

 Dynamics of grain prices in the European part of Russia from November 1 to 29, dollars / ton on the basis of EXW with VAT

Cereal crops	01.11	08.11	15.11	22.11	29.11	01.11-29.11 + —	01.11-29.11 %
Wheat, Grade 3 (gluten 23%)	$185,1	$187,2	$187,3	$188,3	$187,3	2,2	101,2
Wheat, Grade 4	$172,0	$173,5	$174,7	$175,8	$175,0	3,0	101,7
Food rye	$178,0	$182,8	$182,6	$186,2	$185,1	7,1	104,0
Feed wheat	$164,8	$167,1	$167,8	$168,8	$168,3	3,5	102,1
Feed barley	$154,2	$155,7	$155,8	$156,3	$155,5	1,3	100,8
Feed corn	$143,6	$143,3	$143,0	$144,5	$144,3	0,7	100,5
Peas	$187,4	$189,2	$190,9	$191,4	$190,3	2,9	101,5

The tables used information from the ProZerno agency.

 In October, the main crops increased growth dynamics, again, except for corn, which, as in September, decreased, but to a much lesser extent.  Thus, the corn finally went down below the prices of barley, although at the beginning of the month it was worth more than this grain crop.  Again, food rye turned out to be the growth leader, gaining almost ten percent to its value.  Food wheat grades 3 and 4 rose all month without a kickback.  Feed wheat grew more rapidly than feed barley in absolute and relative proportions.

  The International Grain Council (IGC) in October raised the forecast for grain production for Russia in the 2019-20 season from 112.9 to 114.8 million tons, and exports from 43.6 to 44.5 million tons.

 As in September, the growth dynamics of Russian crops in the US nominal in October was higher than in rubles, due to the growth of the Russian currency against the dollar.  In October, the ruble exchange rate rose from 64.64 rubles per dollar on October 1 to 63.77 rubles per dollar on October 1.  This brought Russian crops an extra cost in US currency.

 Cash Russian wheat in the ports of the Black Sea on the basis of the FOB in October grew by 21 dollars, from 189 to 210 dollars per ton.  Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea rose by $ 8, from $ 178 to $ 186 per ton.  Corn from Russia increased by $ 6, from $ 162 to $ 168 per ton.  On November 1, Russian wheat was more expensive than French by $ 8 per ton, and Russian barley was cheaper by this French grain by $ 4 per ton.

 Russian food exports

 The export of agricultural products from Russia from January 1 to December 8 this year amounted to $ 22.4 billion, the Center for Agricultural Policy of the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia reports with reference to the Federal Customs Service.

 In physical terms, 57.7 million tons of products were delivered abroad.  In particular, wheat exports totaled 29.4 million tons for $ 5.9 billion, barley – 3.4 million tons for $ 667 million, frozen fish – almost 1.4 million tons for $ 2.3 billion, sunflower oil – 2.7 million  tons for $ 1.884 billion, crustaceans – 90.1 thousand tons for $ 1.5 billion.

 A third of exports came from cereals, 20% from fish and crustaceans.  The main export partners were China ($ 2.9 billion), Turkey ($ 2.3 billion), Egypt ($ 1.346 billion), Kazakhstan ($ 1.2 billion).  The foreign trade balance was negative and amounted to $ 3 billion 973.4 million.

 According to the report, product imports for this period amounted to 20 million tons for $ 26.34 billion. Citrus fruits were imported the most at cost – $ 1.067 billion (1.4 million tons).  In addition, 590.6 thousand tons of wine and grape must were imported (for $ 1.04 billion), almost 1.4 million tons of bananas (for $ 1.031 billion), 205.9 thousand tons of cheese and cottage cheese (for $ 847.4  million).

 The largest suppliers of agricultural products to the Russian Federation were Belarus ($ 3.1 billion), China ($ 1.574 billion), Brazil ($ 1.386 billion), Germany ($ 1.223 billion), Ecuador ($ 1.185 billion).

Kazakhstan

 A high difference in the availability of grain this year, with a minus, compared with last year, remains.  She remained at the beginning of December, amounting to 2622213 tons.  Perhaps this difference will further decrease or disappear altogether.  But only if domestic grain consumption and its export volumes decrease.  If grain consumption remains at the level of last year, Kazakhstan will meet a new season with record low grain stocks.  If the decrease is higher, large-scale grain imports are inevitable.

 On November 29, all grain-growing regions showed a 100 percent harvesting campaign result.  According to the data of the regional agricultural departments, as of November 29, 15,274.2 thousand ha were harvested and 19,727.4 thousand tons of grain were harvested with an average yield of 12.9 c / ha.  Last year, 15073.7 thousand ha were harvested and 22844.1 thousand tons were harvested with a yield of 15.2 c / ha.

