With the upward revision of grain production forecasts the world export market becomes more crowded and Kazakhstan is in the thick of the press

Новость на Казах-зерно:

This year, the weather conditions, marked by prolonged dry weather in June and then the cool and rainy period in July and early August, have left their negative impact on the maturation of plants. There was a delay in their development, and wheat began to lose in quality, so strongly desired in world markets. This year’s harvest will be higher, but what will be the quality of grain, and the volume of wheat of 3 and higher classes. This worries the farmers.

Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, the grain harvesting campaign is in full swing. On August 28, in the summary report of the Ministry of Agriculture were published the first data on harvested grain and yields in the Akmola region. The very first results showed grain yield in the region at the level of 9.5 quintals per hectare. But these data were received as the result of threshing of only 1% of the harvested area. On September 9, after threshing 14 % of the area, the average yield in the region amounted to 10.1 q/ha, which, respectively, changed the picture of estimate indicator on projected harvest in this region. And on September 13, yield index in this region has increased to 10.6 quintals per hectare.

From August 28, we can say that the harvesting campaign began and is being held across the territory of Kazakhstan, and in Zhambyl region it had been already finished. By September 9, yield indexes have changed in other region as well. Somewhere a revision was upward and in other places was observed a decline. In Kostanay region with the transition of harvesting campaign in the more prosperous areas the average yield increased from 8.2 to 9.4 q/ ha, which allowed an increase in the estimated forecast of more than 14% growth. However, in the North Kazakhstan region the average yield decreased from 13.8 to 13.5 q / ha. This has reduced the forecast by 4.7%.

The first decade of September showed the growing rate of the grain harvest in the country, especially in major grain-producing regions of the republic. Thanks to the dry and warm weather during this period in Kostanay and North Kazakhstan regions farmers managed to thresh for the period from August 28 to September 9, about 1192.4 and 1147.8 thousand tons of grain, respectively, with the pace of harvesting of 103 and 71 thousand hectares per day. Total, in the country during these days was gathered 3552.2 thousand tons of grain, which is higher than the amount collected during all the previous term of harvesting works in Kazakhstan. As a result, on September 9, growers received 5,599.5 thousand tons of grain in bunker weight from 30% of the total harvested area.

By September 13, the pace of harvesting has become even higher. During 4 days Kazakh grain farmers gathered grain from 10.3% of the total harvested area and harvested 7,515.9 thousand grains in bunker weight. The highest pace in those days took showed Akmola and Kostanay regions. In the North Kazakhstan region harvesting speed was lower because of the rains in the region in the beginning of the week.

This year’s summer weather conditions, marked by prolonged dry weather in June and then the cool and rainy period in July and early August, left their negative impact on the maturation of plants. There was a delay in their development, and by mid-August grains in the northern regions were not ready for the harvest. Therefore, the beginning of mass harvesting campaign was essentially moved to a later date, thus creating additional risks for farmers and reducing the productive time of harvesting.

If in the southern regions the pace of harvesting is more or less in line with last year’s figures, in the northern areas the backlog exceeds double sizes. For example, in the Kostanay region, on September 9, 2012 has been harvested 74.9 % of the area, and in 2013 – only 35.2%, in the North Kazakhstan – 70.8% and 25.2 %, in Akmola – 66.1 % and 14%. So, this year high rate of harvesting is extremely important, in order to remove the remainder of the harvest before the onset of lingering autumn rains.

Taken into account current balance of grain on September 1

By September 1, the balance of grains in Kazakhstan has gained positive momentum and increased in volume. On August 1, according to the Statistics Agency, cereal stocks in Kazakhstan amounted to 4,174,307 tons, and on September 1, 4,428,399 tons. Total balance of grains for August in Kazakhstan increased by 254,092 tons, or 6%.

But in the context of individual crops the dynamic of balance were mixed. The increase of the balance was due to such crops as barley, rye, oats, buckwheat, and millet. These cultures are actively gathered in August and their share in the overall balance has increased significantly. Conversely, the amount of wheat became lower; its increase in August did not cover departure of the grain as a result of consumption and exports. The volume of maize and rice also became lower. Periods of harvesting of these crops have not yet begun in August.