 In the context of individual regions, three regions of the grain belt of Kazakhstan received the highest yield.  Of the twelve grain-sowing regions, a crop of more than 1 million tons took place in four regions of the republic.  These are Akmola region – 5124.1 thousand tons, North Kazakhstan region – 4794.3 thousand tons, Kostanai region – 3002.7 thousand tons and Almaty region – 1429.44 thousand tons.  The smallest grain crop in the West Kazakhstan region is 249 thousand tons.

 The number of regions where the volume of the crop decreased and increased in relation to the previous year was divided exactly by half.  Crops declined in six regions and increased in six.  A decrease in yield in the largest cereal regions led to a general negative result.

 Expert Forecasts

 In the December USDA Agricultural Service report for Kazakhstan in the 2019-20 season, the data on wheat production and export remained the same.  Wheat production was last reduced from 13 to 11.5 million tons.  This is the lowest production rate of this grain in six years.  In the last 2018-19 season, production amounted to 13.947 million tons.  Wheat export from Kazakhstan was reduced from 6.5 to 5.2 million tons.  Last season, according to this expert group, wheat exports were 8.3 million tons.  And in the 2017-18 marketing year, exports amounted to 9 million tons.  The end stocks of the current season are projected to be extremely low – only 1.44 million tons.

 In the latest report of the International Grain Council (IGC), published on November 21, the forecast for grain production in Kazakhstan for the 2019-20 season was left unchanged – 16.8 million tons.  Meanwhile, in the 2018-19 season, the harvest was 2.4 million tons more.  A year earlier, Kazakhstani farmers collected 19.3 million tons from their fields.

 For some positions, the forecast data in November changed.The level of domestic grain consumption was increased due to an increase in its expenditures for feed purposes, and the level of export was reduced.  In total, in the 2019-20 season in Kazakhstan with initial reserves of 2.3 million tons, 16.8 million tons will be obtained, imports will be 1.1 million tons, the seasonal grain balance will be 20.2 million tons, of which  9.9 million tons will be spent on food, feed and technical purposes within the republic (9.8 million tons in the October forecast).  The volume of exports was reduced by 0.1 million tons, from 8.1 to 8 million tons, and the final stocks will remain the same – 2.3 million tons.

 Separately for wheat, the November forecast for Kazakhstan has not changed.  With initial reserves of 1.8 million tons, the crop will be 11.5 million tons.  1 million tons will be imported and the seasonal balance is set at 14.3 million tons.  6 million tons will be consumed for consumption, and 6.7 million tons for export.  As a result, the final balances will decrease to 1.7 million tons.  Compared to last year, wheat production will decrease by 2.4 million tons, imports will increase 10 times, and consumption will fall by 0.4 million tons and exports by 2 million tons.

Dynamics of grain stocks

In November, the flow of grain from the fields ceases, and the grain balance of Kazakhstan goes into a mode of volume reduction.  So it was last year.  In November, grain traditionally decreases more than the average for the following months, since during this period the processes of grain reflux during drying and cleaning occur most actively.  Last year, grain volumes for November decreased in a smaller proportion, but in large absolute values, since grain as of November 1, 2018 was almost 3 million tons more than as of November 1, 2019.  In November, by December 1, the volumes of food and feed grain decreased, but grain stocks for seeds increased.

 Recall that in October the harvesting campaign in Kazakhstan basically ended.  By November 1, 99.9% of the harvested area, or 15,254.6 thousand ha, had been harvested in the republic.  Remained uncleared areas in the south of Kazakhstan – in Almaty, Zhambyl and Turkestan regions.  According to the regional agricultural departments, at the beginning of November, 19592.5 thousand tons of grain in bunker weight were harvested in Kazakhstan with a yield of 12.8 centners per hectare.  Last year, 22,670.4 thousand tons of grain were obtained with a yield of 15.1 centners per hectare.  The October harvest, taking into account grain that has been disposed of as a result of domestic consumption, export and import, losses and grain reflux, brought the republic about 3 million tons more.

 By the beginning of the new season in Kazakhstan, 3991767 tons were recorded with a decrease of 1302697 tons, or 24.6%.  In July, grain stocks in Kazakhstan decreased from 3991767 to 3468869 tons, by 522898 tons, or 13.1%.  In August, the volume of grain increased from 3468869 to 5106469.5 tons, by 1,637,600.5 tons, or 47.2%.  In September to October 1, the amount of grain increased from 5106469 to 12654519 tons and increased by 7548049 tons, or 2.45 times.  During October, grain increased by another 2946114 tons, up to 15600633 tons, or 23.3%.  By December 1, statistics took into account 13172139 tons of grain with a decrease in November by 2428494 tons, or by 15.6%.

 The amount of food grain decreased from 11452268 tons on November 1 to 9446763 tons on December 1, 2005505 tons, or 17.5%.  The seed grain fund increased in volume from 1331427 to 1431380 tons, by 99953 tons, or 7.5%, and feed grain stocks decreased from 2816937 to 2293996 tons, by 522941 tons, or by 18.6%.

Grain stocks in Kazakhstan as of December 1, 2019

	November 1st	December 1st	December to November + –	December to November, %
Total crops	15 600 633	13 172 139	-2428494	84,4
for food	11 452 268	9 446 763	-2005505	82,5
for seeds	1 331 427	1 431 380	99953	107,5
on fodder	2 816 937	2 293 996	-522941	81,4

In November, the volumes of all major crops, without exception, decreased.  Stocks of wheat, barley, rice and corn decreased by more than 100 thousand tons.  In terms of relative to the previous month, stocks of almost all crops, except wheat, decreased in a more significant progression than the average for all crops.  Corn stocks sank to the greatest extent – about a third of stocks.  Volumes of oats decreased by more than 30%, and stocks of rye, rice, millet and barley decreased by more than 20%.

 In November to December 1, the volume of wheat decreased by 1455162 tons, from 11328179 tons on November 1 to 9873017 tons on December 1, or 12.8%, corn – by 106.232 tons, from 320284 to 214052 tons, or 33.2%, rice – by 133040 tons, from 451837 to 318797 tons, or by 29.4%.  The amount of barley decreased by 581783 tons, from 2835157 to 2253374 tons, or 20.5%, rye – by 6205 tons, from 20872 to 14667 tons, or 19.7%, oats – by 86,688 tons, from 283308 to 196620 tons, or 30.6%.  Buckwheat decreased by 9333 tons, from 51814 to 42481 tons, or 18%, millet – by 5552 tons, from 24774 to 19222 tons, or 22.4%, and cereal mixtures by 10957 tons, from 67868 to 56911 tons, or 16.1%.

Dynamics of grain stocks from July to December in 2018 and 2019

	July 1	August 1	September 1	October 1	November 1	December 1
2019	3991767	3468869	5106469	12654519	15600633	13172139
2018	5190837	4378471	5571662	15639739	18502335	15794352
Difference 2019 to 2018 + –	-1199070	-909602	-465193	-2985220	-2901702	-2622213

Will Kazakhstan have enough grain for trade before the end of the season?

 We do not know how intensively grain will decrease in December, January and in the following months.  If the volumes of domestic consumption are more or less predictable and they can be fully compared with the indicators of the last season, then what will be the level of export?  But it can be high if there is a favorable situation on world markets.  Then a less liquid domestic market will be ignored.  So far, the dynamics of wheat futures in the world shows the dynamics of growth.  But this is a separate issue.

 Suppose that if the grain decline in the current season remains at the level of the 2018-19 season, grain in Kazakhstan by July 1 will practically remain just a little more than 1 million tons.  Last season, the average monthly decline in grain for export and domestic market from December to June amounted to 1686083 tons.  In total for this period, including the cost of grain for the sowing campaign, 1,1802585 tons were consumed.  If we assume the same costs in the following months of the 2019-20 season, then by July 1, the republic will come with grain reserves of only 1369554 tons.

 At the moment, the following domestic prices have developed:

 At the moment, in the capital of the republic, Nur-Sultan, grade 3 wheat is sold at 78,800 tenge per ton.  Flour of the first grade in the capital is sold at 120,900 tenge per ton, the highest grade – at 135400 tenge per ton.  The second grade of flour in the markets costs 106400 tenge per ton.

 In the Akmola region, a ton of wheat of the 3rd grade is sold at 78,500 tenge, and wheat above 27% gluten – for 83,500 tenge per ton, barley of the 2nd grade costs 51,700 tenge per ton.  The highest grade of flour is currently sold at 134500 tenge, flour of the 1st and 2nd grades is offered at 120,000 tenge and 103500 tenge per ton, respectively.

 In the North Kazakhstan region, 3 classes of wheat are sold at 78,700 tenge, wheat above 27% gluten – for 84,800 tenge.  Barley in North-Kazakhstan region is currently sold at 51,700 tenge per ton.  North-Kazakhstan residents sell premium flour at 132500 tenge per ton, and 1st grade – at 118,000 tenge per ton.  Flour of the 2nd grade leaves at 103,500 tenge per ton.