In the structure of the grain on August 1, the amount of wheat in relation to other crops was 3,908,572 tons (93.6% of total reserves). The volume of barley in the bins of the republic, on August 1, was 143,993 tons (3.4%). The amount of rice in Kazakhstan at that date was 30,091 tons (0.72%), oats – 4,236 (0.1%), and 7,883 tons of corn (0.19%), buckwheat 10,405 (0.24%), rye – 4,236 (0.1%).

But, on September 1, grain structure changed significantly. On September 1, the amount of wheat in relation to other cultures has become smaller – 3,903,363 tons (88.1% of total reserves). The volume of barley in the bins of the republic totaled 368,162 tons (8.3%). The quantity of rice in Kazakhstan at that date was 22 308 tons (0.5%), oats – 32,505 (0.73%), and 6,492 tons of corn (0.14%), buckwheat – 10,405 (0.26%), rye – 28,891 (0.65%).

Most of the grains, on September 1, was concentrated in the CRP and elevators – 2,592,777 tons (2,690,247 tons in August), in the agricultural enterprises – 944,161 tons (732,267 tons). On mills was 529,696 tons (602,994), and on the farms – 361,765 tons (148,799).

Actual balance of grain (estimates)

During September 2013, starting from August 28 to September 13, in Kazakhstan had been harvested about 5468 thousand tons of grain. As a result, taking into account the carry-over stocks on September 1, actual balance of grain in the republic at present could conceivably be about 9.9 million tons, deducting consumption and net exports for the same period.

Crop forecast-2013

Having data on primary productivity in all grain-producing regions of Kazakhstan, we can talk about the expected amount of crops throughout the country and in each region separately more closely to the topic. Thus, while maintaining productivity in regions at about the same level until the end of the harvest, as of September 9, it can be noted that the leader in the volume of the harvest this year will once again be the North- Kazakhstan region. Recent data, on September 13, only confirmed this forecast.

In 2013 North-Kazakhstan region can obtained the harvest of about 4.82 million tons (unchanged), in Akmola region – 4.48 million tons (4.28 million tons as of September 9), in in Kostanay region 4.27 million tons (4.11 million tons) . In East Kazakhstan growers will get about 0.96 million tons, in Almaty region – 0.8 million tons, in Pavlodar region – about 0.7 million tons, and in Karaganda region – about 0.6 million tons. Below the level of 0.5 million tons will be the harvest in Aktobe, Zhambyl, West Kazakhstan and Kyzylorda regions. As a result, in general, Kazakhstan this year could get a harvest of about 17.5 million tons.

About the same forecast for the harvest in Kazakhstan and gives the international community of experts – the International Grains Council (IGC). According to the recent report of the IGC, published Aug. 30, forecast for grain harvest in Kazakhstan was increased from 16.2 to 16.8 million tons, of which 14 million tons is wheat, and the rest will fall to other cereal crops. Export forecast for Kazakhstan was also raised from 6.7 to 7.2 million tons.

Another expert community – USDA – in its August report raised its forecast for wheat production in Kazakhstan by 2.5 million tons to 17 million tons. Forecast for export was also increased by 2.5 million tons to 9.5 million tons.

It is clear that the current yield of grain can and will change during the harvesting campaign, both in the direction of increasing and decreasing. However, we have no reason to believe that it can change too much. We recall, the grain harvest in Kazakhstan in 2010 amounted to 12.185 million tons, in 2011 – 26.9605, and in 2012 – 12.8648 million tons.

The exchange trading and prices

From August 16 to September 8 at the ETS Exchange took place some transactions for wheat of 3 class, white sugar, food barley and flax seeds. The dynamics of trading, the volume of transactions and prices of agricultural products on a weekly basis at the stock exchange look as follows:

From August 16 to August 23, at the ETS Exchange took place 21 transactions for wheat of 3 class. It was sold 62,151 tons of wheat in the amount 2,049,105,968 tenge, or $13,450,864.3. The average transaction price last week was 32,969.8 tenge per ton of wheat. Compared with the previous week the average price decreased by 1,825.1 tenge per ton. During the week was made 47 transactions for sugar on the basis CPT and EXW including VAT. It was sold 6,403 tons of white sugar in the amount of 739,904,000 tenge. The average price of sugar was 115,555.8 tenge per ton.

From August 23 to August 30 at the ETS Exchange took place 29 transactions for wheat of 3 class. It was sold 198,508 tons of wheat in the amount 6,542,151,000 tenge, or $173,693,694. The average transaction price last week was 32956.6 tenge per ton of wheat. Compared with the previous week the average price decreased by 13.2 tenge per ton. During the week was made 58 transactions for sugar on the basis CPT and EXW including VAT. It was sold 11,301 tons of white sugar in the amount of 1,303,959,840 tenge. The average price of sugar was 115,384.5 tenge per ton.

From August 30 to September 6 at the ETS Exchange took place 38 transactions for wheat of 3 class. It was sold 244,323 tons of wheat in the amount 7,682,787,000 tenge, or $ 50,191,340.2. The average transaction price last week was 31445.2 tenge per ton of wheat. Compared with the previous week the average price decreased by 1511.4 tenge per ton. During the week was made 62 transactions for sugar on the basis CPT and EXW including VAT. It was sold 4,930 tons of white sugar in the amount of 584,390,000 tenge. The average price of sugar was 118,537.5 tenge per ton.

This week at the ETS Exchange took place transactions for oilseed flax and barley. One transaction was for flax seeds on the basis EXW c VAT. It was sold 1,000 tons of seeds at the price of 55,000 tenge per ton in the amount of 55 million tenge. Barley for food purposes is sold on the EXW basis including VAT. One transaction took place and it was sold 3,000 tons of barley at the price of 17,000 tenge per ton in the amount of 51 million tenge.

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Currently, you can buy wheat of 3 class from new harvest in Astana for 28,800 tenge ($187.46; here and further is applied the exchange rate of National Bank of Kazakhstan on 09/13/2013) per ton. First-rate flour in the capital of our country costs 50,000 tenge ($325.42) per ton. Second-rate flour is sold by 52,400 tenge ($341.08) per ton. Flour of extra-class costs 46,300 tenge ($301.37) per ton.

A ton of wheat of 3 class can be purchased for 26,300 tenge ($171.19), wheat with gluten content above 27 percent – for 28,100 tenge per ton ($182.91), barley of a 2 class now costs 27,800 tenge ($180.95) per ton in Akmola region. Flour of extra class costs 50,300 tenge ($329.3), first- and second-rate flour is offered at 47,800 tenge ($313) and 43,800 tenge per ton ($287), respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is sold by 26,100 tenge ($169.89) per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent – by 28,600 tenge ($186.16). The current price of barley is 24,800 tenge per ton ($161.43). In the North Kazakhstan the price of flour of extra class is 48,300 tenge per ton ($314.39); first-rate flour costs 45,900 tenge ($301) and second-rate flour costs 43,300 tenge per ton ($284).

In Kostanay region the price of wheat of 3 class rose to the level of 26,200 tenge per ton ($170.54). Wheat with gluten content above 27 percent is sold at 28,000 tenge ($182.26). The price of barley of 2 class is 24,600 tenge ($160.12) per ton. The market price of flour of all classes went down: extra class – to 48,000 tenge per ton ($314), first-rate – to 45,000 tenge ($295) and second-rate flour to 42,500 tenge ($278) per ton.

In Pavlodar region the price of wheat of 3 class is 27,900 tenge per ton, or $ 181.6 per ton. The price of barley is 26,700 tenge ($173.79) per ton. Flour of extra class costs 51,400 tenge ($337) per ton, first-rate flour costs 50,000 tenge ($327) per ton, second-rate flour costs 45,400 tenge ($297) per ton.

In Karaganda region wheat of 3 class costs 27,900 tenge ($181.6) per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent costs 29,300 tenge ($190.72) per ton. The price of barley is 27,650 tenge ($179.98) per ton. In Karaganda, traders sell flour of all rates at the following prices: first-rate – 50,300 tenge ($329.3) per ton, second-rate –47,300 tenge ($310) per ton and extra class –53,000 tenge ($347) per ton.