 In the Kostanay region, the price of class 3 wheat reached 79,100 tenge per ton, wheat above 27% gluten costs 84,200 tenge.  Barley 2 classes Kostanay farmers offer 52,000 tenge per ton.  The market value of flour of all varieties: the highest – 133500 tenge, the first grade in the region is traded at 119000 tenge.  Flour of the 2nd grade in Kostanay region costs 104500 tenge per ton.

 In Pavlodar region a ton of wheat of 3 classes is sold for 79300 tenge, barley – at 52,200 tenge per ton.Flour prices in Pavlodar region were as follows: top grade – 134600 tenge per ton, 1 grade – 120 100 tenge per ton, 2 grade – 105600 tenge per ton.

 In the Karaganda region, a ton of grade 3 wheat costs 81,200 tenge, wheat above 27% gluten – 85,500 tenge per ton.  Barley – 52,000 tenge per ton.  The highest grade of flour is traded at 135500 tenge per ton, flour of the 1st and 2nd grades is sold at 121,000 tenge and 106500 tenge per ton.

 Grade 3 wheat in the East Kazakhstan region is sold at 79,300 tenge per ton, barley – 53,100 tenge per ton.  Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades in East Kazakhstan is sold at 135,000, 120,500 and 107,000 tenge per ton, respectively.

 In the West Kazakhstan region, the price of wheat of 3 classes is at the level of 79900 tenge per ton.  Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades in WKO is sold at 136700, 123200, 108700 tenge respectively.

 Currently, in the Almaty region, 3 classes of wheat are offered at 80,500 tenge per ton.  Barley – at 53800 tenge per ton.  Top grade flour costs about 136200 tenge per ton, 1 grade – 121700 tenge per ton.  Flour of the 2nd grade is sold at 107,200 tenge per ton.

 Wheat of the 3rd class in the Zhambyl region is currently sold at 80,000 tenge per ton, and barley of the second class at 54,800 tenge per ton.  Top-grade flour in the region is sold at 137,000 tenge, 1 grade is traded in the region of 122500 tenge, 2 grade – 108,000 tenge per ton.

 In the Turkestan region, class 3 wheat is sold at 80,200 tenge per ton, and barley – 54,100 tenge per ton.  The cost of flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade is currently fixed at 137100, 122600 and 108100 tenge per ton.

 In the Aktobe region, wheat of the 3rd class costs 82,400, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades is sold at 138,000, 123500 and 109,000 tenge per ton.

 In the Kyzylorda region, wheat of the 3rd class costs 81,900 tenge per ton.  Flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grades are sold at 136700, 122200 and 108700 tenge per ton.

 In the southern capital, Almaty, grade 3 wheat is sold at 81,600 tenge per ton.  The highest grade of flour in Almaty costs 137600 tenge per ton, the 1st and 2nd grade leaves the markets for 123100 and 107600 tenge per ton, respectively, for export

 Grade 3 wheat with a gluten content of 23% on DAP conditions from the Lugovaya station (Kazakhstan-Kyrgyzstan) is sold (hereinafter dollars per ton) at $ 244-247, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 272-276, barley – 161-164  , flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs 327-332, 293-298, 268-273 dollars per ton.Grade 3 wheat from elevators of the South Ural Railway is currently sold at $ 226-229, wheat above 27% gluten – $ 253-256, barley – for $ 144-147, premium, 1st and 2nd grade flour – at $ 317  -322, $ 283-288 and $ 258-263 respectively.

 At the Sary-Agash station (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan, DAP), the 3rd class of wheat costs $ 248-251, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 278-281, barley – 158-161, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs  329-334, 295-300, 271-276 dollars per ton.

 At the Tobol station (DAP), a class 3 wheat costs $ 235-238, wheat with gluten 27-30% – 265-268, barley – 150-153, flour of the highest, 1st and 2nd grade costs 328-333, 290-295, 267-272 dollars per ton.

 At Khairaton station (Uzbekistan-Afghanistan, CPT), the price of wheat of the 3rd class is $ 316-319, for wheat with gluten 27-30% – 346-349, barley – 230-233, flour of the first, 1st and 2nd grade  – 387-392, 365-370, 330-335 dollars per ton.

 In the port of Aktau, on FOB terms, wheat is sold at $ 262-265, with gluten above 27% – $ 289-292, barley – $ 177-180.  Premium, first and second grade flour can be bought for $ 346-351, $ 311-316 and $ 288-293 per ton.    

Alimbek Gabitov