In the East Kazakhstan region of the country the price of wheat of 3 class fixed at 28,000 tenge ($182.26) per ton, barley – 26,600 tenge per ton ($173.14). In the West of the country wheat of 3 class costs 33,400 tenge ($217.41). The cost of first-rate flour in East Kazakhstan is 50,100 tenge ($328) per ton, second-rate flour costs 45,700 tenge ($299.18), per ton, and flour of extra class – 53,000 tenge ($347) per ton. In the West Kazakhstan prices for flour are as follows: extra class costs 52,000 tenge ($340.43), first-rate –48,800 tenge ($317.61), second- rate -45,800 tenge ($300) respectively.

In Almaty region the price of wheat of 3 class for today is offered by 29,200 tenge ($190.07) per ton. Barley of 2 class is sold by 27,500 tenge ($179) per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 54,000 tenge ($354) per ton, first-rate –51,400 tenge ($337) per ton, second-rate – 48,700 tenge ($319) per ton.

In Zhambyl region the price of wheat of 3 class for today costs 29,600 tenge ($192.67) per ton, barley of 2 class is sold by 28,300 tenge ($184.21) per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 54,200 tenge ($356) per ton, first-rate –51,800 tenge ($339.12) per ton, second-rate – 49,700 tenge ($325.37) per ton.

In the South Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is offered by 29,500 tenge ($192.02) per ton, barley – by 28,600 tenge ($186.16) per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 54,300 tenge ($356) per ton, first-rate – 51,100 tenge ($335) per ton, second-rate –47,000 tenge ($307) per ton.

In Aktobe region wheat of 3 class is offered by 29,700 ($193.32). Flour of extra class can be purchased for 55,900 ($366) per ton, first-rate – 51,300 tenge ($336) per ton, second-rate – 49,000 tenge ($321) per ton.

In Kyzylorda region wheat of 3 class is sold currently at 30,100 tenge ($195.92) per ton. The cost of flour of extra class is 55,200 tenge ($361.37) per ton, first-rate – 52,400 tenge ($343.04) per ton and second-rate – 49,400 tenge ($323.4) per ton.

In the south capital, Almaty, you can buy wheat of 3 class by 29,000 ($188.76) per ton. Flour of extra class costs in Almaty 55,000 tenge ($360.07) per ton, first-rate – 52,000 ($340.43), and second-rate – 49,000 tenge ($321) per ton, respectively.

As you can see, the table of prices for Kazakhstanian wheat, barley and flour on export borders of the Republic is provided with a running start at 7-10 dollars. It is advised to add so much to the real price of exporters, taking into account new tariffs of Kaztemirtrans.

The cost of wheat of 3 class with gluten content of 23 percent on DAP terms at the station Lugovaya (Kazakhstan – Kyrgyzstan) is $215-225 per ton, with gluten content of 27-30 percent – $226-235 per ton. Barley costs $186-196 per ton. Flour of extra class is sold by $380-391; the cost of first-rate flour is $362-374 and the second-rate -$ 340-352 per ton.

At the elevators of the South Ural railway the current cost of wheat of 3 class is $180-192 per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent – $192-202. The price of barley there is $154-164 per ton. Flour of extra class can be bought by $359-370; first-rate flour is $344-356 and the second-rate – $320-332 per ton.

At the station Sary-Agash (Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan, DAP) wheat of 3 class costs $218-228, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent – $222-232. The price of barley there is $182-192. Flour of extra class can be bought by $384-395, first-rate flour is $340-352 and the second-rate -$313-325 per ton.

At the station Tobol (DAP) wheat of 3 class costs $187-197, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent – $205-215. Barley is sold by $206-216 per ton. Flour of extra class can be bought by $366-378, first-rate flour is $352-361 and the second-rate -$333-345 per ton.

The average price of wheat of 3 class at the station Hajraton (Uzbekistan – Tajikistan, CPT) is $302-312 per ton; wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent is sold by $319-328 per ton. Barley can be bought by $257-267 per ton. Flour of extra class is offered by $456-467, first-rate flour is $442-454 and the second-rate – $422-435 per ton.

In the port of Aktau on FOB conditions wheat is sold by $228-239, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent is sold at $239-250, barley – $214-224. Flour of extra class is sold by $405-417, first-rate flour – by $402-413 and second-rate – by $374-386 per ton.

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